ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Odeseus]

Designated a TD to cat 3 in under 40 hours.

Where does that fall in the record books? I would have never have thought it possible in that location. Gulf maybe. EPac maybe.

[3090]

Designated a TD to cat 3 in under 40 hours.

Where does that fall in the record books? I would have never have thought it possible in that location. Gulf maybe. EPac maybe.

Add in this time/part of the hurricane season. Unreal.

[Blinhart]

Im gonna go with a bold prediction and say this becomes a cat 5 by the end of this day

I was thinking the same thing. Hopefully doesn't have too many EWRC to cause her to get much larger.

[Texoz]

Designated a TD to cat 3 in under 40 hours.

Where does that fall in the record books? I would have never have thought it possible in that location. Gulf maybe. EPac maybe.

I suspect Beryl is going to break a few more records before she's done.

[GCANE]

Firing on all cylinders
75mm/hr rain rate

[Blinhart]

Firing on all cylinders
75mm/hr rain rate

3 inches an hour is good but not that heavy, here in South Louisiana we have storms like that all the time, but not for hours on end like this one might do, so hopefully she stays fast.

[Teban54]

NOAA plane entering from the north: 110 kt FL, 107 kt SFMR. This set of data stopped right at the 107 kt SFMR, so it's theoretically possible that higher SFMR readings may follow.

IIRC, the NOAA planes are often a few mbs too low on extrapolated pressure, something to keep in mind when the next set of data with pressure readings come in.

Edit: As others mentioned below, NOAA's extrap pressure was 965.7 mb. Southern quad has 92 kt FL, 98 kt SFMR.

[IsabelaWeather]

Firing on all cylinders
75mm/hr rain rate

3 inches an hour is good but not that heavy, here in South Louisiana we have storms like that all the time, but not for hours on end like this one might do, so hopefully she stays fast.

No, it IS that heavy. I believe it's near the top for an eyewall.

This isnt a garden variety microburst downpour where you get 5-8in/hr rates.

[GCANE]

Significantly south of forecast track!!!

[RT23]

Significantly south of forecast track!!!

Made me breathe a lil better as I am in Barbados

[kevin]

NOAA plane pass: 965.7 mb, 110 kt FL, 107 kt SFMR.

[zzzh]

Talking about ERi here. Beryl became a TD on 6.28 at 18z. It's only been 42h since the designation.

[aspen]

Probably 105 kt now based on the NOAA data we have so far. This may be at 110 kt by the time of the 11am advisory, and will probably hit Cat 4 intensity by 5pm. That would make it the strongest June system on record in terms of wind speed (Alex ‘10 was in the 940s, which I don’t see Beryl exceeding today).

[zzzh]

Probably 105 kt now based on the NOAA data we have so far. This may be at 110 kt by the time of the 11am advisory, and will probably hit Cat 4 intensity by 5pm. That would make it the strongest June system on record in terms of wind speed (Alex ‘10 was in the 940s, which I don’t see Beryl exceeding today).

Notice that the NOAA plane is flying at 750mb, with a conversion factor around 0.85 - 0.86.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

What can we expect here in Barbados

[Tammster]

What can we expect here in Barbados

I'm wondering about the storm surge on the south side of Barbados.


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[Teban54]

Eye rounding out:

[Weatherwatcher2018]

What can we expect here in Barbados

I'm wondering about the storm surge on the south side of Barbados.


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In my pass experience these storms usually shift north of Barbados at the last minute when we expect a direct impact so I am wondering if we can expect a late northern shift and expect a closer impact

[zzzh]

AL, 02, 2024063012, , BEST, 0, 106N, 540W, 105, 968, HU,

[jlauderdal]

What can we expect here in Barbados

I'm wondering about the storm surge on the south side of Barbados.


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In my pass experience these storms usually shift north of Barbados at the last minute when we expect a direct impact so I am wondering if we can expect a late northern shift and expect a closer impact

Anyone in the warning area should be preparing for a 5, simple as that. Determining late shifts and intensity changes is a fool's game, especially this season.