ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Teban54]

This pass shows a significantly more symmetrical wind field than before. Sfmr shows almost as high of winds in the nw quad as the se quad. More discrepancy aloft in the FL winds, but I think that’s to be expected since Milton has been best organized in the low levels up to this point. Pressure hasn’t dropped substantially yet but that will change soon. RI underway

It appears that Milton is in the phase where winds are catching up with pressure, as it already got down to 991 or 986 mb during the earlier recon.

72 hours ago, this was supposed to be a frontal low all the way. Crazy.

[xironman]

Didn't expect this so soon

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

[dukeblue219]

The raw "extrapolated" pressures are fun to watch in real time, but dropsonde and vortex messages are more reliable. I'd suggest not trying to define RI as a true/false condition, and especially not based on extrap pressures from each fix.

[Pasmorade]

Didn't expect this so soon

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

Helene didn't even have a closed eye until it was a Cat 3...

[psyclone]

It looks like the whole convective canopy is expanding. Our storm is strengthening and getting larger

[cycloneye]

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
INTO A HURRICANE....


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 94.0W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHE

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder if it's possible for Milton to peak at Cat 4 instead of 3?

[norva13x]

Would it be overkill to board up windows in Polk County?

[johngaltfla]

Would it be overkill to board up windows in Polk County?

South facing windows? No.

But again, it depends on the track. Tomorrow will provide the best picture.

[CrazyC83]

Would it be overkill to board up windows in Polk County?

Not at all. If it makes landfall as a category 3 (for example), it would likely still bring hurricane conditions there, or at a minimum strong tropical storm.

[GCANE]

RI correlating exactly with ionospheric heating.
Could see an EWRC withing 24 hours.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if it's possible for Milton to peak at Cat 4 instead of 3?

My guess is the next advisory will show a cat 4 peak. Honestly, cat 5 isn't out of the question.

[Pasmorade]

I wonder if it's possible for Milton to peak at Cat 4 instead of 3?

Since Milton wasn't supposed to be a hurricane for over 12 hours, probably.

[CronkPSU]

Would it be overkill to board up windows in Polk County?

Where in Polk (it is a big county)

[aspen]

Another hot tower is going off in that gap in the SE quadrant, finally completing the CDO around the formative eye.

[dizzyfish]

Would it be overkill to board up windows in Polk County?

1. not if it makes you feel better
2. always be prepared for the worst case
3. if Milton comes your way - you will see hurricane force winds

[GCANE]

Eye is closed
30 mile diameter

[Michele B]

As for the track, I'm thinking Port Charlotte, NOT Tampa. NHC shifted the landfall south, but they're still well north of consensus. They'll adjust their track farther south this afternoon.
Good news for Tampa, bad new for Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers.

A couple pages ago, someone said, "When they say Tampa, think Punta Gorda."

How true that has proven to be! I hope this isn't going to be one more.

[WaveBreaking]

Eye-feature on visible

[norva13x]

Would it be overkill to board up windows in Polk County?

Where in Polk (it is a big county)

Lake Wales