ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

That convection over center has really popped in the last hour. Viewing various satellite perspectives, I'm of the impression that recon is going to find winds nearly nearly approaching hurricane force. I have no doubt that West coast city businesses will make the intelligent decision in terms of closing when appropriate Hurricane Watches/Warnings occur. I'm not so sure about many businesses here in the Orlando area that will consider hanging open until the last moment so to maximize revenues. That attitude does nothing but put employees in jeopardy.

[Jonny]

Is there any chance it will weaken before landfall?

Yes- all or most of the hurricane models are showing marked decrease in intensity prior to landfall. We’ll see if that holds up.

If "he" does reach 4/5 status, I wouldn't take any chances regardless.

Better to be safe than sorry./Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

[chaser1]

Is there any chance it will weaken before landfall?

Yes- all or most of the hurricane models are showing marked decrease in intensity prior to landfall. We’ll see if that holds up.

If "he" does reach 4/5 status, I wouldn't take any chances regardless.

Better to be safe than sorry./Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

One other impacting how fast winds might decrease has everything to do with its forward speed. We all know that land friction typically results in fairly quick weakening. However, a fast-moving hurricane that has strong winds, will be apt to weaken less even as surface pressures rise. Often times we see recon or surface observations showing decent pressure falls, yet the wind speeds often take a little time to catch up. The same tends to occur with weakening (in terms of strong wind gusts throughout various storm bands). The other thing with weakening is that often times the weakening process might go hand in hand with a broadening of the pressure gradient thus expanding the wind field (albeit weaker wind field).

[wx98]

NOAA plane is in the air…

[GCANE]

Lots of lightning now on the hot tower.
He's intensifying.

[wx98]

Recent blowup over the center with -90 cloudtops.

[wx98]

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...

4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6
Location: 23.0°N 94.9°W
Moving: E at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[wx98]

Track is still right over Pinellas. Landfall Wednesday afternoon. Good NHC discussion, which mentions the forecast of 120 mph is probably conservative and below the intensity consensus. Mentions the differences in modeling showing Cat 1 to Cat 5 intensity and that some rapidly weaken before landfall while others don’t.

Again mentions that the track cone is based on historical error for a forecast point. It will not “get bigger or smaller”. Some here are still not understanding that part.

[GCANE]

Some ionospheric heating is underway over Europe, West Asia, and Africa due to low-energy protons and electrons.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm
https://solarham.com/protons.htm


Should be over GoM starting in about 8 hrs.
May coincide with the main CME impact then.

[jlauderdal]

Some ionospheric heating is underway over Europe, West Asia, and Africa due to low-energy protons and electrons.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm
https://solarham.com/protons.htm


Should be over GoM starting in about 8 hrs.
May coincide with the main CME impact then.

Arrives in time for the weak low out ahead of Milton that will be setting up this afternoon into tomorrow, providing lift and ultimately convergence on the SE coast, which the WPC has highlighted in its DAY 1 outlook with moderate a chance which in real terms is high. Usual spots in SE Florida on alert, Hollywood, Dania Beach, and the airport, downtown Miami-Biscayne blvd. No idea where its going to setup but it has a potential to be very widespread over the next 36 hours with up to 2.6 pwats. This would be a predecessor event and considering we have had some scattered big totals since Friday, its trouble.

[kassi]

For the benefit of people who might be heading up to Georgia, what's the status? Are there still power outages? My aunt's in Augusta, and from what I've heard, some areas still don't have power.

Code: Select all

North Carolina   159,587
Georgia   121,741
South Carolina   118,017
Michigan   7,720
California   7,132
Last Updated: 2024-10-06 04:27:36 AM CDT

Source: poweroutage.us

[Michele B]

I managed to get a generator. They were flying off the shelf after a truck dropped them off at Home Depot. If we get a cat 3 direct hit I imagine there won’t be power here for weeks. Iam in zone C which has me really worried about flooding though. That said there is always the possibility this thing does hook a bit south. I have seen that countless times before.

You probably already know this, but be sure to go ahead and do your generator break-in before the storm hits.

Another tidbit...not sure what type of a/c you have, but a central can over whelm a generator. I have a brand new window shaker, only 500 it's, in my garage, for like 10 years. That and plywood, so I can open my bedroom window, and install. I've had a back up going on 30 years, not had to use it, but loaned it to friends, on condition they buy me a new one. It's a small price to pay and they were more than grateful.

The reason this storm is riding so far south and probably without a serious northern turn is the cold front that will influence it. Like Ian, I expect there to be pleasant temps once he sweeps through.

[xironman]

NOAA has descended into the storm

[Michele B]

Recent blowup over the center with -90 cloudtops.

Showing off for the HH!

[NDG]

Glad to read on the latest NHC Discussion Forecast that their track lies between the GFS and Euro tracks, not so much off of the TVCN.
Best way to go, IMO.

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1842884234291097733

[kevin]

Ehmmm you guys, recon just found 985.6 mb

[Keldeo1997]

I think we are in big trouble

[xironman]

Ehmmm you guys, recon just found 985.6 mb

Its going to take a while for the winds to catch up to the pressure. 'Cane by 11?

[kevin]

Time to throw all the recent models out the window. Milton's real time situation is so radically different from the model initialization that they're practically worthless. 12z should hopefully be much more accurate.