ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[3090]

Eye rounding out:
https://i.postimg.cc/XND4VNfS/goes16-ir-meso1.gif

It is like a runaway turbine!!

[GCANE]

Moving straight west.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Intensity bar quite high, most violent hurricane to approach the islands since Maria.

Barring something unforeseen, I am unfortunately guessing a 130 knot peak.

[Kazmit]

It's just bizarre to zoom out and see where she is located.

[Teban54]

It's just bizarre to zoom out and see where she is located.

https://i.ibb.co/3Mmh82K/Beryl2.jpg

I know this has been repeated a billion times, but this gets even more bizarre when you look above the image and see "12:15z Jun 30, 2024".

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/splillo/status/1807392172775256230

[NDG]

Recon shows Beryl continues to strengthen this morning.

122300 1043N 05402W 6973 02944 //// +099 //// 107099 108 111 010 01
122330 1041N 05402W 6974 02915 9706 +162 +145 104068 084 112 006 03
122400 1039N 05403W 6967 02907 9677 +178 +127 105053 062 090 000 00
122430 1038N 05403W 6967 02899 9668 +180 +105 106038 049 059 000 00
122500 1036N 05403W 6973 02885 9663 +181 +098 109027 032 038 000 00
122530 1034N 05404W 6967 02889 9654 +183 +098 122017 024 026 001 00
122600 1033N 05405W 6964 02895 9648 +191 +099 113010 013 023 000 00
122630 1031N 05406W 6965 02894 9642 +197 +101 092010 011 026 000 03
122700 1029N 05406W 6967 02894 9679 +165 +102 310011 021 033 001 00
122730 1028N 05407W 6973 02901 9714 +147 +102 295031 038 066 003 00

[tolakram]

latest


source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-12-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Teban54]

Recon shows Beryl continues to strengthen this morning.

122300 1043N 05402W 6973 02944 //// +099 //// 107099 108 111 010 01
122330 1041N 05402W 6974 02915 9706 +162 +145 104068 084 112 006 03
122400 1039N 05403W 6967 02907 9677 +178 +127 105053 062 090 000 00
122430 1038N 05403W 6967 02899 9668 +180 +105 106038 049 059 000 00
122500 1036N 05403W 6973 02885 9663 +181 +098 109027 032 038 000 00
122530 1034N 05404W 6967 02889 9654 +183 +098 122017 024 026 001 00
122600 1033N 05405W 6964 02895 9648 +191 +099 113010 013 023 000 00
122630 1031N 05406W 6965 02894 9642 +197 +101 092010 011 026 000 03
122700 1029N 05406W 6967 02894 9679 +165 +102 310011 021 033 001 00
122730 1028N 05407W 6973 02901 9714 +147 +102 295031 038 066 003 00

There was a 110 kt FL reading just before the 108 on the first line here. Note that the 112 kt SFMR is flagged, but the 111 kt SFMR is not.

Edit: Typo (originally said 111 kt FL)

[kevin]

Another pass: 964.2 mb, 110 kt FL, 111 kt SFMR. That's a drop of 4.7 mb in 74 minutes.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hate to say it but I really think Beryl is on track to potentially directly impact Grenada. Trending south of the forecast points. Even if minimal, every small shift matters with this one.

[NDG]

Almost a perfect symmetry. Somebody pinch me, I can't believe is I'm looking at this on June 30th in this area of the Atlantic.

[InfernoFlameCat]

June is wild for a system like this. Unbelievable. I worry about later on if it reaches the gulf.

[Hurricane2022]

My coworker thinks it may enter the Caribbean as far south as Grenada, as models are almost always too far north in situations like this. NHC will likely be adjusting their track southward with time.

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/2cAUE3f.jpeg

(From 96L thread)

[TheAustinMan]

The base of the eye was rather clear at moments this morning, with even a distinct lack of low-level clouds at times. Once the cirrus trapped within the eye clears, infrared temperatures may rise quite sharply.

Source: AWIPS CAVE

[Xyls]

Hate to say it but I really think Beryl is on track to potentially directly impact Grenada. Trending south of the forecast points. Even if minimal, every small shift matters with this one.

Which if we recall what Ivan did to the island as a Category 3 in 2004. We should be extremely concerned about this outcome.

[Category5Kaiju]

It almost seems like both the WPAC and the EPAC sent some spiritual energy into the Atlantic. Because….wow, this is just absurd.

[Teban54]

SW quad: 95 kt FL, 91 kt SFMR

[tolakram]

Dean / Felix / now Beryl. We will see if the ridge breaks down but modeling is a lot better and the GFS is still wrong, so I suspect it will do exactly as 57 said it would, juuust a tad stronger.