ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xtyphooncyclonex]

the news keep getting better and better, thanks wxman! Maybe our prayers are being answered. Do you think a cat 1 is even possible at landfall due to this rapid weakening?

You seem to be selectively filtering information for only the positives and completely ignoring the negatives. If anyone in the path that isn’t diligently informed is reading this, they are going to get the wrong idea. The facts are:
- the storm has been expected to weaken on approach
- wind, while a notable threat, is not THE threat - surge is
- the storm is growing in size, which will increase the distribution of impacts, including wind and surge over a larger area

Nothing has really changed. People need to continue taking this as seriously as they have been. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Don’t tune it out because you want it to be less severe.

Nothing has changed? Nothing? clearly things are changing, and not all for the worse or even same.

If we're talking about developments, they have certainly been on the weakening side. Is it a good thing in terms of no longer being the cat 5 it was? Sure.

These have all been anticipated days in advance. Milton's simply following the forecast.

But are things looking "good" and "better" in general? No. I admire your optimism and as someone raised around Filipino resilience, it's best to expect the worst. Let's not have this attitude that things are going well and better than thought.

Assuming we get a cat 2 at landfall (it most likely may not be), it still will be devastating, and not a typical category 2. The NHC and other pro mets in this forum have repeatedly discussed how bad the surge could be. Because water is the ultimate killer. Milton was a category 5 for over 24 hours, and a major for even longer. It's still bringing with it the much-feared surge despite the weakening.

Will this be Katrina 2.0? We're not saying that. We don't want to be pessimistic --- or overly optimistic ---- but realistic.

This area hasn't seen a hurricane directly strike in like... decades. Much less a major hurricane --- because Milton still is. It will weaken further but that doesn't mean things will look good *at all* for the areas it strikes especially with its now larger size.

As imperfect as they are, the NHC have largely done a great job. And that's where I'd put my weight in. They say things are not going great --- emphasizing words such as "life-threatening" and using strong language in their discussions. Given their solid track record, that very very likely means they will be right.

[mpic]

I would not get too excited yet by weakening. Hurricane models suggest another burst before beginning to weaken right at landfall.

Like nails in a chalkboard when I hear..." but it's only going to be a Cat 3 at landfall so won't be too bad". Most of those friends have never been through a TS let alone a hurricane.

[tolakram]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

[Xyls]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

Ian?

[TomballEd]

Over 150 miles, N to S, of hurricane force winds on the E side of Milton by recon and NHC lat/long distance converter. Out 80 miles E from the center. That is building a surge

[Steve]

Bunch more supercells heading up.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

[xironman]

EF3's are decent TORs

The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging
hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic
tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few
strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible

[tolakram]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

Ian?

Not a major city though? I'm thinking wind and tall buildings, and if they've ever really been tested from a near hit, or miss.

[Beef Stew]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

If we're counting the EPac- Otis.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

If it's the US, would this be Ian over Lee County (Fort Myers and Cape Coral) or Ida fairly close to NOLA?

[longhorn2004]

Anybody who thinks that a weakening to even a category 2 (already no guarantee) is "good news" should remember that Ike was a category 2. True, this isn't as big as Ike, but it's hitting a very heavily-populated area that isn't used to major hurricanes and is especially susceptible to surge.

living in the path, yeah, I think it dropping in strength is great news

If anything happening today is surprising to you then you've missed all the important messages from the last 36 hours. The storm is behaving almost exactly as forecast.

Oh I read the messages. With family in the area, I cheer every bit of good news, such as Milton sucking dry air, Bon Appetit. 24 hours ago when the pressure was in the 890s and it was a Cat 5, no one was thinking of a possible Cat 2 landfall. True, the winds are not the problem, the surge is and the damage is set in stone.

[TomballEd]

Bunch of tornado warnings out there right now as expected. Some of the observed ones were way stronger than F0’s. Crazy but expected.

SPC has hatched tornado probs. Strong shear, some insolation, maybe some of the dry air working in from the S & W. Far from the actual max hurricane winds will be.

[vbhoutex]

this is from Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control

:Catastrophic hurricane impacts imminent for Florida.

Widespread damage and extended loss of basic services will result in prolonged human suffering…some areas will be uninhabitable for weeks to months.

Discussion:

Milton regained category 5 intensity yesterday afternoon with the completion of the eyewall replacement cycle…the surface pressure fell to 907mb and winds increased to 160mph. In the last few hours…both NOAA and USAF missions have found a double wind maximum in Milton indicating the hurricane is starting another eyewall replacement cycle…the surface pressure has increased to 916mb and the eye has filled and clouded over on IR images. Additionally, the cloud pattern is starting to look a bit east weighted indicating wind shear is imparting on the hurricane from the west. It is likely Milton has peaked and steady weakening that has been forecasted up to landfall in now in progress…a combination of a well timed eyewall replacement cycle and increasingly unfavorable upper level conditions. IR Satellite Loop for Hurricane MILTON | Tropical Tidbits



While Milton will weaken…the wind field is expanding and will continue to expand through landfall…even with weakening the catastrophic storm surge is already there with this hurricane and similar events (Katrina, Rita, Opal) all produced historic storm surge events even though the hurricane peaked over the open Gulf of Mexico well prior to landfall.

Track/Intensity:

The track forecast has shifted very little over the last 24 hours, but the exact track of the eye will make a large difference in where the maximum storm surge occurs. A track just north or into Tampa Bay will result in a catastrophic storm surge into metro Tampa with damage numbers that would likely rival hurricane Katrina. A track just south of Tampa Bay would spare the metro area the maximum surge and focus the surge further down the coast toward Sarasota and Fort Myers. Generally , Milton has been tracking just southeast of both the NHC forecast points and the multi-model consensus and this may support a landfall just south of Tampa Bay near Sarasota. However, the northern eyewall of strong winds would still move across the metro Tampa area.

Minton will weaken some on approach to landfall…how much exactly remains to be seen…but the current forecast calls for a 130mph category 4 landfall. The landfall intensity is not overly important since the storm surge is already baked into the fabric of this hurricane. The expanding wind field and accelerating forward speed will bring hurricane conditions across FL into the Orlando area and then exit off the FL east coast around Cape Canaveral.

Impacts:

Storm Surge:
A large area of the west coast of FL will experience a storm surge event that has not happened in most of these locations in over 100 years. Values of 8-15 ft are likely near and south of where the center crosses the coast (Sarasota, Siesta Key, Venice, Englewood, Port Charlotte, Fort Myers) and possibly into Tampa Bay and the metro Tampa area should the track be just slightly northward. The barrier islands will be completely overtopped with likely heavy erosion forming several cuts through the terrain…structures will be collapsed and washed away…little will survive along the immediate coast. Even well built multi-story structures may become undermined to the point of total failure. Coastal critical services and infrastructure will be destroyed (roads, bridges, power, communication, water, and sewer). These areas will be uninhabitable for weeks to months.

Wind:

A large area of damaging hurricane conditions will move across the state of FL impacting large population areas. It is likely the northern eyewall will contain the strongest winds as it interacts with a trough to the north while dry air undercuts the southern side of the hurricane eroding into the southern eyewall. Model guidance has been showing this for the last few days which brings the strongest winds along and north of the center track. Widespread wind damage is likely across the entire state of FL with both Tampa and Orlando likely experienced significant wind impacts with widespread power loss for an extended period of time.

Rainfall:

Rainfall amounts of 8-16 inches will be likely along and north of the track of the center…similar to the wind…the northern eyewall is likely to be enhanced by the interaction with a trough to the north which will focus excessive rainfall in the northern eyewall while dry air erodes the southern side of the hurricane. Given the saturated conditions already in place from Helene and wet conditions since…these rainfall amounts will produce significant inland freshwater flooding. Much of the rain is going to fall in a 6-10 hour window as Milton crosses the state.

Graphics are missing

[Frank P]

latest radar loop

[longhorn2004]

Bunch more supercells heading up.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

Layman's question. Should not the sheer be effecting the Cumulous tops too?

[bjackrian]

the 1600Z and 1700Z update positions from NHC show due north movement over the last hour along 84.2W.

[StormPyrate]

You seem to be selectively filtering information for only the positives and completely ignoring the negatives. If anyone in the path that isn’t diligently informed is reading this, they are going to get the wrong idea. The facts are:
- the storm has been expected to weaken on approach
- wind, while a notable threat, is not THE threat - surge is
- the storm is growing in size, which will increase the distribution of impacts, including wind and surge over a larger area

Nothing has really changed. People need to continue taking this as seriously as they have been. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Don’t tune it out because you want it to be less severe.

Nothing has changed? Nothing? clearly things are changing, and not all for the worse or even same.

If we're talking about developments, they have certainly been on the weakening side. Is it a good thing in terms of no longer being the cat 5 it was? Sure.

These have all been anticipated days in advance. Milton's simply following the forecast.

But are things looking "good" and "better" in general? No. I admire your optimism and as someone raised around Filipino resilience, it's best to expect the worst. Let's not have this attitude that things are going well and better than thought.

Assuming we get a cat 2 at landfall (it most likely may not be), it still will be devastating, and not a typical category 2. The NHC and other pro mets in this forum have repeatedly discussed how bad the surge could be. Because water is the ultimate killer. Milton was a category 5 for over 24 hours, and a major for even longer. It's still bringing with it the much-feared surge despite the weakening.

Will this be Katrina 2.0? We're not saying that. We don't want to be pessimistic --- or overly optimistic ---- but realistic.

This area hasn't seen a hurricane directly strike in like... decades. Much less a major hurricane --- because Milton still is. It will weaken further but that doesn't mean things will look good *at all* for the areas it strikes especially with its now larger size.

Katrins Survivor
Now in the Path of Milton.
Not a pro, but an observer. Yes I know this is still a dangerous storm, Yes I know its important to keep people from getting compacent.
But as I look for my own truth with a house in the path, good news comes in many forms, some very small and I will take every small good news I can get.

[Xyls]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

Ian?

Not a major city though? I'm thinking wind and tall buildings, and if they've ever really been tested from a near hit, or miss.

In the Atlantic, Ike did a lot of damage in downtown Houston but again wasn't a direct hit. Wilma would've done a bunch of damage in the Miami area in 2005, Alicia in 1983 did hit Houston right on I believe. Looking outside of the US, Hurricane Juan's eyewall did smack Halifax in 2003. If you are looking at the EPAC though Otis just trashed Acapulco last year.

[Beef Stew]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

Ian?

Not a major city though? I'm thinking wind and tall buildings, and if they've ever really been tested from a near hit, or miss.

Some of the damage to Acapulco was astounding, including high-rise and resort buildings. I can't really think of any other storm in recent memory that parallels it a major metro area go.

[Ubuntwo]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

Ian?

Not a major city though? I'm thinking wind and tall buildings, and if they've ever really been tested from a near hit, or miss.

Hurricane Otis in Acapulco last year. City of a million people taking a direct category 5 hit.