ATL: BERYL - Models

[South Texas Storms]

I'm afraid the ICON may score a big win with this one. Hopefully it's not fully correct as that would be very bad news for Houston and the drought stricken Hill Country. Consensus is still closer to South Padre but I feel the northward shifts may not be done yet...

[DukeMu]

Beryl will be a direct hit on Cozumel. HAFS-A and HAFS-B both moved north. Beryl is going to be a rainmaker for southern and parts of SETX as the remnants mosey north inland. Looks like a landfall near South Padre. I hope she tosses around a few of those hungry sharks.

[DukeMu]

Coast rider/major flooding
https://i.imgur.com/Fzx6uGg.png

Going surfing as Beryl curves up the coast.

[DukeMu]

0Z HMON coming in. Initializes right on…see what it does..

Corpus.

[Sambucol2024]

I'm afraid the ICON may score a big win with this one. Hopefully it's not fully correct as that would be very bad news for Houston and the drought stricken Hill Country. Consensus is still closer to South Padre but I feel the northward shifts may not be done yet...

We are in the Houston area near Baytown. How would it be bad for Houston? We are trying to determine if we need to prepare or not.

[Cpv17]

I'm afraid the ICON may score a big win with this one. Hopefully it's not fully correct as that would be very bad news for Houston and the drought stricken Hill Country. Consensus is still closer to South Padre but I feel the northward shifts may not be done yet...

We are in the Houston area near Baytown. How would it be bad for Houston? We are trying to determine if we need to prepare or not.

Lots of rain and maybe some tornadoes for SE TX. Wind and surge is still TBD.

[ColdMiser123]

NHC cone will have to shift to the right at 5 am.

[3090]

NHC cone will have to shift to the right at 5 am.

https://i.imgur.com/7defyaX.png

What gives on that?

[ColdMiser123]

NHC cone will have to shift to the right at 5 am.

https://i.imgur.com/7defyaX.png

What gives on that?

They like using consensus tools such as TVCN to help build their track (gray line). TVCN is now a good amount northeast of OFCI, which is a clue that NHC will adjust rightward in an hour.

[ColdMiser123]

The EPS mean is now over Corpus, with members now as far east as Houston.

[3090]

The EPS mean is now over Corpus, with members now as far east as Houston.

https://i.imgur.com/aAW7BK6.png

Geez…I am surprised some but not totally as the trend has been going this way now for about the last 3 days ever so slightly post YP landfall crossing.

[REDHurricane]

NHC cone will have to shift to the right at 5 am.

https://i.imgur.com/7defyaX.png

That's a pretty significant rightward shift, no? I'm not quite sure why everyone here seems to be so confident that the models have nailed down landfall to be somewhere from Brownsville to Corpus Christi when Beryl is still running around .5 degrees north of forecast and the angle of approach to the coastline is so acute. If I were near Houston/Galveston I would at the very least start preparing for a direct hit just as a worst-case scenario

[Clearcloudz]

EURO Ensembles



A slow down is occurring once it gets closer to landfall. I've noticed a lot of people are not talking about this as track is still being fine tuned.

[Clearcloudz]

EURO Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/aYFnBpe.png

A slow down is occurring once it gets closer to landfall. I've noticed a lot of people are not talking about this as track is still being fine tuned.

Some individual ensemble runs are showing 20 to 30 inch rainfall totals for San Antonino and Austin areas. This obviously will change but something to watch.

[kevin]

Big win for ICON if the current trend continues and we really get a west/central Texas landfall.

[3090]

EURO Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/aYFnBpe.png

A slow down is occurring once it gets closer to landfall. I've noticed a lot of people are not talking about this as track is still being fine tuned.

And Beryl even at this time is tracking to the north or is just on the most northern edge of the EURO ensembles. So we shall see.

[jlauderdal]

NHC cone will have to shift to the right at 5 am.

https://i.imgur.com/7defyaX.png

What gives on that?

They like using consensus tools such as TVCN to help build their track (gray line). TVCN is now a good amount northeast of OFCI, which is a clue that NHC will adjust rightward in an hour.

They are coming further north next package. My prediction yesterday of 60 miles on either side of the border is in jeopardy. If it comes further north it means you have a stronger storm, prepare for a major.

"the NHC forecast track has been shifted in that direction, quite
close to the consensus aid TVCN. However, it is not quite as far
north as the latest ECMWF or GFS tracks, and further adjustments in
that direction may be necessary later today."

[ColdMiser123]

EURO Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/aYFnBpe.png

A slow down is occurring once it gets closer to landfall. I've noticed a lot of people are not talking about this as track is still being fine tuned.

And Beryl even at this time is tracking to the north or is just on the most northern edge of the EURO ensembles. So we shall see.

Yeah - on Cancun radar you can see the eye is over Cozumel, which was on the northern side of the 0z EPS spread.

[Nimbus]

EURO Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/aYFnBpe.png

A slow down is occurring once it gets closer to landfall. I've noticed a lot of people are not talking about this as track is still being fine tuned.

And Beryl even at this time is tracking to the north or is just on the most northern edge of the EURO ensembles. So we shall see.

Yeah - on Cancun radar you can see the eye is over Cozumel, which was on the northern side of the 0z EPS spread.

In the short term a slow down is good since the core will spend more time over the Yucatan land mass.
Unfortunately the slower the forecast speed the more right the stronger storm track would be since the long wave is moving southeast.

I guess the good news is that Beryl will likely be a weaker tropical storm as it moves back out over water so might not feel the weakness until it is further west being sheared.

Euro ensembles still showing too much variance to be sure.

[3090]

EURO Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/aYFnBpe.png

A slow down is occurring once it gets closer to landfall. I've noticed a lot of people are not talking about this as track is still being fine tuned.

And Beryl even at this time is tracking to the north or is just on the most northern edge of the EURO ensembles. So we shall see.

Yeah - on Cancun radar you can see the eye is over Cozumel, which was on the northern side of the 0z EPS spread.

At current movement and if it holds Beryl will exit the YP off of the north-central coast line and spend less time over land.