ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Remember when people were celebrating that Milton had weakened to a Cat 2 (without official confirmation at all) and hoping for a Cat 1 at landfall?

...they were right?

They were not right, and it was irresponsible IMO. No shot this becomes a cat 1 by landfall and a 2 is unlikely either. This will likely remain a major through landfall.

[Cat5James]

Just lost power in Manatee County. These winds are intense.

[ElectricStorm]

Based on this pass I'd go 100-105kts/954mb. So it seems either the last pass on the previous recon mission missed the peak winds, or perhaps its rebounded a bit since then. Either way doesn't really matter, impacts would be the same

[aspen]

A major hurricane landfall is still a major hurricane landfall, but at least Milton has been weakening at a good pace. There was a bit of concern this morning when it was still a Cat 5 and going south of forecasts, but fortunately shear finally kicked in. Still gonna be ugly.

[Sanibel]

Sarasota by a neck at the wire...

[ronjon]

Lost power in Hernando County at 7. Gusts are into the 60s. Had 3.6 inches of rain up to that point.

[TampaWxLurker]

8pm update, moving even more east than at the last advisory, at 60°.

Eyeballing it on Tampa radar, that sucker looks like its about to come onshore somewhere in Sarasota County.

[eastcoastFL]

Tornados and rain have ended here in Stuart, now the wind is picking up.

[Abdullah]

Milton position tracking and interpolation

Recorded positions:

02:00 AM — 23.8N, 86.0W
05:00 AM — 24.5N, 85.4W (+0.7N, -0.6W) (17 mph)
08:00 AM — 25.0N, 84.8W (+0.5N, -0.6W) (15 mph)
11:00 AM — 25.8N, 84.3W (+0.8N, -0.5W) (18 mph)
02:00 PM — 26.3N, 84.0W (+0.5N, -0.3W) (11 mph)
05:00 PM — 26.9N, 83.4W (+0.6N, -0.6W) (16 mph)

Projected position forecasted at the 11 AM advisory (including interpolations, marked in grey)

08:00 PM — 27.3N, 82.9W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)
11:00 PM — 27.7N, 82.4W (+0.4N, -0.5W) (12 mph)
02:00 AM — 28.0N, 81.8W (+0.3N, -0.6W) (12 mph)

The projection is for Milton to slow down moderately and start angling to the West over the next few hours, and at 9:20 PM tonight it will landfall at 27.5N, 84.7W, at Bradenton Beach. This location is 37 miles to the south-southwest of Tampa and 13 miles to the northwest of Sarasota.

The track forecast has been shifted north by 20 to 30 miles, reminiscent of the 20 to 30 miles to the northwest Milton tracked ahead of its forecast.

Actual position as of 8 PM advisory

27.2N, 82.8W

It is -0.1 degrees south and +0.1 degrees east of where it was projected to be, missing the forecast position by 8 miles.

These 8 miles were important for Tampa Bay to not receive as much storm surge as it otherwise may have.

[Category5Kaiju]

Remember when people were celebrating that Milton had weakened to a Cat 2 (without official confirmation at all) and hoping for a Cat 1 at landfall?

...they were right?

They were not right, and it was irresponsible IMO. No shot this becomes a cat 1 by landfall and a 2 is unlikely either. This will likely remain a major through landfall.

Yeah, I honestly didn't really buy the idea that Milton would weaken all the way under a major hurricane before making landfall. I think it's important to remember that ultra-powerful storms that also remain at such strengths for decent periods of time don't really weaken as rapidly as other storms would.

[StormPyrate]

Anyome know what the eye wall size is right now?

[TampaWxLurker]

Paul Delagatto on Fox In Tampa calls for landfall to prob happen soon in the Osprey area, southern Sarasota County.

[Travorum]

Anyome know what the eye wall size is right now?

According to AF recon, 48nm diameter

F. OPEN S
G. C48
DETEORIATING & RAGGED EYEWALL, 50% NRN SIDE, MODERATE TURBULENCE NRN QUAD.

[jasons2k]

Paul Delagatto on Fox In Tampa calls for landfall to prob happen soon in the Osprey area, southern Sarasota County.

He plotted the ‘center’ a little too far south. The center is in northern part of the larger ‘hole’ on the radar beam coming from Kennedy Blvd. Looks closer to a Lido or Longboat Key location when the NHC finally prints it, then right over Sarasota Bay.

[Abdullah]

Paul Delagatto on Fox In Tampa calls for landfall to prob happen soon in the Osprey area, southern Sarasota County.

Honestly best case scenario for the region

It'll travel through the least populated part of the coast.

[wx98]

Moving onshore now. Should get an official landfall declaration with 30-40 minutes.

[underthwx]

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
325 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

1. Hurricane Milton continues moving northeast into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon as a potentially catastrophic and
devastating category 4 hurricane. The current forecast track
brings it ashore tonight along the stretch of coastline between
Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, continuing northeast across the
state through Thursday morning before exiting into the Atlantic
during the afternoon. Milton has the potential to be one of the
most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.

2. Extremely life-threatening storm surge along the west Florida
coast is expected, with storm surge inundation of up to 9 to 13
feet above normally dry ground. Highest surge values will be
sensitive to Milton`s ultimate track and where it crosses the
coast, and will occur along and to the right of Milton`s track. It
should be noted that locations to the left of Milton`s track will
experience strong offshore flow which will likely result in
blowout tide or negative surge conditions, where water is notably
lower than normal. The bottom line is that anyone located within
an evacuation zone under evacuation orders or who has been ordered
to evacuate otherwise should follow the guidance of local
authorities and leave if told to do so. It`s a decision that could
save your life.

3. Destructive and life-threatening winds are expected along the
coast as well as areas further inland, as interaction between
Milton and a jet streak and a frontal boundary to the north will
lead to a rather large expansion of the storm`s overall wind
field. In particular, hurricane force winds to the north of the
center are likely to expand, exposing areas along and north of the
track that may not experience the catastrophic storm surge threat
to destructive winds with gusts well in excess of 100 mph
possible in some locations.

4. Milton will bring heavy rainfall to the entire area as it moves
across the state, with rainfall totaling 6 to 12 inches likely
with isolated totals up to 18 inches possible. This will present a
significant flash flood threat through Thursday which has
resulted in WPC issuing a High Risk for today and tonight,
indicating the potential for widespread flash flooding posing a
significant life-threatening conditions. Greatest threat is
expected along and to the north of Milton track under where the
heaviest rainfall axis is expected, generally along the I-4
corridor and northward into parts of the Nature Coast.
Additionally, ensuing river and stream flooding is likely to
result in area rivers reaching Moderate and Major to potentially
historic flood stages over the coming days as rainfall drains
through area basins.

5. An increasing tornado threat will accompany Milton`s approach
this afternoon and evening as outer bands overspread southern and
central locations. A tornado watch for everyone expect Levy and
Citrus County. We have already see multiple destructive tornadoes
across our southern CWA.


6. Time for preparation is over. It cannot be stressed enough to
please follow the guidance of local authorities and evacuate if
told to do so, as it may ultimately prove to be life- saving.

[tallywx]

Paul Delagatto on Fox In Tampa calls for landfall to prob happen soon in the Osprey area, southern Sarasota County.

He plotted the ‘center’ a little too far south. The center is in northern part of the larger ‘hole’ on the radar beam coming from Kennedy Blvd. Looks closer to a Lido or Longboat Key location when the NHC finally prints it, then right over Sarasota Bay.

This appears to be the pivot point / center of circulation.

[JaxGator]

Robert Ray from Fox Weather is live in Bradenton where a tree hit his press vehicles. While Milton breaks the streak of hurricanes rapidly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico upon landfall (Milton had his RI episode thankfully beforehand), by NO MEANS, does it downplay Milton’s onslaught on the Tampa and Sarasota area. First landfall/eyewall since 1921. And that tornado outbreak was crazy. I lost track on how many tornado warnings there were. Stay safe to whoever is under the gun. Milton means business.

[TampaWxLurker]

Getting some pretty big gusts here in eastern Hillsborough now. Lights starting to flicker.