ATL: BERYL - Models

[Stratton23]

Models are starting to trend toward a deeper US trough, allowing for maybe more of a pull north ward

[3090]

Models are starting to trend toward a deeper US trough, allowing for maybe more of a pull north ward

Not going to move more northward before the Carribean. It will tend to slightly go north of west before the islands, IF it becomes a hurricane. A more northward component once in the NW CS (YC), will be due to the influence of a US trough.

[Stratton23]

3090 thats what i meant, for sure the bermuda high wont allow this to recurve, once the system reaches the NW caribbean, deeper trough * Could* pull a system further north into the gulf

[Cpv17]

It’ll be interesting if the 0z Euro just buries this into CA again.

[Woofde]

Despite the weaker operational run, the GFS ensembles actually notably ticked upwards. They show a stronger signal than 18z at 5 days. There's not much track change, maybe a small tick northwards.

Interestingly, the wave on 95L's heels is still in the picture. It certainly adds a degree of complexity in the long run.

[zzzh]

00Z EPS trended a lot stronger in MDR development, but also weaker for peak intensity.

[aspen]

Despite the weaker operational run, the GFS ensembles actually notably ticked upwards. They show a stronger signal than 18z at 5 days. There's not much track change, maybe a small tick northwards.

Interestingly, the wave on 95L's heels is still in the picture. It certainly adds a degree of complexity in the long run.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240628/86aaf35a6dc851939dc512e2123d8b79.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240628/a476c6b4f7e73ac375d1e08d809ad29d.jpg

This reminds me of both Elsa ‘21 and Bret ‘23, which had another MDR invest behind them. The one in 2021 fizzled out, while the one in 2023 became a weak TS. I think it’s too early to say which scenario future-96L will follow. If 95L becomes fairly robust, its outflow could shear away future-96L and limit development.

[Nimbus]

Despite the weaker operational run, the GFS ensembles actually notably ticked upwards. They show a stronger signal than 18z at 5 days. There's not much track change, maybe a small tick northwards.

Interestingly, the wave on 95L's heels is still in the picture. It certainly adds a degree of complexity in the long run.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240628/86aaf35a6dc851939dc512e2123d8b79.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240628/a476c6b4f7e73ac375d1e08d809ad29d.jpg

Small tick north would be bad news for NOLA or even west coast Florida.

[kevin]

A new overview of 06z models (HWRF/HMON/HAFS-A/HAFS-B/GFS) including a blend. Models are very bullish with HWRF even showing a cat 4 and all hurricane models showing a strong hurricane. Blend shows a TD later today, a TS within 24 hours and a hurricane within 3 days (moving up in the timeframe compared to yesterday) and a peak as a strong cat 2.

HWRF
PEAK: 950 mb @ 99 hrs | 123 kt @ 99 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1007 / 30
06 / 1010 / 30 - TD
12 / 1007 / 31
18 / 1005 / 39
24 / 1005 / 33
30 / 1004 / 40 - TS
36 / 997 / 59
42 / 998 / 50
48 / 994 / 65
54 / 995 / 55
60 / 988 / 62
66 / 984 / 71 - C1
72 / 981 / 85 - C2
78 / 981 / 81
84 / 969 / 87
90 / 963 / 98 / - C3
96 / 960 / 108
102 / 953 / 121 - C4
108 / 967 / 110
114 / 977 / 91
120 / 976 / 95
126 / 972 / 99

HMON
PEAK: 967 mb @ 96 hrs | 109 kt @ 93 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1007 / 30
06 / 1006 / 38 - TD
12 / 1006 / 31
18 / 1003 / 44 - TS
24 / 1003 / 38
30 / 998 / 54
36 / 1002 / 43
42 / 1000 / 52
48 / 996 / 54
54 / 993 / 54
60 / 989 / 67 - C1
66 / 984 / 70
72 / 980 / 78
78 / 975 / 97 - C3
84 / 974 / 103
90 / 968 / 107
96 / 967 / 107
102 / 971 / 95
108 / 975 / 87
114 / 974 / 97
120 / 973 / 104
126 / 975 / 89

HAFS-A
PEAK: 975 mb @ 99 hrs | 96 kt @ 108 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1006 / 33
06 / 1005 / 38 - TD
12 / 1005 / 33
18 / 1004 / 37 - TS
24 / 1003 / 36
30 / 1003 / 43
36 / 1006 / 39
42 / 1004 / 49
48 / 1001 / 53
54 / 1002 / 51
60 / 997 / 56
66 / 996 / 59
72 / 991 / 57
78 / 990 / 65 - C1
84 / 986 / 76
90 / 984 / 80
96 / 981 / 74
102 / 981 / 81
108 / 977 / 96 - C2
114 / 984 / 72
120 / 988 / 67
126 / 985 / 73

HAFS-B
PEAK: 969 mb @ 123 hrs | 101 kt @ 117 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1005 / 32
06 / 1006 / 36 - TD
12 / 1004 / 37
18 / 1006 / 33
24 / 1003 / 39 - TS
30 / 1008 / 37
36 / 1003 / 41
42 / 1003 / 54
48 / 998 / 60
54 / 999 / 55
60 / 991 / 61
66 / 987 / 77 - C1
72 / 985 / 78
78 / 981 / 88 - C2
84 / 974 / 86
90 / 973 / 95
96 / 972 / 91
102 / 973 / 97
108 / 971 / 94
114 / 973 / 93
120 / 970 / 97
126 / 972 / 75 post-landfall

GFS
PEAK: 976 mb @ 90 hrs | 83 kt @ 90 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1006 / 25
06 / 1008 / 31 - TD
12 / 1005 / 35
18 / 1007 / 33
24 / 1000 / 41 - TS
30 / 1001 / 48
36 / 996 / 50
42 / 997 / 53
48 / 991 / 58
54 / 993 / 60
60 / 991 / 59
66 / 992 / 59
72 / 989 / 63
78 / 987 / 69 - C1
84 / 979 / 75
90 / 976 / 83 - C2
96 / 980 / 79
102 / 980 / 76
108 / 981 / 73
114 / 984 / 71
120 / 992 / 58
126 / 996 / 56

Blend
PEAK: 972 mb @ 96 hrs | 94 kt @ 102 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1006 / 30
06 / 1007 / 35 - TD
12 / 1005 / 33
18 / 1008 / 37 - TS
24 / 1003 / 37
30 / 1003 / 44
36 / 1001 / 46
42 / 1000 / 52
48 / 996 / 58
54 / 996 / 55
60 / 991 / 61
66 / 989 / 67 - C1
72 / 985 / 72
78 / 983 / 80
84 / 976 / 85 - C2
90 / 973 / 93
96 / 972 / 92
102 / 972 / 94
108 / 974 / 92
114 / 978 / 85
120 / 980 / 84
126 / 970 / 78

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Big jump in intensity from all models this morning. C1/2 in the eastern Caribbean Sea would be something to see!

[BobHarlem]

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs coming in a lot stronger so far, not good for the islands. 968mb in the next frame after this and scratching at cat 3 by the time it gets to the islands.

[kevin]

12z GFS has the look of a scary hurricane upon entering the Caribbean, 965 mb at +82 hours followed by weakening to 974 mb at +96 hours.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs weakens it clips the Tiburon peninsula of haiti and heads up toward Cuba and falls apart. That 20% area east of it lights up though here, and almost makes it to hurricane strength before the islands.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS really bombs this out within the next 72ish hours.

[jlauderdal]

GFS really bombs this out within the next 72ish hours.

Yes and thus the lean to the right on the track.

[Stratton23]

CMC big shift north, sees a more pronounced weakness in the ridge, system moving WNW towards extreme north mexico or south texas

[floridasun]

CMC big shift north, sees a more pronounced weakness in the ridge, system moving WNW towards extreme north mexico or south texas

their talk wont go into gulf move central America and Mexico not Texas

[NDG]

12z CMC looks good to me as a consensus between the 12z GFS and 0z Euro.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro coming in weaker than the 0z, stays Tropical Storm through the islands (vastly different than the 12zGFS which is pushing cat 3), a little north of the 0z spot though.