ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Bunch more supercells heading up.

https://radar.weather.gov/station/KAMX/standard

Layman's question. Should not the sheer be effecting the Cumulous tops too?

These are out front of Milton’s center in some of the outer bands coming in S-N so on the other side of the system from the trough). I didn’t look at the surface pattern but flow must be out of the se or SSE to spin up storms coming in roughly from the SSW.

Pivotal gives very good information for severe risk at a given spot and time, you have to love a good hodograph

[Hurricane Mike]

1:00 PM Video on Milton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VangxI-iuQ

[Abdullah]

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
1:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9
Location: 26.2°N 84.2°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

this was the projected 2pm location

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)

It moved to the North as expected, but has seen almost zero movement West.

[TomballEd]

Sustained gale force (TS force) winds and storm force gusts onshore St. Petersburg with Milton 9 or 10 hours from landfall. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSPG.html

[eastcoastFL]

Thunder is loudly rumbling now here in Stuart. I can see some very dark clouds look west towards the lake.

[TomballEd]

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
1:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9
Location: 26.2°N 84.2°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 935 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

this was the projected 2pm location

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)

It moved to the North as expected, but has seen almost zero movement West.

What is the link to the radar superimposed on the NHC track? or could someone just post it every so often?

[eastcoastFL]

Publix is closed so you know it’s about to get real.

[Travorum]

this was the projected 2pm location

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)

It moved to the North as expected, but has seen almost zero movement West.

What is the link to the radar superimposed on the NHC track? or could someone just post it every so often?

Here you go:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[eastcoastFL]

this was the projected 2pm location

02:00 PM — 26.2N, 83.9W (+0.4N, -0.4W)

It moved to the North as expected, but has seen almost zero movement West.

What is the link to the radar superimposed on the NHC track? or could someone just post it every so often?

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[TomballEd]

Eyeballing NHC radar loop, there is still substantial E-ward motion. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KTBW/standard

[KC7NEC]

Publix is closed so you know it’s about to get real.

The real metric is the Waffle House

[Exalt]

Could we see this thing have one more oomph to it with the warm waters closer to? Low cat 4 rather than cat 2 or 3?

[Hugo1989]

Publix is closed so you know it’s about to get real.

The real metric is the Waffle House

WAWA is the real deal!

[Travorum]

Publix is closed so you know it’s about to get real.

The real metric is the Waffle House

The current Waffle House Index:
 https://x.com/WaffleHouse/status/1844033324483764556

[Poonwalker]

I would not get too excited yet by weakening. Hurricane models suggest another burst before beginning to weaken right at landfall.

I would not even focus too much on the measured wind speeds for this one on approach. This storm still has a massive amount of water it was pushing. With the frontal baroclinic changes going on we will see high surface winds across a greater distance. The real danger here still lies in the surge.

[StormPyrate]

Wow hope no one is craving Waffle house, they closed everthing on the gulf coast it looks like.
even stuff no longer in the cone

[bob rulz]

Anybody who thinks that a weakening to even a category 2 (already no guarantee) is "good news" should remember that Ike was a category 2. True, this isn't as big as Ike, but it's hitting a very heavily-populated area that isn't used to major hurricanes and is especially susceptible to surge.

living in the path, yeah, I think it dropping in strength is great news

Dropping in strength is better than not dropping in strength. But that doesn't mean the damage won't still be catastrophic.

Ike was "only" a category 2. Katrina was "only" a cat 3 at landfall. Sandy was "only" a cat 1.

Many of our most destructive hurricanes are ones that were "weakening" but had time to expand in size and build up surge, exactly what Milton is doing right now.

[longhorn2004]

Picking up in Tampa. The Port Tampa cam.

https://www.porttampawebcam.com/

[norva13x]

Around what time will landfall be?

[TomballEd]

While well of the Cat 5 peak earlier this morning, Milton is still 938 mb extrap. and the rate of weakening has slowed.