ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Xyls]

Storm chasers reporting a possible wedge tornado near Yeehaw Junction per Ryan Hall's stream.

[jhpigott]

Getting tropical storm force gusts. PBI reporting 25mph, gusting to 39

[Hurrilurker]

They keep talking on the weather channel about landfall very late tonight, but looking at radar, it sure looks like it's going to come in sooner then that.

I know, I finally got time to check on it and I was like "Whoa, it's already RIGHT THERE! How did that happen?"

[Beef Stew]

One of the biggest stories to come from Milton may end up being the tornado outbreak it's spawning... these are very powerful tornados... especially by Florida standards...

[Stormlover70]

76 tornado warnings so far. God help us. We need prayers.....

[TampaWxLurker]

Heading 35° at the 3pm update vs 30° at 2pm. Still 16mph movement. Pressure up to 948mb vs 944mb.

[Seele]

They keep talking on the weather channel about landfall very late tonight, but looking at radar, it sure looks like it's going to come in sooner then that.

It's supposed to slow down some as it interacts with a trough which should direct it more ENE.

[Nimbus]

I didn't realize it had already dropped to 130 mph. Since a cat 2 is only 20 mph lower, I think it should be able to easily get down to that by landfall. Cat 2 is probably as low as it can go though. Obviously still dangerous, but we also have to look for anything encouraging when it comes to these storms.

I don't know how much any of that is going to matter with the amount of tornadoes we’re seeing. The surge will still be immense too. This is one awful storm.

For the Tampa bay surge and surface winds I'm monitoring this buoy that is still operational.
Shouldn't get as much surge in Tampa bay with the winds coming out of the east less than 90 degrees.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=mtbf1

[NDG]

Heading between the last 2 Recon fixes shows a heading of 39 deg, took a jog more NNE than true NE.
But it looks like it picked up speed again, back to 18-20 mph. Not good!

[TampaWxLurker]

They keep talking on the weather channel about landfall very late tonight, but looking at radar, it sure looks like it's going to come in sooner then that.

It's supposed to slow down some as it interacts with a trough which should direct it more ENE.

A change in direction like that is usually preceded by a slowdown in forward speed, also.

[mpic]

Friends in Ft. Myers. Anybody know off-hand which chaser will be there?

[Woofde]

This storm is going to come in as a very dangerous mess. It's definitely still weakening which is good, but I doubt it helps much with the surge, we shall see. The downside of the big Jet interaction is the tornadoes unfortunately.

[ronjon]

Heading 35° at the 3pm update vs 30° at 2pm. Still 16mph movement. Pressure up to 948mb vs 944mb.

NHC in their 2 pm update said they expect Milton to slow down as it approaches the coast.

[kevin]

FL winds up to 114 kt, translates to 100 - 105 kt at the surface. I expect NHC will go with 105 - 110 kt so the public doesn't let their guard down. Same FL measurements (around 115 kt) as two hours ago though so winds don't seem to be coming down much anymore.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Prayers for Florida. Here for you guys.

[skillz305]

Guys…I’m in Vero. This little band is coming in with LOTS of Thunder. Could have sworn I heard as if it were an airplane coming but cannot verify anything about any tornado activity. It is almost scarier than the hurricane itself with this tornado outbreak then getting a tornado warning then hearing really loud distant thunder because I am safe at this moment - no evidence of a tornado.

[Sciencerocks]

114 knt flight level/87 knt smrf in northeast quad.

114 knt = 102.5 knts

I'd go probably 95 knts considering that it isn't mixing down.

[TomballEd]

It is going to need more than just a small left jog to get to Tampa Bay, which is good for them. But it looks too close for comfort. A center just missing would still have hours of generally Sly flow which will push water into Tampa Bay, if I had to guess, before the offshore flow as the system passes pushes the surge back out.

I suspect enough surge the Helene debris will be awash.

[NDG]

18z TVCN is now north of Sarasota, never late than never.

[TomballEd]

114 knt flight level/87 knt smrf in northeast quad.

114 knt = 102.5 knts

I'd go probably 95 knts considering that it isn't mixing down.

radar shows there is still convection NE of the center, that probably is mixing down. I have been buying the HAFS strong Cat 2 idea for a while based on how well they predicted the RI Sunday and Monday.