ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hipshot]

So I wanted to check today to see if the forecast was still trending "out to sea" after the islands. The funny thing is, I had my answer before I clicked on this thread. Once I saw the thread only had 2 pages, I knew, "Yep, still out to sea" But of course I wanted to post this, so Is till clicked on the thread anyway lol. Page total tells ya everything

I don't know about OTS yet, still a long way to go. It still looks like it is going to hit the LA and GA to some extent so who know.

Geez. I must be tired. I actually spent a few seconds wondering "Now, how in the world could it hit Louisiana and Georgia without going through MIssissippi, Alabama, or Florida?"

Duh.

Sorry about the abbreviation, I was having trouble spelling Antillies...oops Antilles...see

['CaneFreak]

I’m struggling a bit with the placement of this invest tag. Can anyone help me out here? I’m looking at CIMMS analysis and it looks like the best rotation is to the southeast of where they’ve placed the invest tag up by 12 N and 42 W. The best vorticity is closer to 10.5 N and 40 W. Also, if you put on the shear analysis the anticyclone is to the east of the invest tag. Also if you look at the steering flow, it looks like it is going to go south of where the models are taking it in my opinion. It’s not stacked yet obviously (we all know that) but it is just interesting. I wonder if it will end up consolidating a bit farther to the southeast than forecast. Check this site out. Turn on “Vort” (Vorticity or spin), “Shear”, and “DLM” (Mean Layer Steering). Run a loop of the satellite too while you are at it. “VIS/SWIR” at the top and loop at the left.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=98L&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0&llval=OFF

[Hurricane Mike]

I was more confident about out to sea yesterday, but it is just too early until we have a system well developed. 

[REDHurricane]

Definitely getting more organized now near 13ºN, 40ºW:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next couple of days while the system approaches and then moves near
or over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches
or warnings could be required for portions of the area as soon as
later today. The system could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

[TomballEd]

Impact on the Greater Antilles looks likely. GFS ensembles look stronger, but none shows really intense hurricanes. Maybe Puerto Rico and Hispaniola avoid a serious impact, but that isn't certain.

CONUS impact looks increasingly less likely.

[Sciencerocks]

[hiflyer]

“Out to sea”…is that another phrase for Bermuda? Grin! Seeing some very low pressure numbers developing on the models that go out that far in time in proximity to Bermuda.

[WaveBreaking]

The N part of 98L’s overall vorticity has recently been getting more constant convection along with a more focused area of rotation. This might be where the core tries to set up. Also note the broad arc of small flareups at the end of the loop on the S side. Those might be the start of some primitive banding.

[wxman57]

If it develops prior to passing PR, then it has a clear shot to turn north, where it would threaten Bermuda and possibly NS/NF in about 9 days. I put the center at 13.8N/45.6W now. Weak rotation there.

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches will
likely be required for portions of the area as soon as this
afternoon. The system could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

[lilbump3000]

(August 11) Advisories will be initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five later this afternoon, as watches and warnings will be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[Sciencerocks]

Doesn't look to be anywhere near closed yet and any "broad" circ is on the eastern portion of the convection. Development will be slow over the next few days.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it develops prior to passing PR, then it has a clear shot to turn north, where it would threaten Bermuda and possibly NS/NF in about 9 days. I put the center at 13.8N/45.6W now. Weak rotation there.

Yea after is passes the islands(and hopefully north of them) the only other thing I'm worried about when it comes to Debbie is Bermuda. And yea Nova Scotia is still a possibility at this point. Let's hope it's zooming really fast or is falling apart by the time it reaches that area.

[Blown Away]

Over past 15 or so years it seems that many systems make hard north turns deep from the tropics… A few decades ago it seemed most moved around the periphery of the BH while recurving… Maybe it’s just me…

[LarryWx]

Over past 15 or so years it seems that many systems make hard north turns deep from the tropics… A few decades ago it seemed most moved around the periphery of the BH while recurving… Maybe it’s just me…

2024 has already had Debby that didn’t. 2023 and 2014 did but I think that’s more common for El Niño. 2010 had a pretty good number but then it also had a good number move W into C America/MX. Most other years of last 15 look like a mix.

[Stormlover70]

Over past 15 or so years it seems that many systems make hard north turns deep from the tropics… A few decades ago it seemed most moved around the periphery of the BH while recurving… Maybe it’s just me…

that is climate change.

[tolakram]

(August 11) Advisories will be initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five later this afternoon, as watches and warnings will be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/xq70/923/HjDozW.jpg [/url]

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/706/bAQ0kJ.gif [/url]

The NHC will not be issuing advisories as far as I can tell. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Please be clear if you are indicating your own advisories vs an official source. Thanks.

[Cachondo23]

I see a Marilyn 95’ analog for this storm. Mainly in terms of the potential route. We shall see.

[wxman57]

(August 11) Advisories will be initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five later this afternoon, as watches and warnings will be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/xq70/923/HjDozW.jpg [/url]

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/706/bAQ0kJ.gif [/url]

The NHC will not be issuing advisories as far as I can tell. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Please be clear if you are indicating your own advisories vs an official source. Thanks.

I can't confirm whether or not the NHC will start PTC advisories this afternoon, but the system may be producing TS wind in the islands within 48 hours, necessitating a TS watch. Development chances high. That meets there criteria for initiating PTC advisories. I'm close to 100% sure they'll start advisories this afternoon.