ATL: BERYL - Models

[LarryWx]

JMA (fwiw) is at Galveston just like it was on the run from 24 hours ago.

[Blinhart]

Since this system is staying South of Jamaica and the core of the system won't be thrashed by the Mountains I expect this to stay a Major all the way to the Yucatan. I could see her barely clip the Yucatan and take a much further North route.

[Nederlander]

The 12z runs all have Beryl approaching the Yucatán at 980-990 mb..

[jaguars_22]

Pretty good consensus in that too! Euro did move further north but this storm has thrown a wrinkle in the models! Finally the models are getting the pressure right

[sphelps8681]

How many days before the next landfall into the Yucatan?

[jaguars_22]

Give or take 60 hours until it gets into gulf

[Jonny]

Since this system is staying South of Jamaica and the core of the system won't be thrashed by the Mountains I expect this to stay a Major all the way to the Yucatan. I could see her barely clip the Yucatan and take a much further North route.

MTE. I had a feeling it could hit southern Jamaica or be directly underneath, then hit a more northern part of the Yucatán, that would cause less land interaction, and enter the GOM.

[Frank P]

18Z ICON...

[ROCK]

the un-wavering ICON...lol I havent seen a MX run at all with this model.

[Frank P]

the un-wavering ICON...lol I havent seen a MX run at all with this model.

Ha, the ICON is either going to be consistently good, or consistently bad....

[HoustonFrog]

ICON stronger and into Galveston. Will be interesting to see rest of 18zs

[Wampadawg]

the un-wavering ICON...lol I havent seen a MX run at all with this model.

Ha, the ICON is either going to be consistently good, or consistently bad....

Look like the cone keeps inching towards East

[IcyTundra]

ICON is either completely out to lunch or catching on to something the other models aren't seeing. I would lean towards the ICON being out to lunch but at this point idk with how Beryl has been acting today.

[AerospaceEng]

ICON stronger and into Galveston. Will be interesting to see rest of 18zs

And 0z runs. I think most 12z runs are worthless at this point.

[jaguars_22]

Gfs even weaker!

[Stratton23]

jaguars_ 22 not buying it at all, stays just off shore of jamaica, GFS will correct stronger over time

[tolakram]

Gfs even weaker!

You're right, it initializes the storm even weaker than before. Once again these runs can't be believed. Look for the hurricane models to confirm if the init is good.

[ROCK]

Gfs even weaker!

Where are you seeing the run? I get my runs off Tidbits but the 18Z GFS hasnt loaded yet.

[Woofde]

Gfs even weaker!

It's shows a 988mb system at 2am tonight, that seems like extreme weakening in 8 hours. If that's gonna hold up, Beryl will have to start falling apart very soon.

[tolakram]

Gfs even weaker!

Where are you seeing the run? I get my runs off Tidbits but the 18Z GFS hasnt loaded yet.

Hard refresh, it's running.