ATL: BERYL - Models

[shah83]

GFS finally got a bit more serious about the intensity of the storm, and then doubled down on the westward bend, and the whole destroyed in the bay of campeche deal. What the heck...

[LarryWx]

12Z JMA hooks it right into Freeport. Just for fun...

Not because it is a good model (it isn’t at all), but for the record just in case the highly unlikely landfall at the upper TX coast were to occur:

these 12Z JMA runs landfall at the upper TX coast: 6/30, 7/2, 7/3, 7/4…so 4 of the last 5 12Z JMA runs

[LadyBug72]

Did the 18Z Icon move down by Brownsville?

[ROCK]

Did the 18Z Icon move down by Brownsville?

no more mid coast...not yet any way..lol

[LadyBug72]

Did the 18Z Icon move down by Brownsville?

no more mid coast...not yet any way..lol

LOL! Thanks! I don’t really follow the ICON but I did get a message that it moved down by Brownsville so I was curious.

[ROCK]

12Z JMA hooks it right into Freeport. Just for fun...

Not because it is a good model (it isn’t at all), but for the record just in case the highly unlikely landfall at the upper TX coast were to occur:

these 12Z JMA runs landfall at the upper TX coast: 6/30, 7/2, 7/3, 7/4…so 4 of the last 5 12Z JMA runs

lol...interesting to see the NHC spread on Sunday night.....that cone is more than half of the TX coastline up to Surfside almost...tells me they are hedging their bet a little. lol .....JMO of course

[LARanger]

Been trying to search for a few days to see what happened to the classic SFWMD model display graphic product. I realize there are better looking ones, but I tended to prefer it anyway, if only for the XTRP and CLP5 entertainment value.

Anyone know what happened?

Old link:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Example image:

[ColdFusion]

12Z JMA hooks it right into Freeport. Just for fun...

Not because it is a good model (it isn’t at all), but for the record just in case the highly unlikely landfall at the upper TX coast were to occur:

these 12Z JMA runs landfall at the upper TX coast: 6/30, 7/2, 7/3, 7/4…so 4 of the last 5 12Z JMA runs

lol...interesting to see the NHC spread on Sunday night.....that cone is more than half of the TX coastline up to Surfside almost...tells me they are hedging their bet a little. lol .....JMO of course

The spread of the hurricane cone remains consistent and does not vary.

[Blinhart]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[ROCK]

18Z HMON keeps it pretty weak across the GOM. Never recovers from the Yuc. looks about MX/ TX...

Edit: squeezes in around Brownsville and proceeds to run up the coast line at 84hr

[Stratton23]

Im not buying it

[utweather]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_tracks_latest.png

Brownsville, TX could get a direct hit or at least be on the very bad side. I dont think this is a case of being in the path 3 days out means you wont get hit.

[Stratton23]

The HWRF is likely the closest to whats going to happen, im just not buying the ofher hurricane models weakening this down to a cat 1 at landfall, HWRF has a cat 3 at landfall near cozumal, i think thats more of a likely scenario as the hurricane is definitely improving in organization, shear is going down

[South Texas Storms]

18z Euro looks reasonable. Shifted a bit north from the 12z run. Shows a strengthening hurricane making a final landfall just south of Brownsville early Monday morning. 973 mb at landfall.

[ROCK]

18Z GFS kills it way south into MX...keeps it weak after Yuc. probably why..

[Stratton23]

It eventually should get pulled north into texas due to the trough, i dont expect a due west motion once its inland

[cycloneye]

18z Euro looks reasonable. Shifted a bit north from the 12z run. Shows a strengthening hurricane making a final landfall just south of Brownsville early Monday morning. 973 mb at landfall.

That is the strongest run yet from Euro for the landfall in NE Mexico, close to Brownsville.

[starsfan65]

It eventually should get pulled north into texas due to the trough, i dont expect a due west motion once its inland

I don't buy the west movement.

[LadyBug72]

It eventually should get pulled north into texas due to the trough, i dont expect a due west motion once its inland

I don't buy the west movement.

The pro Mets are saying it’s moving west right now.

[Stratton23]

Im more so talking about the west movement once it gets inland near texas, it should get pulled N- NW into texas, could be a significant rain event out of this for the state somewhere