ATL: RAFAEL - Models

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z Euro ensemble shows many strong members meandering over the GOM. There is a big spread, and the intensity of these members seems to be increasing

[TallyTracker]

12Z Euro ensemble shows many strong members meandering over the GOM. There is a big spread, and the intensity of these members seems to be increasing

I’ve been thinking that if Rafael stays south of 25 N, warmer waters and less shear might allow the storm to maintain strength much longer as it gets pushed west.

[wxman57]

As I expected, the 00Z consensus (TVCN = green, TVCC = orange) shifted well south and west. NHC track (maroon) is way east now. I had already shifted the track close to those consensus tracks. Rafael may maintain its strength longer, but once it moves north of 26N it'll fade very quickly. Look for NHC to make a track shift this evening. If you can't view images on my server here, try pasting the URL into a different browser.

https://wxman57.com/images/00ZWedConsensus.JPG

[kevin]

00z, Nov 6, hurricane model blend

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 965kt/99kt
HMON = 960mb/114kt
HAFS-A= 949mb/124kt
HAFS-B = 952mb/115kt

--- Hurricane model blend ---

A blend of the hurricane models calls for a category 3 peak within the next 12 - 15 hours before the Cuba landfall. However, the models are not all similar in terms of intensity with model outputs varying from a low-end cat 2 to a low-end cat 4. According to the models is expected that current recon flight will find an intensity near 85 - 90 kt. Interestingly, the models indicate improved conditions for Rafael after landfall with all models now showing a significant secondary peak similar in strength or even stronger than this initial peak. At some point shear will rapidly increase and dry air will enter Rafael, ripping the system to shreds. The models disagree exactly when this happens. Both HWRF and HMON have it happening at +60/+66 hrs, while HAFS-A and HAFS-B show much more conductive conditions and only show this deterioration somewhere around +84hr to +102 hr. This is the reason that the weakening of Rafael in the blend is slower than one might expect. However, when weakening does occur, expect degradation from a (near-)MH to a TS within only 6 - 12 hours. At the start of this rapid weakening phase models indicate that Rafael might still have very high wind speeds despite a horrific IR presentation. So at some point in the coming days expect a weird-looking weak system which still has high wind speeds.

Blend
PEAK: 959 mb @ 18 hrs | 104 kt @ 12 hrs
ACE (0 - 126 hrs) = 15.2
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 983 / 76
06 / 971 / 91 - C2
12 / 963 / 104 - C3
18 / 959 / 102
24 / 968 / 85 post-landfall
30 / 969 / 90
36 / 965 / 98
42 / 965 / 92
48 / 962 / 96
54 / 961 / 103 - C3
60 / 967 / 104
66 / 972 / 93
72 / 977 / 76
78 / 980 / 77
84 / 982 / 72
90 / 986 / 66
96 / 988 / 61
102 / 993 / 50
108 / 999 / 45
114 / 1000 / 41
120 / 1001 / 35
126 / 997 / 48

--- All blend analyses ---

00z, Nov 6 = 959 mb / 104 kt (15.2 ACE)
00z, Nov 4 = 961 mb / 108 kt (10.6 ACE)

[aspen]

Hurricane models are trending towards Rafael turning into the SW Gulf and possibly having a second C2-3 peak there. The spread between the globals and hurricane models is gigantic.

[tolakram]

It seems to me that for the center to make that hard left means it's decapitated, yet conveniently enough the hurricane models keep it moving left with the shear in the perfect position to vent the storm. Could happen, seems suspect?

[tolakram]

[WeatherBoy2000]

It seems to me that for the center to make that hard left means it's decapitated, yet conveniently enough the hurricane models keep it moving left with the shear in the perfect position to vent the storm. Could happen, seems suspect?

There have been eps ensemble runs hinting at this possibility.

[WaveBreaking]

There’s a near-180° spread in the models for Rafael’s track. Wonder what the hurricane models see that the globals don’t.

[xironman]

Interestingly the hurricane models are not losing the moisture envelope today

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z Euro ensemble continues to show a lot of strong hurricane members as they generally track W then WSW into the Bay of Campeche, so Rafael may be with us for a while

[aspen]

All the 6z hurricane models show Rafael getting obliterated by shear, with no solutions of recovery in the SW Gulf like on previous model cycles.

[ronjon]

Interesting that GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and EuroAI now want Rafael to be picked up by a trough and send a weakened system north just off SELA and then drifting it east in the northern GOM back to Florida. It's just a shell of its former self by then but Rafael may be around for a while.

[longhorn2004]

All the 6z hurricane models show Rafael getting obliterated by shear, with no solutions of recovery in the SW Gulf like on previous model cycles.

And we state shear, you mean high level winds?

[underthwx]

As I expected, the 00Z consensus (TVCN = green, TVCC = orange) shifted well south and west. NHC track (maroon) is way east now. I had already shifted the track close to those consensus tracks. Rafael may maintain its strength longer, but once it moves north of 26N it'll fade very quickly. Look for NHC to make a track shift this evening. If you can't view images on my server here, try pasting the URL into a different browser.

https://wxman57.com/images/00ZWedConsensus.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/00ZWedConsensus.JPG

https://i.imgur.com/up16xwR.png

Thats epic Xman! Not the easiest cyclone to depict on the tracking maps. Worthy of a few excedrin im sure! But you have Rafaels number for sure with your predictions. You are an epic weather forecaster, 2K is fortunate to count you among the ranks of its professional meteorologists. I asked a question yesterday, regarding Rafaels track, more specifically, if there was any possibility of Rafael eventually tracking back north and eastward, in any form of development? But as I have been reading, there soon will not be much left of Rafael.