ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TomballEd]

114 knt flight level/87 knt smrf in northeast quad.

114 knt = 102.5 knts

I'd go probably 95 knts considering that it isn't mixing down.

radar shows there is still convection NE of the center, that probably is mixing down. I have been buying the HAFS strong Cat 2 idea for a while based on how well they predicted the RI Sunday and Monday.

[kevin]

Recon found the center at 26.5N, 83.8W. The last center pass was at 26.2N, 84.0W. So still a slight north of NE movement.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

To my amateur eye, Milton is north of its forecast points and is aiming more towards Anna Maria Island, potentially as far north as Fort De Soto. That will have surge implications for Tampa Bay.

It could wobble back to the south. Let's hope so, for Tampa's sake.

[Pas_Bon]

That radar loop looks like it's grinding right toward Sarasota. Getting wet and wild here. It's plenty for me but I don't get a say. I'm just along for the ride

Stay safe....check in with us when you can. Godspeed.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm guessing this comes in around 115 mph. Water still the biggest threat, although these twisters are causing a lot of damage. 

[Teban54]

The eyewall, especially the eastern half, seems to be getting stronger and better defined on recent frames. I'm afraid the weakening may not last much longer.

[TR772]

My power just went out in Palm Beach County. Very windy good luck everyone.

[ROCK]

I'm guessing this comes in around 115 mph. Water still the biggest threat, although these twisters are causing a lot of damage. 

yes they are..an outbreak I have never seen before for FL as far as EF2-3s. Like what 60-70 warnings so far..30+ on the ground?..geezz. I am all about EF0s that spin up in a band here and there but EF2-3...got to be kidding me...The whole state is being ripped apart.

[mpic]

My power just went out in Palm Beach County. Very windy good luck everyone.

Be safe!

[wxman57]

Milton appears to have weakened to a Cat 2, based on recon. Maybe 95 kts. NHC will keep it a 3 to make sure no one returns to the beaches. Even though the sustained surface wind has dropped, it still has strong winds aloft that can dip down to the surface at times, producing 110-120 mph, maybe higher. It's a little larger than it was, but not a large hurricane by any means.

[ColdFusion]

I'm guessing this comes in around 115 mph. Water still the biggest threat, although these twisters are causing a lot of damage. 

yes they are..an outbreak I have never seen before for FL as far as EF2-3s. Like what 60-70 warnings so far..30+ on the ground?..geezz. I am all about EF0s that spin up in a band here and there but EF2-3...got to be kidding me...The whole state is being ripped apart.

Geez that sounds terrible, where can I find out more about all this damage?

[AJC3]

Guys…I’m in Vero. This little band is coming in with LOTS of Thunder. Could have sworn I heard as if it were an airplane coming but cannot verify anything about any tornado activity. It is almost scarier than the hurricane itself with this tornado outbreak then getting a tornado warning then hearing really loud distant thunder because I am safe at this moment - no evidence of a tornado.

Same up here in West Melbourne. That tornadic cell passed well SW of us, but still produced a decent amount of thunder/lightning here.

Still feels strange for me not to be working this event. I'll take it though.

[wx98]

Raw T# is down to 5.1, indicating a low-end Cat 3 or Cat 2. This definitely is no longer a Cat 4, and the NHC should reduce it next advisory.

[dukeblue219]

Whatever complaints folks have about Milton being unpredictable in intensity, the NHC killed it with advisory #1 four days ago. When I was first tracking storms as a kid in the 90s this accuracy was unfathomable.

[NDG]

Latest zoomed in radar loop. If Milton doesn't slow down soon the Global models especially ICON and latest Euro are going to be correct of landfall north of Sarasota close to Tampa Bay if not on Tampa Bay.

[Frank P]

Residents along the west coast pucker pressure has to be over 10+ right now, especially those in the Tampa Bay area. Every little wobble to the east might be TB best hope.

[mpic]

https://i.postimg.cc/dtqy19ct/download.png

Whatever complaints folks have about Milton being unpredictable in intensity, the NHC killed it with advisory #1 four days ago. When I was first tracking storms as a kid in the 90s this accuracy was unfathomable.

Even as recently as 2008 with Ike. My boss made fun of me asking for a vacay to evac about 5 days before because they were saying it would go into Mexico.

[ConvergenceZone]

Milton appears to have weakened to a Cat 2, based on recon. Maybe 95 kts. NHC will keep it a 3 to make sure no one returns to the beaches. Even though the sustained surface wind has dropped, it still has strong winds aloft that can dip down to the surface at times, producing 110-120 mph, maybe higher. It's a little larger than it was, but not a large hurricane by any means.

You called Cat 2 earlier before anyone else was calling for it, so great job, looks like you nailed it. Now let's work on getting it down to a Cat 1

[Steve]

Latest zoomed in radar loop. If Milton doesn't slow down soon the Global models especially ICON and latest Euro are going to be correct of landfall north of Sarasota close to Tampa Bay if not on Tampa Bay.

https://i.imgur.com/fKxtt9K.gif

Super cells in that band moving on the coast. Gotta be a ton more warnings.

[loon]

impressive blowup and convection blast to the north last few frames...