ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

Florida's a little wet ahead of Milton

https://i.imgur.com/6GGAisu.gif

Very much so unfortunately....which could help Milton maintain while over land?....kinda like a brown ocean effect?...

[jfk08c]

Florida's a little wet ahead of Milton

https://i.imgur.com/6GGAisu.gif

Very much so unfortunately....which could help Milton maintain while over land?....kinda like a brown ocean effect?...

With the forecasted shear, I don't think it'll do much to counteract it

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Looks like Milton is really about to put on a show.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like Milton is really about to put on a show.

I’m going to wager that pressure is below 980 now. Looks like that dry air is mixed out. Could be wrong but we’ll know soon

[Travorum]

1 hour old microwave:

[shiftenter]

I am watching with interest the developing and potentially very destructive situation with Milton. The forecast track has been fairly consistent in the hurricane passing very close to Tampa. What are the chances of this hurricane pushing a surge into Tampa bay which gets funneled into the heavily populated areas of Tampa and St Petersburg? I had the same thoughts during Ian's approach to Florida a couple of years ago when it was originally forecast to pass very near Tampa to the west but the hurricane came ashore well to the south.

The surge would be significant if Tampa were to take a direct hit at that angle. Here is anticipated surge for a category 4 hurricane (red is 9+ feet, orange is 6-9 feet, yellow is 3-6 feet):
https://i.imgur.com/h3Ja1Mm.png
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-4/

Here is another look for a category 3 hurricane at mean tide:
https://i.imgur.com/zV3mDTZ.png

Essentially, the bay is a shallow estuary, with an average depth of 11 feet. The surge would be truly historic and significant, something living residents in Tampa area have never experienced before.

Is there a tool you used to make this?

Not the OP, but you may find https://cera.coastalrisk.live useful.

[USTropics]

The surge would be significant if Tampa were to take a direct hit at that angle. Here is anticipated surge for a category 4 hurricane (red is 9+ feet, orange is 6-9 feet, yellow is 3-6 feet):
https://i.imgur.com/h3Ja1Mm.png
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-4/

Here is another look for a category 3 hurricane at mean tide:
https://i.imgur.com/zV3mDTZ.png

Essentially, the bay is a shallow estuary, with an average depth of 11 feet. The surge would be truly historic and significant, something living residents in Tampa area have never experienced before.

Is there a tool you used to make this?

Not the OP, but you may find https://cera.coastalrisk.live useful.

This is super cool, didn't know this existed. Thanks for sharing!

[jhpigott]

Florida's a little wet ahead of Milton

https://i.imgur.com/6GGAisu.gif

Here in northern Palm Beach County, we've had 3-4 inches of rain since Friday morning, with a bunch more coming tonight and tomorrow before we even get any Milton related rain

[WaveBreaking]

1 hour old microwave:

https://i.imgur.com/4XktMoD.png

https://i.imgur.com/HVpMaXm.png

IMO, I think Milton is trying to close off a smaller eyewall after that dry slot appeared. Here’s my interpretation of the lastest microwave image:

[zzzh]

1 hour old microwave:

https://i.imgur.com/4XktMoD.png

https://i.imgur.com/HVpMaXm.png

Looks like a pinhole, waiting for recon to confirm it.

[aspen]

1 hour old microwave:

https://i.imgur.com/4XktMoD.png

https://i.imgur.com/HVpMaXm.png

IMO, I think Milton is trying to close off a smaller eyewall after that dry slot appeared. Here’s my interpretation of the lastest microwave image:

https://i.imgur.com/aoQhgcO.jpeg

That lines up with USTropic’s analysis a few pages ago.

[grapealcoholic]

1 hour old microwave:

https://i.imgur.com/4XktMoD.png

https://i.imgur.com/HVpMaXm.png

IMO, I think Milton is trying to close off a smaller eyewall after that dry slot appeared. Here’s my interpretation of the lastest microwave image:

https://i.imgur.com/aoQhgcO.jpeg

That curved band will become an EWRC eventually.

[StormPyrate]

has this storm had an eyewall long enought to even have an eyewall replacement?

[zal0phus]

What do you think of the possibility for Milton getting so close to the Yucatan that it gets disrupted/makes landfall? That would be a worst-case scenario for them, but spare Florida from one.

Its a possibility

It seems like a pretty narrow possibility to me. It would have to start diving due southeast anytime now.

[zzzh]

Extrap 978.3mb

[Travorum]

978.3mb extrap (!), winds lagging in the NW thought.

[ROCK]

A couple of planes in the storm now sampling. Should have good data in a few minutes. Flight level winds in the west and southwest are so so…

And there is the data lol…right on queue..

[Team Getterdun]

has this storm had an eyewall long enought to even have an eyewall replacement?

My thoughts exactly

[zzzh]

One thing I noticed is that the pressure gradient is less steep compared to previous passes. Need to tight up to get going faster.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

978 is an impressive value already, the HAFS-A/B didn't have it that low until early tomorrow AM.