EPAC: JOHN - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

A bit upsetting to see that seemingly nothing has been learned since Otis. No idea why recon wasn't scheduled for until tomorrow afternoon, especially now that it's a coin flip's chance whether this is even still offshore by then.

Part of it is resources - it is a long trip from Keesler AFB to southern Mexico. However, the lack of any real good data in the EPAC is definitely problematic, since we have almost no upper-air data there. It's all guessing by satellite imagery and we don't have the best analysis of shear and other environmental conditions.

[underthwx]

Did John originate from the same CAG that is giving us PTC 9/soon-to-be Helene? I recall some model runs of the CAG were depicting a bundle of low-level vorticity on the EPAC side, but stopped paying attention when the runs began to come in stronger for the Atlantic system because it's usually an either/or situation. This is the first instance in my memory where a CAG has been modeled to induce tropical cyclogenesis on both sides of Central America, and it's actually come to fruition.

Great question!....I wondered to myself tha same thought.....also I wonder what role John plays in the weather at work over 97L....what influences....if any...are 97L feeling from the EPAC cyclone?...

[underthwx]

A bit upsetting to see that seemingly nothing has been learned since Otis. No idea why recon wasn't scheduled for until tomorrow afternoon, especially now that it's a coin flip's chance whether this is even still offshore by then.

Part of it is resources - it is a long trip from Keesler AFB to southern Mexico. However, the lack of any real good data in the EPAC is definitely problematic, since we have almost no upper-air data there. It's all guessing by satellite imagery and we don't have the best analysis of shear and other environmental conditions.

My question evolves from your great quote Crazyc....I did not know there is no recon investigating Hurricane John....do you feel having recon inside Hurricane John....gathering data....would benefit forecasters working invest 97L?.....if so....what would the benefits be?.....maybe a better handle on intensity?.....track?.....I have been watching both of these events....and their proximity to each other....has me curious.

[Astromanía]

This EPAC area really scares me

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
600 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024

...EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 98.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

[ScottNAtlanta]

So, anyone think John's remnants get pulled into the GOM to redevelop later?

[Travorum]

So, anyone think John's remnants get pulled into the GOM to redevelop later?

Personally I doubt it. John is forecast to be moving NNW on landfall, and once inland would have to cross two mountain ranges with some mountains higher than 10,000ft. Its possible that some moisture makes it across but I have to imagine the circulation would be completely shredded.

[cycloneye]

Northern eyewall already on the coast.

[Kingarabian]

SAB came in with 4.5. ADT is trash right now not detecting the eye for some reason. So I'm assuming the NHC will go with a cat.2 for the next advisory.

MW supports a major hurricane:

[cycloneye]

What about cat 3?

EP, 10, 2024092400, , BEST, 0, 159N, 986W, 100, 962, HU

[Kingarabian]

What about cat 3?

EP, 10, 2024092400, , BEST, 0, 159N, 986W, 100, 962, HU

There we go.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yup, looks like John's a Category 3 now....

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro keeps John around for another 4 days.

[Kingarabian]

Even though the eye is still not positive in temp, this is a 6.0.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z Euro keeps John around for another 4 days.

https://i.postimg.cc/52NCmf3g/ecmwf-z850-vort-epac-fh0-99.gif

If that run verifies, boy is it going to be a huge flooding problem....

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd go with 110 knots. Holy cow.

[zeehag]

so no fly thru for C3 off mexico. same as what happened to downgrade patricia to a 4 on landfall when we under it felt that as an intensifying c5. we realize epac is an afterthought but some learning on part of nhc would not hurt nhc nor others who can learn from these wonderful lil monsters.
john is already so close to land that it is moot to fly thru it tomorrow.
i hope all under this one are prepped and ready.

[Hurricane2022]

Hurricane John, a Major Hurricane that lived only 2 days, Sept 22 - 24 (The forecast shows it dissipating today afternoon over MX). Hurricane Otis, a Category 5 Hurricane that lasted only 3 days, Oct 22 - 25. These EPAC shorties are very different from the NATL shorties.

[Kingarabian]

NHC could go cat.4 here but doubt they will. This frame looks like a instantaneous T6.5. WMG or OW eye? Embedded in W. 6.0 + eye adjustment of .05?

wi

[Kingarabian]

Big wobble NW is buying this more time over water. Compared to the NHC's forecast.