ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kassi]

IR improving again with the center becoming identifiable again. Looks like a quick eyewall meld took place imo.

Looks like both a meld and replacement

What is a meld? Dual eyes forming into one larger one?

Scroll up a few posts. kevin explained it well.

[dukeblue219]

People need to find shelter somehow and not be in homes/mobile homes without basements.

There are no basements in that part of Florida.

[NDG]

I can certainly say, you in the Naples/Ft Myers area you are in the clear of a direct hit, Milton will have to head almost east now for you to have a repeat of Ian.
But still a high risk for some storm surge.

[Xyls]

People need to find shelter somehow and not be in homes/mobile homes without basements.

There are no basements in that part of Florida.

I know that... that's what I said shelter somehow. I don't know what kind of shelters are open but if these are big tornadoes you don't want to be above ground/lacking some sort of strong structure.

[drewschmaltz]

From Genesis to cat 5, it's been a little hard to keep up with Milton. The ink barely dried on posts that questioned sub 900 models by the time they were reached. This isn't a knock on anyone or any organization - it's just been the nature of Milton.

Not that it's correlated in any way (the idea of an identity or personality traits to a storm is mostly anthropomorphic), but it seems the trend continues. The time to evacuate is NOW (but there are tornados already on the ground). Tampa has been seeing progressively southern forecasts for 24 hours, but models (that have verified well the past 48 hours) still put the bay the landfall. Some models have Thursday morning, but Milton is ahead of that. And the desperately needed shear is fashionably late.

All that's to say, things have been moving quickly and they are continuing to move quickly. It's not Thursday am. It's right now. Make good decisions and be safe.

[ronjon]

Average heading during the past 4 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/7Iy69S8.jpeg

Looks pretty close to the 00z Euro track.

[underthwx]

TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 9
Location: 25.8°N 84.3°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 931 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[johngaltfla]

No worries NDG, we knew what you meant! Can you imagine? All heck would break loose here.

NDG has given so much to these boards lately. I'm very sure NDG must be totally exhausted from all the hard work that has been put into the research. Thank you, NDG, for keeping us up to date, especially in the Models thread!

Sorry, meant to type NNE.

ICON smells another win...

[jasons2k]

I can certainly say, you in the Naples/Ft Myers area you are in the clear of a direct hit, Milton will have to head almost east now for you to have a repeat of Ian.
But still a high risk for some storm surge.

This surge will be a lot bigger than Ian and places as far away as Naples still face a surge threat.

[GCANE]

is it still over the loop current?

No.
However it will hit a pool of 31C water offshore just before landfall

[tolakram]

[Xyls]

This thing may be like Beryl and fight the shear all the way to landfall. Which I am beginning to suspect is going to be right in Tampa Bay.

[Poonwalker]

Going to be extremely close to a Tampa Bay landfall. Could be as close as 5-10 miles that make a huge difference. An almost due north motion is happening currently, and this is the time when wobbles make huge differences. My hunch is still just barely south of Tampa, but I'd be sweating it out if I were a Tampa resident.

There is literally billions of dollars of damage at stake if this goes into st Pete. One quote in the past was hundreds of billions with a cat 5. That would crush the Florida economy and insurance companies.

[tolakram]

[Woofde]

Shear is starting to eat at it from the West now. There is some very dry air that should hopefully be forced into its circulation.

[Kazmit]

Average heading during the past 4 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/7Iy69S8.jpeg

Looks pretty close to the 00z Euro track.

0z Euro showed a due north heading between 15z and 18z (11am and 2pm EST).

[FLLurker32]

Unless it starts to get pushed more East ASAP, this track is not going to verify.

[GCANE]

Interacting with the trof now

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[GCANE]

A lot more tornadoes than Helene

 https://x.com/NWStornado/status/1844045680488403113

[wxman57]

I can certainly say, you in the Naples/Ft Myers area you are in the clear of a direct hit, Milton will have to head almost east now for you to have a repeat of Ian.
But still a high risk for some storm surge.

This surge will be a lot bigger than Ian and places as far away as Naples still face a surge threat.

Not necessarily a larger surge. Milton is much smaller than Ian and it will likely hit as an upper-end Cat 2, maybe a weakening Cat 3. Lots of dry air entrainment now, along with increasing shear. Milton is not the same hurricane it was yesterday.