ATL: ALBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like its still trying to organise itself but with time running out I don't think it will, might be at landfall as a some models are suggesting.


PTC One GOES-16 Snow Cloud product - https://col.st/5bHEM

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 01, 2024061812, , BEST, 0, 216N, 927W, 35, 999, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal012024.dat

[ATXAG95]

That sucker needs to make landfall and head north. Give some relief in the Rio Grande watersheds and the Hill Country

[jaguars_22]

Very quiet here!!! What looked like 8-12 inches for us in Victoria has turned into 1-2 heaviest rains will be in corpus south.

[xironman]

It sure looks like that mid-level spin over the Yucatan wants to take over. Really if something forms it could be in multiple places in the gyre.

[Tireman4]

Very quiet here!!! What looked like 8-12 inches for us in Victoria has turned into 1-2 heaviest rains will be in corpus south.

Maybe, but the risk is still there for the upper Texas coast. The folks at HGX think so.

Deep tropical moisture will continue to pool into southeast Texas
thanks to the slowly organizing tropical disturbance in the
southwest Gulf of Mexico and the persistent LL high pressure
system over eastern CONUS. Though development into a tropical
storm appears likely, it is worth emphasizing the system`s impacts
will not be dependent on whether or not it develops. Strong
coastal winds, high coastal water levels, and periods of heavy
rainfall will be a concern regardless. As the system moves towards
towards Mexico, deep LL onshore flow will send PWATs well over 2
inches with coastal PWATs possibly approaching 3 inches by this
evening. The coverage of rainbands will gradually increase on the
north side of the disturbance, extending well north of the center
of circulation. Though isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected this morning and afternoon, the
bulk of these rainbands are expected to remain offshore. By late
this afternoon/evening and especially by tonight, these bands of
showers and thunderstorms should be moving into SE Texas from the
Gulf. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has kept our
southern/coastal counties (including the City of Houston) in a
Moderate (Level 3 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall capable of
flash flooding for the Tuesday night to Wednesday time period.

[jaguars_22]

I’m liking the Nam… lol
It’s showing a much slower system and maybe more coverage north…

[Sciencerocks]

a few similar systems
Danielle 2016 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Atla ... 6_path.png
Dolly 2014 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Atla ... 4_path.png

I think the axis will tighten up as it moves closer to land because of frictional effects. I think it will max probably as a minimal tropical storm. But that is a wait and see.

[TomballEd]

PTC1 looks to make landfall S of the concavity of the Texas Coastal Bend. The coastline is pretty flat in Mexico. A concave coastline can help a system strengthen quickly before landfall. PTC1 won't have that.

The light winds S of the low pressure because of a weak pressure gradient isn't helping it organize. Sounds like a tautology, but the more organized PTC1 can get, the more organized it will get.

[cycloneye]

Looking a little better.

[mpic]

TV meteorologists on one particular channel have declared a severe weather alert for Houston. We have seen an influx of people moving here from areas who have never experienced this kind of weather and panic is rampant in local facebook groups. Are tv ratings really that critical? I am trying my best to explain to them that they need to remain calm, be prepared and have a plan. This right here is why people become complacent and might not leave when they really need to later down the line. Off my soapbox and apologize for the rant.

[skyline385]

TV meteorologists on one particular channel have declared a severe weather alert for Houston. We have seen an influx of people moving here from areas who have never experienced this kind of weather and panic is rampant in local facebook groups. Are tv ratings really that critical? I am trying my best to explain to them that they need to remain calm, be prepared and have a plan. This right here is why people become complacent and might not leave when they really need to later down the line. Off my soapbox and apologize for the rant.

We just had a Derecho which was an actual threat, the PTC isnt even threatening us lol. What kind of groups are you seeing panic in, I am not seeing any here. Its sunny outside today and people are going about their business as usual. Rainfall forecasts have been shifting south as well.

[mpic]

It's just new transplants who are in a panic with locals trying to calm them down or worse, making fun of them. I have suggested that they come here and just read everything and get informed.

[LearnedHat]

Are there any variables still in play that could drive landfall north of La Pesca?

[Sciencerocks]

[TomballEd]

That is a mess, I see several potential centers rotating around, and that is just the ones I can see because there isn't thunderstorms hiding them on the vis. There was some hype, people showing the GFS (they call the mid range and short range model depictions 'FutureTrack. I'm pretty sure it is the GFS and 3 km NAM). GFS was good 3 days ago to hype a foot of rain in Houston. I think 1 to 2 inches covers most of Harris County as a storm total.

[Cpv17]

That is a mess, I see several potential centers rotating around, and that is just the ones I can see because there isn't thunderstorms hiding them on the vis. There was some hype, people showing the GFS (they call the mid range and short range model depictions 'FutureTrack. I'm pretty sure it is the GFS and 3 km NAM). GFS was good 3 days ago to hype a foot of rain in Houston. I think 1 to 2 inches covers most of Harris County as a storm total.

I’m just hopeful I can still get 2-3” out of this in Wharton County because I’ve only had about 3” since the start of May.

[Cpv17]

TV meteorologists on one particular channel have declared a severe weather alert for Houston. We have seen an influx of people moving here from areas who have never experienced this kind of weather and panic is rampant in local facebook groups. Are tv ratings really that critical? I am trying my best to explain to them that they need to remain calm, be prepared and have a plan. This right here is why people become complacent and might not leave when they really need to later down the line. Off my soapbox and apologize for the rant.

Definitely nothing to panic about for the Houston area. Just a few tropical showers on and off over the next couple days. Maybe 2-4” of rain spread out over a 2 day period. You can get more rain from that in a popup thunderstorm in one hour sometimes.

[LarryWx]

How strong will this thing get? I'll throw out a guess of a 50kt tropical storm, making landfall near the Mexico/Texas border.

These type of systems take a long time to get going. I'm thinking 35-40 kts in a few squalls N-NE of the broad center.

Are you thinking true TS? Interestingly fwiw, the new UKMET (12Z) has no TC from this for the first time in many runs. Not saying it will necessarily be right.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1803094050561732705