ATL: BERYL - Models

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TomballEd
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#841 Postby TomballEd » Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:55 pm

Other than being available before the other globals, the ICON really doesn't have much to recommend it as a global model. The GFS is not a bad model in the tropics, it really has been upgraded and improved since it was only King Euro, even the Canadian upgrades seem to have helped that model a lot in the tropics. GFS is imminent, changes from 12Z and 18Z on that should be more informative.
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BobHarlem
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#842 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:58 pm

0z gfs south padre island
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#843 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:58 pm

Ope, gfs with a Texas landfall this time
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ROCK
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#844 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:02 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Ope, gfs with a Texas landfall this time



it also rides the coast inland but not by much...
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#845 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:03 pm

Coast rider/major flooding
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Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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ROCK
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#846 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:03 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:Ope, gfs with a Texas landfall this time



it also rides the coast inland but not by much...
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#847 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:03 pm

2nd landfall in corpus as a hurricane
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#848 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:04 pm

ICON not looking so crazy now…
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#849 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:04 pm

I can see why the cone has shifted up the coast this evening.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#850 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:09 pm

Canadian keeps this broad and weak. It even initializes as a tropical storm. Thus the end result is south of the border. Even still, it did budge north this run.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#851 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:09 pm

So now the big questions are what is causing the shift and
will the shifts continue?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#852 Postby Stratton23 » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:10 pm

MisssissippiWx that CMC run is immediately discredited from the beginning, one of the worst initiations yet
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#853 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:13 pm

Stratton23 wrote:MisssissippiWx that CMC run is immediately discredited from the beginning, one of the worst initiations yet



yeah I even think it was initialized to far south to begin with.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#854 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:22 pm

0Z JMA only runs out 72hrs on 0Z runs but hasn't changed much from the 12Z run. 12Z runs go out past 84hrs.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#855 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:23 pm

Stormcenter wrote:So now the big questions are what is causing the shift and
will the shifts continue?


Simple. The shift is a result of constantly going north of forecast tracks and a stronger storm. I still don’t think the models have caught up. We have a major hurricane being initialized as a tropical storm by some of these models. Yes, globals are not intended to high resolution enough to see exact pressures of tropical systems, but this is extreme.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#856 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:31 pm

0Z UKMET is ~40 miles N of the 12Z run, which places it ~40-50 miles S of the TX border
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#857 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 04, 2024 11:46 pm

0Z HMON coming in. Initializes right on…see what it does..
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#858 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:30 am

00z Euro has completely caved, now goes in just north of south padre island fwiw
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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#859 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Jul 05, 2024 12:45 am

Link please

Stratton23 wrote:00z Euro has completely caved, now goes in just north of south padre island fwiw
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kassi
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models

#860 Postby kassi » Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:06 am

HMON a little north of 18z

HWRF a tad north of 18z
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