ATL: BERYL - Models

[IcyTundra]

6Z ICON shifted further east to Freeport

[Frank P]

06z ICON

[ROCK]

Just won’t give up on that track. lol I think I found a new favorite model…

[ColdMiser123]

Both HAFS models will now show a Texas landfall for the first time.

[Tireman4]

Just won’t give up on that track. lol I think I found a new favorite model…

I am a NAVY guy, sir. Top Gun! On a serious note, if it verifies, how many times was the ICON the outlier, but hundreds of miles no less.

[jaguars_22]

This storm will go in east of Matagorda! Mark my words Houston we have a problem!!!! That takes me in Victoria out of the danger but I’m hoping for Houston it will only be a weaker storm!

[jaguars_22]

Where is wxman now saying this thing is going? We need your help!

[LSU Saint]

This storm will go in east of Matagorda! Mark my words Houston we have a problem!!!! That takes me in Victoria out of the danger but I’m hoping for Houston it will only be a weaker storm!

I’m in Houston and watching this one closely. Thankfully I installed my inlet box for my generator a couple weeks ago.

The GFS and Euro are starting to scare me

[jlauderdal]

This storm will go in east of Matagorda! Mark my words Houston we have a problem!!!! That takes me in Victoria out of the danger but I’m hoping for Houston it will only be a weaker storm!

I’m in Houston and watching this one closely. Thankfully I installed my inlet box for my generator a couple weeks ago.

The GFS and Euro are starting to scare me

Good job on box, I installed one a couple of years prior to hurricane season, glad I did it then because I ran into issues and it turned into a 3 day project.

[Tireman4]

This storm will go in east of Matagorda! Mark my words Houston we have a problem!!!! That takes me in Victoria out of the danger but I’m hoping for Houston it will only be a weaker storm!

I’m in Houston and watching this one closely. Thankfully I installed my inlet box for my generator a couple weeks ago.

The GFS and Euro are starting to scare me

And as luck would have it, my Generac does not get installed in until September 26th. Sigh

[3090]

Where is wxman now saying this thing is going? We need your help!

Bay of Campeche?

[kevin]

A new overview of 06z models (HWRF/HMON/HAFS-A/HAFS-B/GFS) including a blend. Models are way slower near the Texas coast and all except HMON show RI just before landfall. Note that all the models show Beryl staying over land for 12 - 15 hours. If this period is shorter, even by just 3 hours, it could have a significant impact on how long it will take for Beryl to reorganize. The models show landfall between 27N and 28.2N. Adding half a degree to both sides to account for uncertainty puts anywhere from the US/Mexico border to just south of Freeport in the risk area. A blend shows landfall Monday morning local time around Corpus Christi (27.5N, 97.2E) as an 80 kt category 1 hurricane.

HWRF
LANDFALL: 962mb, 86kt, 28.2N, 96.7E, 78 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 969 / 93
06 / 974 / 61
12 / 983 / 56
18 / 991 / 53
24 / 995 / 53
30 / 990 / 59
36 / 985 / 63
42 / 978 / 74 - C1
48 / 974 / 74
54 / 970 / 82
60 / 968 / 75
66 / 970 / 76
72 / 966 / 83 - C2
78 / 962 / 86
84 / 967 / 61 post-landfall

HMON
LANDFALL: 982mb, 57 kt, 28.2N, 96.6E, 75 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 970 / 100
06 / 982 / 54
12 / 998 / 42
18 / 999 / 44
24 / 1001 / 38
30 / 999 / 45
36 / 996 / 51
42 / 993 / 54
48 / 993 / 49
54 / 988 / 54
60 / 991 / 40
66 / 991 / 45
72 / 988 / 55
78 / 985 / 54 post-landfall

HAFS-A
LANDFALL: 964mb, 100 kt, 26.4N, 97.2E, 78 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 974 / 92
06 / 976 / 62
12 / 999 / 45
18 / 1001 / 46
24 / 999 / 52
30 / 1000 / 44
36 / 1000 / 52
42 / 994 / 59
48 / 993 / 49
54 / 991 / 55
60 / 990 / 52
66 / 984 / 60
72 / 976 / 77 - C1
78 / 964 / 100 - C3
84 / 969 / 87 post-landfall

HAFS-B
LANDFALL: 973mb, 83 kt, 27.0N, 97.4E, 78 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 970 / 85
06 / 982 / 64
12 / 999 / 52
18 / 1002 / 44
24 / 1001 / 48
30 / 1002 / 42
36 / 994 / 53
42 / 997 / 46
48 / 998 / 41
54 / 996 / 50
60 / 994 / 48
66 / 988 / 51
72 / 980 / 69 - C1
78 / 973 / 83 - C2
84 / 973 / 61 post-landfall

Blend
LANDFALL: 971mb, 81kt, 27.5N, 97.3E, 78 hrs
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 971 / 93
06 / 979 / 60
12 / 995 / 49
18 / 998 / 47
24 / 999 / 48
30 / 998 / 48
36 / 994 / 55
42 / 991 / 58
48 / 990 / 53
54 / 986 / 60
60 / 986 / 54
66 / 983 / 58
72 / 978 / 71 - C1
78 / 971 / 81 landfall

[DukeMu]

Where is wxman now saying this thing is going? We need your help!

Maybe wxman needs some help. Someone check on him

[jaguars_22]

Everyone disappeared when beryl made her own forecast aric?? Wxman??? love you guys! I know your busy

[tolakram]

Coming in near the same angle as the coast. Ugh. A big shift would be just 50 miles, which for a model is not big.

[Tireman4]

Everyone disappeared when beryl made her own forecast aric?? Wxman??? love you guys! I know your busy

Aric...not sure where he is..LOL...Wxman 57, his office is about 5 miles from my house and his house is about 10 miles from my office. I think he works from home a lot. I think he is super busy..LOL

[DukeMu]

Coming in near the same angle as the coast. Ugh. A big shift would be just 50 miles, which for a model is not big.

Exactly right. With the sharp angle of entry, a degree or two difference can mean miles and affects the time Beryl has over water. I expect her to hit the Texas coast as a CAT1 or CAT2.

[IcyTundra]

Consensus models shifted north. Expect NHC to shift their track north at 10 AM.

[tolakram]

Model roundup.

[kevin]

https://i.ibb.co/Fq2cmHW/02-L-tracks-latest.png

Consensus models shifted north. Expect NHC to shift their track north at 10 AM.

Note that all the most northern/eastern models in this overview are also the most eastern ones when exiting Yucatan. So the Beryl's location when it leaves land will already be quite telling regarding its final landfall.