ATL: HELENE - Models

[tolakram]

Latest hurricane models

[tolakram]

GFS and Euro

[SconnieCane]

960MB from the Euro is significant. Indicates those 920s and lower hurricane model runs might not be completely outside the realm of possibility.

[tolakram]

Every model shows strengthening all the way in, except for maybe the Canadian, which seems lost in the north woods.

[tolakram]

I left out the Icon

[TallyTracker]

I’m leaving Tallahassee shortly. Definitely is the right decision. Those are terrible runs for this area!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF/HAFSA are virtually identical - HAFSB goes absolutely nuclear after 30 hours of the three.

[ronjon]

Interesting that the Euro, GFS, and ICON are slightly east of NHC landfall. May not mean much as we'll soon be into real time tracking of the storm. Oh and you can add 00z Euro-AI which has a similar track as the ICON with a Steinhatchee landfall.

[kevin]

06z blend, category 4 before landfall. Peak intensities of 943mb/105kt for HWRF, 946mb/105kt for HMON, 929mb/133kt for HAFS-A and 908mb/157kt for HAFS-B. Note that based on recon Helene seems to be ahead of the models as we speak (latest recon pass supports 978 mb and winds of 60 kt). I strongly doubt that it's gonna take another 18 hours for Helene to become a hurricane, like the blend is showing.

Blend
PEAK: 932 mb @ 42 hrs | 123 kt @ 42 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 984 / 60
06 / 982 / 54
12 / 977 / 58
18 / 972 / 63
24 / 972 / 79 - C1
30 / 954 / 96 - C2
36 / 944 / 105 - C3
39 / 934 / 117 - C4
42 / 932 / 123 - landfall
45 / 944 / 81

[ronjon]

TWC radar-based model now shows a Steinhatchee landfall. For those unfamiliar with Florida geography, that location is about 50-60 miles east of the NHC landfall.

[StormPyrate]

everything I see including the actual location to track is missing to the west, all morning its been east of track

[TraumaCane]

I’m leaving Tallahassee shortly. Definitely is the right decision. Those are terrible runs for this area!

We also live in Tally and thinking about leaving. I have two young kids and don't really feel like dealing with this here. This place isn't ready for a bad storm and being a life long South Floridian and Hurricane Andrew kid I don't take these lightly.

[Texashawk]

There is a lot of consensus in those models, even a few days out. It really feels like Tallahassee‘s number is up this time.

[Kazmit]

The 06z GFS has it reaching 979mb tomorrow morning. It’s 979mb right now.

[MetsIslesNoles]

I’m leaving Tallahassee shortly. Definitely is the right decision. Those are terrible runs for this area!

Be safe. I'm riding it out.

[tolakram]

I’m leaving Tallahassee shortly. Definitely is the right decision. Those are terrible runs for this area!

Be safe. I'm riding it out.

I'm pretty sure I don't have to remind you, but for anyone else reading, with these big storms, travel due to down trees / power lines/ etc will be near impossible for a while, make sure you have enough supplies to last a while. Also this is the models thread, maybe time to make a local thread.

[Powellrm]

TWC radar-based model now shows a Steinhatchee landfall. For those unfamiliar with Florida geography, that location is about 50-60 miles east of the NHC landfall.

Interestingly, ICON has been on this for a few days now. This may shape up to be another good early call for the ICON.

[Gums]

Thank you, Mark, was about to make same suggestion. Local news from locals about shelters and roads is better than Weather Channel!

Having stayed behind for a few storms, one must consider the elevation and distance from the shore as well as the "impact angle". Then evaluate the buildings around you and find what past storms did.

Tally repaired many components of their grid and vegetative hazards after Michael. Even so, wind and rain will be biggies. Electrical service will be a biggie, more than missing roofs and ten feet of surge ( although those pesky vortices can do what small tornadoes do). Except for small kids, healthy adults and teens can help a lot before, during and after a storm. Personal experience, and our insurance dude cut our deductible because we could mitigate damage from the tree that came thru the roof!

Gasoline will be near impossible later today ( 25th), so that is a biggie for car/van as well as a generator. But if you are an experienced camper or storm vet, it is sometimes better to find a secure place and come back later.

Gums sends...

[Woofde]

TWC radar-based model now shows a Steinhatchee landfall. For those unfamiliar with Florida geography, that location is about 50-60 miles east of the NHC landfall.

Interestingly, ICON has been on this for a few days now. This may shape up to be another good early call for the ICON.

Speaking of the ICON, 12z run is stronger and a touch slower, maybe a hair West.

[gulfcoastdave]

I’m leaving Tallahassee shortly. Definitely is the right decision. Those are terrible runs for this area!

Be safe. I'm riding it out.

I'm over near pensacola but mummy daughter lives in Tally and is leaving after work this afternoon.
Many business are staying open in tally
If the path is correct and tally takes a hit ,power will be out for awhile due to all the big trees