ATL: OSCAR - Remnants - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/WsOyToy.gif

i am sorry but giving this a 10% is disrespectful to the science of tropical cyclone meteorology. Makes me sad.

Believe it not, this is still very much an open trough.

Not anymore

[Sciencerocks]

[TallyTracker]

I don’t think this has ever quite reached the point of becoming a TC. It’s gotten close. Early on near the Cabo Verde Islands, it had persistent convection, but lacked a well-defined center. More recently it has had a better defined center, but inconsistent convection. The circulation on ASCAT yesterday still looked quite elongated and not classifiable in my opinion. Today it’s look better if the convection holds and the center tightens up a bit more. It’s close to TD status but not quite there.

[underthwx]

I don’t think this has ever quite reached the point of becoming a TC. It’s gotten close. Early on near the Cabo Verde Islands, it had persistent convection, but lacked a well-defined center. More recently it has had a better defined center, but inconsistent convection. The circulation on ASCAT yesterday still looked quite elongated and not classifiable in my opinion. Today it’s look better if the convection holds and the center tightens up a bit more. It’s close to TD status but not quite there.

Agree...94L looking healthier for now....will the NHC nudge the percentages up today?...

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/p1g5Sn8.gif

That almost looks like two systems rather than 1....if I didn't know better by looking at this loop...

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/p1g5Sn8.gif

That almost looks like two systems rather than 1....if I didn't know better by looking at this loop...

It sure does, I'd be interested in what they call it. I wonder what would happen if it catches up to 94L.

[tulum07]

94L would absorb it,

[TallyTracker]

I don’t think this has ever quite reached the point of becoming a TC. It’s gotten close. Early on near the Cabo Verde Islands, it had persistent convection, but lacked a well-defined center. More recently it has had a better defined center, but inconsistent convection. The circulation on ASCAT yesterday still looked quite elongated and not classifiable in my opinion. Today it’s look better if the convection holds and the center tightens up a bit more. It’s close to TD status but not quite there.

Agree...94L looking healthier for now....will the NHC nudge the percentages up today?...

I honestly like the 30%/60% odds with the inconsistency of the models and only moderately favorable environment. I think if it does develop it’s gonna be when it’s near the Lesser Antilles or a quick spin up before hitting Hispaniola or Cuba. Those are hard for the models to predict since land interaction can completely kill the model run before it’s even in position.

[ChrisH-UK]

94l looks to be in a bit of a mess, there is a lower level circulation in between the two points of convection, what convection there is. Also there is some more lower level rotations to the east of it, they lower one been associated with another wave.

Source - https://col.st/Hq2cY

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/WsOyToy.gif

i am sorry but giving this a 10% is disrespectful to the science of tropical cyclone meteorology. Makes me sad.

Believe it not, this is still very much an open trough.

Not anymore

Correct, now it's a naked swirl in-between two close areas of sporadic convection.

[chaser1]

94l looks to be in a bit of a mess, there is a lower level circulation in between the two points of convection, what convection there is. Also there is some more lower level rotations to the east of it, they lower one been associated with another wave.

Source - https://col.st/Hq2cY

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6164/zHGrex.gif [/url]

Nice catch! I had not noticed those two other vortices east of 94L until you posted that. They both lie at about 36W with the "northern" spin at about the same latitude as 94L. The other "southern" spin lies around 13N. I believe these two are part of the same north/south TW axis that extends north from the ITCZ which appears to be feeding inflow toward the southernmost vorticity. If not for the dry conditions throughout much of the Eastern Atlantic, it would appear that we would conceivably have two tropical cyclones on our hands right now.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for gradual development by the middle
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[USTropics]

94l looks to be in a bit of a mess, there is a lower level circulation in between the two points of convection, what convection there is. Also there is some more lower level rotations to the east of it, they lower one been associated with another wave.

Source - https://col.st/Hq2cY

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/6164/zHGrex.gif

Nice catch! I had not noticed those two other vorticities east of 94L until you posted that. They both lie at about 36W with the "northern" spin at about the same latitude as 94L. The other "southern" spin lies around 13N. I believe these two are part of the same north/south TW axis that extends north from the ITCZ which appears to be feeding inflow toward the southernmost vorticity. If not for the dry conditions throughout much of the Eastern Atlantic, it would appear that we would conceivably have two tropical cyclones on our hands right now.

There is only one wave axis here, but it is embedded within the ITCZ/monsoonal flow. Here is my analysis of the current setup. African easterly waves can essentially be analyzed as an inverted trough, which is what we have here (streamlines in magenta/pink). I've also highlighted the position of the ITCZ in red, and we have multiple low-level vorts associated with this (circled in orange) to the east. I've also highlighted the wave axis in green. The reason for our 'blob' of convection earlier behind the low-level vorticity that is displaced to the west of the wave axis is due to convergence (teal) associated with the wave axis trough. Maximum convergence typically occurs at the surface to the east (divergence typically occurs out ahead of the wave axis):

[HurricaneEnzo]

Not uncommon to have the 2 separate blobs associated with 1 AOI. We saw a similar thing with Isaias in 2020. It had 2 blobs for quite a while before it was able to consolidate.

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system approaches or moves near the
Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward,
and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[wxman57]

Not much future for this wave. Looks like it could have been classified as a depression for the past 2-3 days, but it will be moving into a less favorable environment once it passes north of the DR this weekend. Hopefully, there will be no more storms this season (and I'll win the office contest).

[MarioProtVI]

Not much future for this wave. Looks like it could have been classified as a depression for the past 2-3 days, but it will be moving into a less favorable environment once it passes north of the DR this weekend. Hopefully, there will be no more storms this season (and I'll win the office contest).

Yea I don't think anyone on this forum wants to watch/follow any more storms anyway the rest of the season. You can tell by how the posts died off after the Helene and Milton monsters. We are all burned out due to dopamine overload. So everyone got their dopamine fix. Let's bring on next season

I would also agree, it's going to be increasingly harder to get tropical systems to landfall in CONUS. My soft rule is when the first significant cold front pushes all the way into the GOM (like today), it's time to start focusing on winter weather and mid-latitude systems

I wouldn't discount some activity in the Caribbean and threats to Central America, but with La Nina lagging in development and forecasted to be a weak event, I have hesitation that we will get more than 1 or 2 systems in either the Caribbean or subtropical recurves.

The MJO is supposed to be favorable at the end of the month and into the first part of November. I thinks it’s still likely we have at least 2-3 more storms left.

[cycloneye]

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated
with a disturbance over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less
defined since yesterday. The trough of low pressure continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Nimbus]

Burst of convection near 16.9N -52.5W tonight.
These weak systems can spin up near the islands in the last minute and produce some pretty strong local winds over the islands close to the track. Models aren't doing much with it yet though.