ATL: HELENE - Models

[caneman]

Bloody Icon. That hair shift east is putting some core effects into the west coast surge. That’s the problem with this track angle and also the intensity which is likely going to be higher than 947 mb. Can’t let your guard down on this one.

100%, even a 1/2 degree closer to the Tampa Bay area means higher end surge and even more wind.

[tolakram]

12z euro


Trend

[Lance]

12z euro
https://i.imgur.com/gwwLhZz.png

Trend
https://i.imgur.com/EuyE69Z.gif

East trend? Can’t tell on my phone.

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS also trended a bit east, especially in the 24-30 hour timeframe

[Travorum]

18z GFS



Trend

[FLLurker32]

18z GFS also trended a bit east, especially in the 24-30 hour timeframe

That approach is horrible. It scrapes the west coast before landfall. The amount of water it would push up into Tampa Bay and Cedar key would be horrific.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS


Ends up just south of me

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS also trended a bit east, especially in the 24-30 hour timeframe

That approach is horrible. It scrapes the west coast before landfall. The amount of water it would push up into Tampa Bay and Cedar key would be horrific.

Yes if it was to follow that exact track it would be quite a surge event from Tampa northward.

[tolakram]

Total precip

[jlauderdal]

Total precip

I already had 1.1 today so probably underdone at least in our area.

[SoupBone]

18Z GFS
https://i.imgur.com/EtdjBAR.gif

Ends up just south of me

What's interesting about that run, is that the official forecast ends up with Helene over Nashville, sitting. That run would be quite different.

[ronjon]

I'm scratching my head on the NHC landfall position the last 12 hours. Some of our best models: Euro, Euro-AI, GFS, and ICON are all pointing toward a Taylor or Dixie county landfall yet NHC has slowing been shifting landfall slightly west each advisory now just east of Apalachicola. They must be weighting the hurricane model suite and CMC in their projections is best I can figure.

[USTropics]

I'm scratching my head on the NHC landfall position the last 12 hours. Some of our best models: Euro, Euro-AI, GFS, and ICON are all pointing toward a Taylor or Dixie county landfall yet NHC has slowing been shifting landfall slightly west each advisory now just east of Apalachicola. They must be weighting the hurricane model suite and CMC in their projections is best I can figure.

It's essentially dead on with the 18z GFS/UKMET ensemble mean and the TVCN:

[StormPyrate]

Strangely those have been further west than the actual model runs all day
odd

[Travorum]

[gatorcane]

I'm scratching my head on the NHC landfall position the last 12 hours. Some of our best models: Euro, Euro-AI, GFS, and ICON are all pointing toward a Taylor or Dixie county landfall yet NHC has slowing been shifting landfall slightly west each advisory now just east of Apalachicola. They must be weighting the hurricane model suite and CMC in their projections is best I can figure.

It's essentially dead on with the 18z GFS/UKMET ensemble mean and the TVCN:
https://i.imgur.com/7c0n4Hv.png
https://i.imgur.com/hw63oSh.png
https://i.imgur.com/3mGXFoI.png

I was wondering the same. The GFS/EC/EC-AIFS/ICON all show a landfall more east. In fact these models show a pronounced NE turn in GOM before going back NNE which is not reflected in the NHC track. For example, the 18Z GFS 0-24 hour animation below:

[canes92]

Looks like Tally fixin' to get their first major hurricane ever?

[gatorcane]

Latest 18Z GEFS ensembles, with a slight SE shift from the 12Z and east of the NHC track:

[caneman]

Latest 18Z GEFS ensembles, with a slight SE shift from the 12Z and east of the NHC track:
https://i.postimg.cc/Y2JmDJTR/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-36.gif

I've noticed the same in previous storms. I'm not questioning the NHC'S ability but I am asking does that mean they've discounted these other models for one reason or another? Legit question and would like a knowledgeable persons answer and not guess work.

[tolakram]

Latest 18Z GEFS ensembles, with a slight SE shift from the 12Z and east of the NHC track:
https://i.postimg.cc/Y2JmDJTR/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh0-36.gif

I've noticed the same in previous storms. I'm not questioning the NHC'S ability but I am asking does that mean they've discounted these other models for one reason or another? Legit question.

I'm not sure, you could ask them. They still use the Florida State Super ensemble as far as I know, and it's skill blending various models has shown to be higher than individual models.