ATL: BERYL - Models

[Steve]

Big win for ICON if the current trend continues and we really get a west/central Texas landfall.

It was mostly all alone earlier in the week. It was probably too far east, but it telegraphed the northern move regardless of whether it ends up 2 degrees farther west than what it had progged a few days ago. Globals had different solutions from moving into northern Mexico and heading west or heading into the RGV and moving W/WNW. Icon always liked that northerly component. It's rare that any models outside of the GFS or ECMWF can score that single-model coup. If it pans out, it doesn't mean trust the ICON or anything. It just means to watch its outputs and take it into consideration. Like all the models, it's frequently wrong.

[ColdMiser123]

Expect another adjustment east with the NHC cone at 11 am - TVCN is now into Yarborough.

[3090]

Expect another adjustment east with the NHC cone at 11 am - TVCN is now into Yarborough.

Where is Yarborough?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1809211501086982279

[ColdMiser123]

Expect another adjustment east with the NHC cone at 11 am - TVCN is now into Yarborough.

Where is Yarborough?

About 30 miles south of Corpus & about 50 miles north of Port Mansfield.

[Steve]

Expect another adjustment east with the NHC cone at 11 am - TVCN is now into Yarborough.

That's where the 12km NAM has it going more or less as well. Yeah, it's the NAM, but sometimes it knows South Texas (Harvey rainfall, etc.).

This graphic ends at 84 hours or 1pm Monday. You can see by the precipitation track that if it's going to be right (always dubious of course), the rainfall would mostly be east of the I-35 corridor unless it landfalls with more of a western component than what NAM is showing in the precip. The new one will run in an hour or so which will be the first clue for the 12z runs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0506&fh=84

[Tireman4]

Expect another adjustment east with the NHC cone at 11 am - TVCN is now into Yarborough.

Where is Yarborough?

South Padre Island, I think

[cheezyWXguy]

Big win for ICON if the current trend continues and we really get a west/central Texas landfall.

It was mostly all alone earlier in the week. It was probably too far east, but it telegraphed the northern move regardless of whether it ends up 2 degrees farther west than what it had progged a few days ago. Globals had different solutions from moving into northern Mexico and heading west or heading into the RGV and moving W/WNW. Icon always liked that northerly component. It's rare that any models outside of the GFS or ECMWF can score that single-model coup. If it pans out, it doesn't mean trust the ICON or anything. It just means to watch its outputs and take it into consideration. Like all the models, it's frequently wrong.

I think we should treat all models that way. I see a lot of people pick their favorite model and put all their faith in it, but that’s not how they’re intended to be used. Each one is an individual tool that is used to derive a consensus. You can’t build a house with only a power drill, even if it’s the best power drill on the market.

[tolakram]

GFS north mover as well

[Steve]

Big win for ICON if the current trend continues and we really get a west/central Texas landfall.

It was mostly all alone earlier in the week. It was probably too far east, but it telegraphed the northern move regardless of whether it ends up 2 degrees farther west than what it had progged a few days ago. Globals had different solutions from moving into northern Mexico and heading west or heading into the RGV and moving W/WNW. Icon always liked that northerly component. It's rare that any models outside of the GFS or ECMWF can score that single-model coup. If it pans out, it doesn't mean trust the ICON or anything. It just means to watch its outputs and take it into consideration. Like all the models, it's frequently wrong.

I think we should treat all models that way. I see a lot of people pick their favorite model and put all their faith in it, but that’s not how they’re intended to be used. Each one is an individual tool that is used to derive a consensus. You can’t build a house with only a power drill, even if it’s the best power drill on the market.

100.

[IcyTundra]

6Z Euro ensemble


6Z GEFS

[Tireman4]

Big win for ICON if the current trend continues and we really get a west/central Texas landfall.

It was mostly all alone earlier in the week. It was probably too far east, but it telegraphed the northern move regardless of whether it ends up 2 degrees farther west than what it had progged a few days ago. Globals had different solutions from moving into northern Mexico and heading west or heading into the RGV and moving W/WNW. Icon always liked that northerly component. It's rare that any models outside of the GFS or ECMWF can score that single-model coup. If it pans out, it doesn't mean trust the ICON or anything. It just means to watch its outputs and take it into consideration. Like all the models, it's frequently wrong.

I think we should treat all models that way. I see a lot of people pick their favorite model and put all their faith in it, but that’s not how they’re intended to be used. Each one is an individual tool that is used to derive a consensus. You can’t build a house with only a power drill, even if it’s the best power drill on the market.

Wise words and sage advice Steve. Just because the ICON might be right does not make it the best overall. Use all the models and human extraction of said models to come up with a forecast.

[Stormgodess]

6Z Euro ensemble
https://i.ibb.co/XbkGYQH/AL02-2024070506-ECENS-0-120h.png

6Z GEFS
https://i.ibb.co/F0Xdbyp/AL02-2024070506-GEFS-0-120h.png

Yet her center right now is just North of the tip of the Peninsula? Am I wrong about that?? Why doesn't a single model reflect that??

[Steve]

Here's the late cycle 06Z outputs. OFCL (official) is the farthest south and west. No chance they aren't nudging the track north and east.

[Stormlover70]

Wow. I just woke up to this. You guys stay stay across the gulf!!!

[ROCK]

Lets not forget the JMA and Nav was hinting at this more northerly track for days as well...we should give all these rarely used models some love.

BTW- interesting write up on the JMA and how is runs off some EURO parameters. Never knew that until now...

[3090]

Wow…all models now lining up SOMEWHERE along the Texas gulf coast today! 10 days ago some were saying they thought Beryl had no realistic shot of having an impact on the GOM or a U.S. landfall for that matter. What a difference 10 days makes. Crazy crazy stuff.

[Tireman4]

Lets not forget the JMA and Nav was hinting at this more northerly track for days as well...we should give all these rarely used models some love.

BTW- interesting write up on the JMA and how is runs off some EURO parameters. Never knew that until now...

God bless the Navy. I will never besmirch them again!

[Steve]

Here's the early cycle 12z runs. Looks like most of these outputs are shooting for the Corpus Christi metro or thereabouts. Remember, the early and late cycle outputs are experimental.



Here's the early cycle 12z intensity runs. Looks mostly Cat 1 or lower. This could change with more time over the coastal waters/farther north landfall scenario.

[galvbay]

Expect another adjustment east with the NHC cone at 11 am - TVCN is now into Yarborough.

Where is Yarborough?

South Padre Island, I think

Not much there. We used to surf fish there many years ago.
http://www.stxmaps.com/go/yarborough-pass.html