ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1822706493290070428

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2024081118, , BEST, 0, 134N, 470W, 25, 1010, DB

[ouragans]

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches will
likely be required for portions of the area as soon as this
afternoon. The system could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

This should support PTC at 21z, but nothing official

[Category5Kaiju]

Even if this storm goes out to sea, I'm still going to root for it to generate as much ACE as possible harmlessly so that 2024 can gain even more bragging rights

[TomballEd]

Most of the modeling now suggests either a glancing blow for Puerto Rico or a complete miss. Obviously too soon to be certain of it, but it is looking better.

Bermuda would be up next. The one thing in their favor is obviously strong buiding codes, there have been more than a few direct strikes in the last two decades (Cat 3 Nicole made direct landfall, there were no fatalities), but none has been devastating. I suspect Canada is safe as well, but is beyond a week and it is foolish to declare the all clear at this point.

Recon flies tomorrow, models with better initiation of 98L will give a better answer to all situations, Caribbean, Bermuda and Canada.

[lilbump3000]

(August 11) Advisories will be initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five later this afternoon, as watches and warnings will be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/xq70/923/HjDozW.jpg [/url]

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/706/bAQ0kJ.gif [/url]

The NHC will not be issuing advisories as far as I can tell. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Please be clear if you are indicating your own advisories vs an official source. Thanks.

I can't confirm whether or not the NHC will start PTC advisories this afternoon, but the system may be producing TS wind in the islands within 48 hours, necessitating a TS watch. Development chances high. That meets there criteria for initiating PTC advisories. I'm close to 100% sure they'll start advisories this afternoon.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111714
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches will
likely be required for portions of the area as soon as this
afternoon. The system could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or two while the system approaches and then moves near or
over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should
continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches will
likely be required for portions of the area as soon as this
afternoon. The system could approach portions of the Greater
Antilles by the middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

This should support PTC at 21z, but nothing official

You would be correct.
 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1822728245495959922

[ouragans]

It's official

 https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1822728245495959922

[weeniepatrol]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

lots of ACE coming

[abajan]

Dr. Levi Cowan published a video this afternoon on the system:
https://youtu.be/EOTSIFFotN8

[weeniepatrol]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an
environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next
day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the
disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given
the current organizational state of the convection and low-level
wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before
it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system
reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly
conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system
is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to
strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely
continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast
to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the
western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the
intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the
consensus aids beyond a couple of days.

emphasis mine

[USVIKimmie]

Dr. Levi Cowan published a video this afternoon on the system:
https://youtu.be/EOTSIFFotN8

As always he does a great job explaining scenarios. Hopefully wxman57 pops in for his take soon

Betting VI & PR will be on the list at 11pm tonight or 5am tomorrow

[Cachondo23]

Dr. Levi Cowan published a video this afternoon on the system:
https://youtu.be/EOTSIFFotN8

As always he does a great job explaining scenarios. Hopefully wxman57 pops in for his take soon

Betting VI & PR will be on the list at 11pm tonight or 5am tomorrow

They always say if a storm passes near or over Guadeloupe the PR area could get hit as well. I still think that this system could go through the area from Eastern PR to Tortola in BVI. We shall see as we get more information.

[aspen]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

lots of ACE coming

Probably a solid 25-30 ACE system.

[TallyTracker]

That’s an extremely aggressive first forecast! The NHC rarely forecasts a major hurricane on the first advisory as a TD much less an undeveloped low/tropical wave!

[Nimbus]

Virgin Islands and especially Bermuda are being threatened with the official track.
Eastern Puerto Rico appears to be on the weak side of the storm track currently, since the center has been gaining latitude the last day or so.
Wouldn't take much strengthening of the ridge to change that the tutt that will eventually be providing an outflow channel source should steer the storm NW a little first.

[msbee]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

lots of ACE coming

So I am at 18.1, 63.1 and under a tropical storm watch.
Question is do I board up or not.

[msbee]

Tropical weather update from St Maarten met office
https://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml

[weeniepatrol]

That’s an extremely aggressive first forecast! The NHC rarely forecasts a major hurricane on the first advisory as a TD much less an undeveloped low/tropical wave!

ESPECIALLY considering they don't even forecast actual genesis to occur until 36-h.

Probably a solid 25-30 ACE system.

Verbatim, that would carry us to 65-70 units. Keep in mind, this is ALL BEFORE the 20 August bellringing!!!! hyperactivity is close to locked in at this point. We'd only need 90 more units, before peak season has even STARTED

[weeniepatrol]

So I am at 18.1, 63.1 and under a tropical storm watch.
Question is do I board up or not.

The forecast is for a strengthening TS to cross your area. I'm not sure what your usual protocol is, but it's not supposed to become a powerful hurricane until well after it clears your area. Better safe than sorry if you're unsure.