ATL: SARA - Models

[chris_fit]

12z GFS caving to ICON so far? Much further W and S and weaker than previous run - so far.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS going with the Mitch option, albeit much weaker, and dive bombing into Central America.

[chris_fit]

Massive change (for the better) on the 12z GFS

[blp]

Yeah the Icon and CMC have been leading the way this year IMO and have been showing more entanglement and the GFS is moving toward that on the 12z. This is good news for Florida hopefully it continues to the Euro.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS says maybe Father climo coming home to roost?

[AutoPenalti]

GFS ever so slightly trending towards CA landfall and weakening, it was one of the possibilities since the beginning.

[TampaWxLurker]

The new GFS scenario of the remnants post-Yucatan getting absorbed into the big cold front makes much more climo sense than a Cat 3 Hurricane hitting Florida in late November.
Let's hope it's correct.

[hiflyer]

So it is 1135est and ICON and GFS have the storm weakening to a disturbance after going ashore Yucatan. I am suspicous on just this last run of the gfs especially since prior had it going theu the Keys…and ones before anywhere from Naples to above Tampa.

[ronjon]

Encouraging outcome but It's only one run on the GFS. Let's see where the ensembles and Euro go next.

[psyclone]

The defensive players are taking to the field.

[AutoPenalti]

GEFS still keeps majority of the members offshore.

[toad strangler]

The 12z Euro never gets 99L cranking much before sending it into the Yucatan. Then pops out on the western most side of the northern peninsula where it is pulled NE through Florida a just N of Tampa and out at Daytona Beach. Could be a CAt 1 or so at FL landfall.

[ConvergenceZone]

Feeling MUCH MUCH better today with the latest models. Yesterday was downright scary. What's happening today is what's expected with a developing system this late in the year.

[toad strangler]

12z EPS is extremely active with a plethora of weakish AND strong members. Almost all of them crossing the Yucatan and then turning NE landfalling the majority from the Big Bend of FL down to Sarasota.

[chaser1]

So it is 1135est and ICON and GFS have the storm weakening to a disturbance after going ashore Yucatan. I am suspicous on just this last run of the gfs especially since prior had it going theu the Keys…and ones before anywhere from Naples to above Tampa.

That just further leads me to be that much more wary of the GFS modeling. Kudos to it for consistently forecasting genesis however it has lately struggled with nearer term steering & possibly timing. The very fact that it's cycle to cycle changes ranging from the Keys, to Central West Florida coast, to Central America leads me to think that it is having some difficulties initially sniffing out atmospheric subtleties apt to impact steering (and intensity where land interaction is the result).

[SFLcane]

12z EPS is extremely active with a plethora of weakish AND strong members. Almost all of them crossing the Yucatan and then turning NE landfalling the majority from the Big Bend of FL down to Sarasota.

Threat to the conus is greatly reduced now infact 18z intensity guidance mostly keep it below hurricane intensity. Not overly concern at all but could dump lots of rain over CA.

[MetroMike]

12z EPS is extremely active with a plethora of weakish AND strong members. Almost all of them crossing the Yucatan and then turning NE landfalling the majority from the Big Bend of FL down to Sarasota.

Threat to the conus is greatly reduced now infact 18z intensity guidance mostly keep it below hurricane intensity. Not overly concern at all but could dump lots of rain over CA.

Keep in mind we are still 1 week out and models and ensembles flip all the time. Tomorrow most could show less time over land and a stronger solution.

[SFLcane]

12z EPS is extremely active with a plethora of weakish AND strong members. Almost all of them crossing the Yucatan and then turning NE landfalling the majority from the Big Bend of FL down to Sarasota.

Threat to the conus is greatly reduced now infact 18z intensity guidance mostly keep it below hurricane intensity. Not overly concern at all but could dump lots of rain over CA.

Keep in mind we are still 1 week out and models and ensembles flip all the time. Tomorrow most could show less time over land and a stronger solution.

Ridge has trended stronger today hence the models going into CA now.

[Jxdama]

hard to bet against climo this time of year, definitely good news for florida as gfs has caved to the euro/cmc. blocking high just too strong

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS


12z ECENS

Quite a spread, I suspect the end result will be something in between IMO...