ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

EF3's are decent TORs

The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging
hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic
tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few
strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible

Exactly. This is different than usual because of the intensity of some of these tornadoes. Gonna be rough out front of the system.

[TomballEd]

EF3's are decent TORs

The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging
hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic
tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few
strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible

SPC sig tor is anything EF-2 or above. A lot of Florida away from the coast is very rural, although some of these storms aren't very far inland. I saw power flashes from a traffic cam on X half an hour ago, not all the tornadoes are missing population centers.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the line of tornadoes near the lake knocked some power out. 1,037 homes without power now in Okeechobee. 23,000 out statewide now.

[Stormgodess]

Hurricane Rita hit as weakening Cat 3 (arguably a Cat 2) after its peak at a similar intensity as Milton... Cameron Parish saw 18 ft of storm surge. I'm just saying.

Not just the surge though. With the mountains of debris from Helene, the damage from any wind would be increased

[SecondBreakfast]

Ian?

Not a major city though? I'm thinking wind and tall buildings, and if they've ever really been tested from a near hit, or miss.

Some of the damage to Acapulco was astounding, including high-rise and resort buildings. I can't really think of any other storm in recent memory that parallels it a major metro area go.

Yes this, some of the high rise apartments were ripped to shreds. https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2023/10/photos-acapulco-aftermath-hurricane-otis/675835/

[eastcoastFL]

Lee County of Florida

16,040 without power now.

[Steve]

EF3's are decent TORs

The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging
hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic
tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few
strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible

SPC sig tor is anything EF-2 or above. A lot of Florida away from the coast is very rural, although some of these storms aren't very far inland. I saw power flashes from a traffic cam on X half an hour ago, not all the tornadoes are missing population centers.

Met Andy Hill said it was the first such advisory since 2005 with a hurricane. Pretty sure he said sig tor.

[xironman]

Bunch more supercells heading up.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

Layman's question. Should not the sheer be effecting the Cumulous tops too?

Shear is a positive for severe weather, exact opposite of tropical weather. The storms need to be ventilated or they will pulse down and not become supercells.

[Poonwalker]

longer saved loops
https://i.imgur.com/zsECdHn.gif

https://i.imgur.com/pEitP6W.gif

Amazing to just watch it bowl through the interference and come back into shape.. never be cat 5 again but man what a strong storm. good luck Florida. here's hoping as much weakening as possible for y'all.

Warm and deep water

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If we're talking last time a storm hit a major city in general:

Yagi just devastated Haikou (6 million people), and the metro areas of Hanoi and Haiphong at roughly the same strength Milton is now.

Acapulco was ravaged by Category 5 hurricane Otis --- which became the costliest EPac storm ever.

In the Atlantic, it could be Ida (was a major dangerously close to Baton Rouge and NOLA) or Irma (caused a storm surge in Brickell and hurricane-force winds in Miami). Beryl also passed dangerously close to Kingston, Jamaica (1.1 million metro).

[bythetrack]

Bunch more supercells heading up.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

Just went through a couple in Sebring,we still have power . All good

[kevin]

Recon getting ready for another center pass. Milton weakened about 5 mb in between the previous two passes so this will be a good test to see if this trend is continuing.

[Steve]

Bunch more supercells heading up.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

Layman's question. Should not the sheer be effecting the Cumulous tops too?

These are out front of Milton’s center in some of the outer bands coming in S-N so on the other side of the system from the trough). I didn’t look at the surface pattern but flow must be out of the se or SSE to spin up storms coming in roughly from the SSW.

[underthwx]

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
1:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9
Location: 26.2°N 84.2°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[got ants?]

When was the last hurricane strike on or very near a city?

If it's the US, would this be Ian over Lee County (Fort Myers and Cape Coral) or Ida fairly close to NOLA?

I've been shot down numerous times for mentioning the possibility of this effect. Locally in South Florida, I've been calling it our concrete wall. Hurricane Andrew was supposed to hit Hollywood/Fort Lauderdale, then changed directions and beeline under "the wall". Our high rises start just south of Miami River, into downtown, and then run up the coast. We have not (in Hllwd/FtLaud) seen a direct hit in almost 100 years

[Steve]

Bunch more supercells heading up.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

Just went through a couple in Sebring,we still have power . All good

Stay safe track. Lots more gonna come up then into points farther north.

[Mike33534]

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
1:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9
Location: 26.2°N 84.2°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

this was the projected 2pm location

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)

[psyclone]

Winds are on the increase here. Bay bridges are shutting down

[kevin]

Milton is getting noticeably larger even on the 30-second time step floater. Some new pink clouds near the center.

[Poonwalker]

11am had Milton at 25.8N, 84.3W. Recon now found the center at 25.98N, 84.28W which means that Milton's average heading has been almost due north due last 2 hours.

It’s still exactly where the Hafs models predicted in the last two runs.