ATL: SARA - Remnants - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1856559820649759091

Massive amount of energy being moved around next week...deep trough, deep low that phases in time and runs up towards the 40/70 bench.

[underthwx]

From NWS Tampa:

"Will have to closely
monitor a tropical disturbance, currently over the central
Caribbean, which could potentially move from the western Caribbean
to the Gulf of Mexico sometime around next Tuesday."

Oh joy. This is neverending. We shall see what recon discovers later today.

[xironman]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1856559820649759091

Massive amount of energy being moved around next week...deep trough, deep low that phases in time and runs up towards the 40/70 bench.

Watch the tilt of the trough, if it goes negative you get a Sandy situation.

[Flwxguy86]

I know this looks like a South Florida storm, but I think you can see a scenario where it's a little farther north and kinda does what Milton did by going sub-tropical very close to if not upon landfall. It's been a weird season though so I am not ready to write anything off quite yet. All that is certain is we are likely to have Tropical Storm Sara probably sooner than Saturday in my opinion.

[WaveBreaking]

[AutoPenalti]

Convection has waned slightly, the longer it takes to get going, the lower ceiling it has.

[TomballEd]

New strong convection just W of where satellite imagery suggests the low to mid level circulation is. May be what 99L needs to become a TD and eventually Sara.

Speaking of trough captures and late season storms that develop in the Caribbean, I think 'Sara' replaced 'Sandy'.

[cycloneye]

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/XiSdP0l.gif

Kaboom!. Looks like convection action picking up.

[underthwx]

From 3:10 am NWS Jacksonville:

"Over the northwest Caribbean, we are once again now monitoring
a possible tropical cyclone per GFS and ECMWF guidance on Monday
and Tuesday. Still large variability in any track, but general
consensus next week is a north and then northeast track, ahead of
a large upper level trough that will be across the MS valley by
Tuesday."

[Sanibel]

Weird season...November GOM threats...

Will land interaction and late season cold save Florida?...

Reminds me of Michelle 2001...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

At the moment not looking that way, some models north of me, a few barely south of me, so not liking this at all.

[WaveBreaking]

Current State of the Union (Caribbean):

[kevin]

Current State of the Union (Caribbean):

https://i.imgur.com/32Ru7hR.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/EtPNCaX.gif

I agree. Your overview has 99L's center currently around 16.2N, 77.2W. Meanwhile, the NHC placed it at 16.1N, 77.6W and it has been moving W ever since. If 99L's center is indeed further east than perhaps it could also have an effect since the models are initializing it at the wrong location and a CA landfall might be a matter of 10 - 100 km. I guess the only way to know for sure is today's recon.

[tropicwatch]

Recon was scheduled to take off about an hour ago but cannot find any indication that it has left Keesler.

[Travorum]

Recon was scheduled to take off about an hour ago but cannot find any indication that it has left Keesler.

Yep it doesn't look like AF recon has taken off yet but NOAA42 is taxiing right now, they might have taken over this flight? It would still be on pace to get to 99L at 19z as planned.

[AJC3]

Current State of the Union (Caribbean):

https://i.imgur.com/32Ru7hR.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/EtPNCaX.gif

Pretty solid analysis. The only thing I'd take issue with is the reason you cited for displacement of the convection. Note the different motions of the CI blowoff over the SW-most Caribbean Sea...


as well as the CIMSS upper divergence analysis...


Its in an area of very strong upper divergence/difluence, which is main reason for it being along the wave's southern flank. The CIMSS upper level shear analysis also supports this - shear is virtually negligible as the area in under the center of an upper level anticyclone...

[Mouton]

In an excellent environment for development over the next few days. Appears to be doing that. When, the launch point is reached, it could be a peninsula storm. Fortunately, if it ambles north of Tampa, the GOM in close temps are 24-25c which should tamp down its power. That an increased shear should diminish it before LF.

Climatically, this should go south of Florida but this year, who knows. All eyes on the cold front approaching after this weekend. With any luck, it pushes far south and sends this on its way to OTS and nowhereville. However, without a starting point fix established, and knowing the exact orientation of the front, too early to make a firmer prediction.

[Zonacane]

Was talking with Andrew Hagen at the NHC this morning. He has worked with the HRD doing research on past storms. He said no Cat 3 has ever struck Florida in November in all records since 1851. I checked, and only Kate (1985) and a storm in 1932 struck FL in November as Cat 2s. Nicole in 2020 struck as a Cat 1 from the east. It's hard to hit Florida in November. Hopefully, it moves inland into CA or tracks NE across Cuba and the Bahamas.

Uh oh

[Travorum]

Yep it doesn't look like AF recon has taken off yet but NOAA42 is taxiing right now, they might have taken over this flight? It would still be on pace to get to 99L at 19z as planned.

nvm NOAA42 is actually just a training flight, not sure if the low level invest flight scheduled to depart 2 hours ago is just delayed or cancelled. The next flight after that is scheduled to be on station early tomorrow morning (6:30est I think) which may be the first recon 99L gets.