ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rigbyrigz]

[/quote]

Oh! I thought you were near (south of) Big Bend area.[/quote]

That's where I am (south of Perry) the County (Taylor) already said mandatory evacuation tomorrow and no shelters will be open due to severity of storm. Sigh. Makes 3 in less than 2 years.

[ROCK]

Plane takes off in a hour EC time. Then a upper air sampling mission afterwards. JMO, by the way it looks now, they should find Helene in a few hours. Blasting right by TD status. It is not wasting any time.

[rigbyrigz]

I think it will be quite sometime before we know with confidence if this will be a Cat 1, 2, or maybe a Cat 3 at landfall. But we might start getting some clues based on how long it takes to get its act together.

The NHC already shows an "M" (rather than H) at landfall. So more than Cat 1 or 2 I think. Here in Taylor County (south of Perry) already a mandatory evacuation for tomorrow and all shelters will be closed due to severity of storm.

[3090]

Plane takes off in a hour EC time. Then a upper air sampling mission afterwards. JMO, by the way it looks now, they should find Helene in a few hours. Blasting right by TD status. It is not wasting any time.

I doubt it. ULL is still ripping. Still going to be some time. Let the ULL do its thing as long as possible. But hearing this sentiment for the past 24 hours sooner or later it will happen. Probably some time tomorrow.

[ROCK]

Plane takes off in a hour EC time. Then a upper air sampling mission afterwards. JMO, by the way it looks now, they should find Helene in a few hours. Blasting right by TD status. It is not wasting any time.

I doubt it. ULL is still ripping. Still going to be some time. Let the ULL do its thing as long as possible. But hearing this sentiment for the past 24 hours sooner or later it will happen. Probably some time tomorrow.

I will take that bet...

[Steve]

Not seeing any signs of the WNW motion that it was predicted to be going by now.

If this lack of a significant West component is still happening tomorrow, I will really have to get prepared quick here in Key West.

Im going to try to get to sleep early in case I wake up with an unpleasant surprise

You know you’re going to wake up and take a peek in the middle of the night.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like we will get four flights tomorrow beginning at 0530Z.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 24/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 24/0230Z
D. 18.0N 84.0W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION

[StPeteMike]

Plane takes off in a hour EC time. Then a upper air sampling mission afterwards. JMO, by the way it looks now, they should find Helene in a few hours. Blasting right by TD status. It is not wasting any time.

I doubt it. ULL is still ripping. Still going to be some time. Let the ULL do its thing as long as possible. But hearing this sentiment for the past 24 hours sooner or later it will happen. Probably some time tomorrow.

Sorry, the satellite image is not of a storm being ripped.

[aspen]

Plane takes off in a hour EC time. Then an upper air sampling mission afterwards. JMO, by the way it looks now, they should find Helene in a few hours. Blasting right by TD status. It is not wasting any time.

At the very least it should find a TS-strength system, even if the LLC still isn’t quite closed enough to upgrade to a TC. Last flight already supported 40 kt, dunno why the NHC kept it at TD intensity for 5pm.

[eastcoastFL]

I think it will be quite sometime before we know with confidence if this will be a Cat 1, 2, or maybe a Cat 3 at landfall. But we might start getting some clues based on how long it takes to get its act together.

The NHC already shows an "M" (rather than H) at landfall. So more than Cat 1 or 2 I think. Here in Taylor County (south of Perry) already a mandatory evacuation for tomorrow and all shelters will be closed due to severity of storm.

What do they do when the shelters are closed? Seems like it defeats the purpose of having shelters. Do they direct people towards neighboring counties with better shelters?

[DunedinDave]

Plane takes off in a hour EC time. Then a upper air sampling mission afterwards. JMO, by the way it looks now, they should find Helene in a few hours. Blasting right by TD status. It is not wasting any time.

I doubt it. ULL is still ripping. Still going to be some time. Let the ULL do its thing as long as possible. But hearing this sentiment for the past 24 hours sooner or later it will happen. Probably some time tomorrow.

Sorry, the satellite image is not of a storm being ripped.

I think it’s ripped apart from the center. But it looks to me thunderstorms wrapping around a new center further east. Is that right? That’s what it looks like to me.

[Nuno]

Plane takes off in a hour EC time. Then an upper air sampling mission afterwards. JMO, by the way it looks now, they should find Helene in a few hours. Blasting right by TD status. It is not wasting any time.

At the very least it should find a TS-strength system, even if the LLC still isn’t quite closed enough to upgrade to a TC. Last flight already supported 40 kt, dunno why the NHC kept it at TD intensity for 5pm.

It has been their pattern lately...

[ROCK]

Not seeing any signs of the WNW motion that it was predicted to be going by now.

If this lack of a significant West component is still happening tomorrow, I will really have to get prepared quick here in Key West.

Im going to try to get to sleep early in case I wake up with an unpleasant surprise

You know you’re going to wake up and take a peak in the middle of the night.

Ah come on Steve who does do that anymore?

[3090]

Plane takes off in a hour EC time. Then a upper air sampling mission afterwards. JMO, by the way it looks now, they should find Helene in a few hours. Blasting right by TD status. It is not wasting any time.

I doubt it. ULL is still ripping. Still going to be some time. Let the ULL do its thing as long as possible. But hearing this sentiment for the past 24 hours sooner or later it will happen. Probably some time tomorrow.

I will take that bet...

So if it is not a TS by the 11pm advisory the next advisory will be TOMORROW! You that sure today, at the 11pm advisory, right?

[Steve]

Plane takes off in a hour EC time. Then a upper air sampling mission afterwards. JMO, by the way it looks now, they should find Helene in a few hours. Blasting right by TD status. It is not wasting any time.

I doubt it. ULL is still ripping. Still going to be some time. Let the ULL do its thing as long as possible. But hearing this sentiment for the past 24 hours sooner or later it will happen. Probably some time tomorrow.

Sorry, the satellite image is not of a storm being ripped.

Its influence is waning as it pulls west. Gonna result in OG pattern reversal though which is why it is likely to ramp unless there are land interactions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[Steve]

Not seeing any signs of the WNW motion that it was predicted to be going by now.

If this lack of a significant West component is still happening tomorrow, I will really have to get prepared quick here in Key West.

Im going to try to get to sleep early in case I wake up with an unpleasant surprise

You know you’re going to wake up and take a peak in the middle of the night.

Ah come on Steve who does do that anymore?

All of us? Haha

[eastcoastFL]

Pressure is falling pretty quick at buoy 42056 to the west of PTC 9.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[psyclone]

I would imagine tropical storm watches would be needed with the 11 pm on the west coast below tampa bay...maybe Anna Maria southward...with watches (probably hurricane) stepped northward thereafter.

[eastcoastFL]

You know you’re going to wake up and take a peak in the middle of the night.

Ah come on Steve who does do that anymore?

All of us? Haha

I know I will and I'm fairly confident we're safe here.

[robbielyn]

who does that anymore? me too old though but can’t help myself