ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

While the core of Milton is too far to be observed by NEXRAD radars, and we do not have aircraft reconnaissance until tomorrow morning, we do have satellites that observe in the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum that can shed light on Milton's internal structure. In short, despite Milton's recent formation and estimated tropical storm status, it does appear rather surprisingly to be on its way to forming a partial eyewall this evening. Frankly, this is a bit of a surprising degree of organization this early on. Hurricane Hunters should arrive around 8 am eastern tomorrow to provide more insights on Milton's strength and internal organization.

Source: US Naval Research Laboratory (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcweb/)

[Hurricane2022]

While the core of Milton is too far to be observed by NEXRAD radars, and we do not have aircraft reconnaissance until tomorrow morning, we do have satellites that observe in the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum that can shed light on Milton's internal structure. In short, despite Milton's recent formation and estimated tropical storm status, it does appear rather surprisingly to be on its way to forming a partial eyewall this evening. Frankly, this is a bit of a surprising degree of organization this early on. Hurricane Hunters should arrive around 8 am eastern tomorrow to provide more insights on Milton's strength and internal organization.

Source: US Naval Research Laboratory (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcweb/)
https://i.imgur.com/Mbqi2Br.png

What the hellllll

[Hurricaneman]

While the core of Milton is too far to be observed by NEXRAD radars, and we do not have aircraft reconnaissance until tomorrow morning, we do have satellites that observe in the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum that can shed light on Milton's internal structure. In short, despite Milton's recent formation and estimated tropical storm status, it does appear rather surprisingly to be on its way to forming a partial eyewall this evening. Frankly, this is a bit of a surprising degree of organization this early on. Hurricane Hunters should arrive around 8 am eastern tomorrow to provide more insights on Milton's strength and internal organization.

Source: US Naval Research Laboratory (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcweb/)
https://i.imgur.com/Mbqi2Br.png

Based on this I wouldn’t be surprised to see a hurricane when recon gets there

[eastcoastFL]

Think we’re starting to see revolving convective bursts around the center, on the north side of the main blob. If so, that provides evidence for a fairly well organized low level core structure, which was hinted at in earlier microwave imagery. Milton may already be a bit stronger than it’s been letting on.

It does look like he’s starting to put something together,

[Grumpy]

A couple observations from afar...

For years, I've created folders on my computer to save model runs, satellite loops, radar images and the like of significant tropical cyclones and severe weather/tornado outbreaks. I think this morning was the first time I preemptively titled the folder "Hurricane (name)" while the system was still a tropical depression.

I've noticed a lot of people throwing out the old "Well, storms always come into the west coast of Florida further south than originally expected" here and on other weather forums, citing events like Charley, Irma, and Ian. However, all of those were making a "right hook" on the recurve from a westward/northwestward track across the Straights or Caribbean. This is a much different setup and I think the conventional wisdom has to be thrown out.

It's quite rare to have a nearly perpendicular strike on the west coast. This storm...even if it begins to unravel as it nears the coast...will have traversed the entire length of the gulf building up seas and surge potential the whole time...then slamming that energy into a uniquely surge prone coast...I'm thinking this is a disaster in the making for someone..

I took a 4 mile walk on Siesta Key this morning. They're still cleaning up from last week. The beach, 200 yrds from the Gulf of Mexico is saturated, like swamp saturated on the sand. There were alreafy thousands of seagulls huddled up on the beach. The Myakka River is less than 1 ft from being at flood level. Any serious rain from this and it will be a $#!+$h0w in the Bradenton/Sarasota/Venice/North Port area.

[zzzh]

While the core of Milton is too far to be observed by NEXRAD radars, and we do not have aircraft reconnaissance until tomorrow morning, we do have satellites that observe in the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum that can shed light on Milton's internal structure. In short, despite Milton's recent formation and estimated tropical storm status, it does appear rather surprisingly to be on its way to forming a partial eyewall this evening. Frankly, this is a bit of a surprising degree of organization this early on. Hurricane Hunters should arrive around 8 am eastern tomorrow to provide more insights on Milton's strength and internal organization.

Source: US Naval Research Laboratory (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcweb/)
https://i.imgur.com/Mbqi2Br.png

Indeed.

[floridasun]

so south fl off cone at 11pm or nhc keep it same?

[fci]

so south fl off cone at 11pm or nhc keep it same?

NHC does not manipulate the cone.
They put in the track and it’s mathematical from there.

[caneseddy]

The only announcement from Disney is that they are pausing hotel reservations for Wednesday and Thursday and also to expect park closures

No official announcement on closures yet

[Sciencerocks]

[Michele B]

Well, I am not leaving yet, I will probably make my decision tuesday night, because I know it's gonna be a nightmare to get any bit really far north, I just need to get out of the surge zone and 15-20 miles North and possbily east should accomplish that. The models still aren't really going much further south, and comparatively not very far north, plus just north of Tampa bay isn't much better than into Tampa bay.

Tuesday night may be too late as TS conditions could begin then. I'm tentatively leaving at dawn (or just before) on Tuesday morning.

The way I figure it, I only really need to get inland maybe 20 or 30 minutes away and find a solid structure and hope I have a place to come back to, I could probably do that tuesday early in the evening as long the timeline doesn't drastically move faster.

If lots of other people think like you, you could end up in a huge traffic jam and 20-30 mins would take you 3-4 HOURS to traverse. And going farther and farther as the closer hotel rooms (I assume you're looking for a hotel room), will fill up fast once others make that decision to bug out.

[sponger]

I managed to get a generator. They were flying off the shelf after a truck dropped them off at Home Depot. If we get a cat 3 direct hit I imagine there won’t be power here for weeks. Iam in zone C which has me really worried about flooding though. That said there is always the possibility this thing does hook a bit south. I have seen that countless times before.

Do not forget high load extension cords. The ones for the lawn are not meant for high loads if you want to run a window ac or a fridge. Lights, tv and a fan will be fine.

They pointed out 14 guage lines. Said they would be fine. I’ll be running a fridge, freezer, fans and lights/TV. Also going to be sandbagging. It looks like I can handle around 15 foot surge. Anything more and the sandbags have to do their job hopefully. I can hide out on the second level as long as there’s still a roof.[/quote

14 is okay if they are not oo long, but 12 is better for ac. Get one of these just in case and return it if you do not need it. Works really well to run a line from gen into the home and delivery is tomorrow!

https://www.amazon.com/Extension-Waterproof-Flexible-Cold-Resistant-HUANCHAIN/dp/B09WR4ZHRD/ref=asc_df_B09WR4ZHRD/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=703628499311&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=18332521797519710562&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1015067&hvtargid=pla-2198403582369&mcid=eed2bff072de355893456a552a70a84e&th=1

[Flwxguy86]

Tuesday night may be too late as TS conditions could begin then. I'm tentatively leaving at dawn (or just before) on Tuesday morning.

The way I figure it, I only really need to get inland maybe 20 or 30 minutes away and find a solid structure and hope I have a place to come back to, I could probably do that tuesday early in the evening as long the timeline doesn't drastically move faster.

If lots of other people think like you, you could end up in a huge traffic jam and 20-30 mins would take you 3-4 HOURS to traverse. And going farther and farther as the closer hotel rooms (I assume you're looking for a hotel room), will fill up fast once others make that decision to bug out.

Probably a poorly thought out plan but I am caught between paydays till literally the night before this would make landfall, So For now my plan is if I have to find somewhere I can park my car farther inland and ride it out there, I am hoping to not have to do that but with my current resources that may have to be the plan. I am still thinking about what to do though I think i still have the time to try to think things through.

[ConvergenceZone]

I honestly expected Milton to be stronger by now since it hit 40 mph so early in the day.

[Hurricane2022]

Now up to 40 kt

[Hurricane2022]

INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[sponger]

The way I figure it, I only really need to get inland maybe 20 or 30 minutes away and find a solid structure and hope I have a place to come back to, I could probably do that tuesday early in the evening as long the timeline doesn't drastically move faster.

If lots of other people think like you, you could end up in a huge traffic jam and 20-30 mins would take you 3-4 HOURS to traverse. And going farther and farther as the closer hotel rooms (I assume you're looking for a hotel room), will fill up fast once others make that decision to bug out.

Probably a poorly thought out plan but I am caught between paydays till literally the night before this would make landfall, So For now my plan is if I have to find somewhere I can park my car farther inland and ride it out there, I am hoping to not have to do that but with my current resources that may have to be the plan. I am still thinking about what to do though I think i still have the time to try to think things through.

You do what you can with the resources you have! I prefer late evac as it gives the most info. There is zero traffic usually six hours before landfall. It's the day before that is a zoo. Your car should be fine as long as you are out of the core and no where near a tree. She will be a big girl so be prepared for that!

[sponger]

I am just glad Helene was so dry for us here in Northeast Florida. The ground has had a chance to dry out for a few weeks, after 14 inches of rain.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

If lots of other people think like you, you could end up in a huge traffic jam and 20-30 mins would take you 3-4 HOURS to traverse. And going farther and farther as the closer hotel rooms (I assume you're looking for a hotel room), will fill up fast once others make that decision to bug out.

Probably a poorly thought out plan but I am caught between paydays till literally the night before this would make landfall, So For now my plan is if I have to find somewhere I can park my car farther inland and ride it out there, I am hoping to not have to do that but with my current resources that may have to be the plan. I am still thinking about what to do though I think i still have the time to try to think things through.

You do what you can with the resources you have! I prefer late evac as it gives the most info. There is zero traffic usually six hours before landfall. It's the day before that is a zoo. Your car should be fine as long as you are out of the core and no where near a tree. She will be a big girl so be prepared for that!

This strategy works until it doesn’t. One day a direct hit will mean other people are also fleeing at the last minute and you have an opportunity to meet your local Nationals Guardsmen.

[InfernoFlameCat]

While it does say 110 mph without saying inland, i would like to point out that the center of the hurricane is “inland” just in a bay so it likely will have already been “inland” for about two hours or so just with the center still over water. So likely still landfalling as a major hurricane.