ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

The LLC looks like it’s starting to pivot to the ESE/ENE now. Maybe it was just revolving around the MLC.

Looking at visible on the NHC site, it's definitely not moving NW like it's supposed to. It appeared to have drifted SW and now it's kind of stationary or even more back east a little closer to the convection? I don't know if that's going to throw the track off. Is it going to be southerly now since it's northward movement is temporarily halted? Hopefully we'll get answers to that soon.

It usually better to look at the overall envelope to guess motion when there is a naked swirl, especially when that swirl appears to be rotating around say a MLC.

I am not seeing much of a West component with the overall convection but it is tough to determine as the convection envelope is expanding.

Levi mentioned this in his video it is a temporary move. He thinks theres a couple of vorts that are orbiting the main coc and should come together to stack. he mentions the dry air(whats new this year) and says if it doesn't come together by the gulf it wont be as strong most likely.

[Frank P]

[psyclone]

It's a naked swirl surrounded by convection. It's so 2024

[robbielyn]

If this turns out to be completely different than projected as in weakening significantly, people will stop getting ready at least here in fl. here we are planning for cat 3 gonna be bad and maybe won't be that bad at all. while that is a relief for sure, it is exhausting thinking something bad is going to happen and stressful to say the least. It's no one's fault per se but this year is anything but climatology as we know it. Nothing has happened the way climatology says it should.

[Nederlander]

I still don't think that's the main center. It looks like it is starting to move east indicative of a rotating center

That is definitely the main center you are seeing on vis (the naked swirl with convection popping)

[ConvergenceZone]

If this turns out to be completely different than projected as in weakening significantly, people will stop getting ready at least here in fl. here we are planning for cat 3 gonna be bad and maybe won't be that bad at all. while that is a relief for sure, it is exhausting thinking something bad is going to happen and stressful to say the least. It's no one's fault per se but this year is anything but climatology as we know it. Nothing has happened the way climatology says it should.

That's true, this year seems different. I agree with what Levi says though, if it doesn't get its act together soon, then it's going to come in weaker than expected. Even though it's still possible to make cat 3 status, I think a cat 2 is more likely, especially since per the NHC, no further strengthening is expected 12 hours prior to landfall. It would be great if the predicted landfall would drop to a cat 1, but I don't think it will come in that low.

[Jr0d]

If this turns out to be completely different than projected as in weakening significantly, people will stop getting ready at least here in fl. here we are planning for cat 3 gonna be bad and maybe won't be that bad at all. while that is a relief for sure, it is exhausting thinking something bad is going to happen and stressful to say the least. It's no one's fault per se but this year is anything but climatology as we know it. Nothing has happened the way climatology says it should.

Way too early to assume it's going to be significantly weaker than originally forecast, especially after one model run.

I can make a list of storms that were supposed to be sheared, instead the upper air shearing feature ended up helping the outflow instead of ripping apart the system...

Until this gets into the Gulf of Mexico and makes the birth to northeast turn, I will have low confidence in the forecast. By then we should be able to see signs of increase shear or signs of improving outflow/ventaliation(what we dont want to see)...this should be less than 24 hours from now.

[DunedinDave]

If this turns out to be completely different than projected as in weakening significantly, people will stop getting ready at least here in fl. here we are planning for cat 3 gonna be bad and maybe won't be that bad at all. while that is a relief for sure, it is exhausting thinking something bad is going to happen and stressful to say the least. It's no one's fault per se but this year is anything but climatology as we know it. Nothing has happened the way climatology says it should.

Yeah, I'm coming across a lot of that in Pinellas County. No one taking this seriously. Everybody's like "It's going to the panhandle" and "It's weak" and "They never come here." It is what it is but it's a shame to see everybody here letting their guard down and shrugging it off. I went to get gas today and there were just 2 cars at the station. During Irma, you had to wait an hour in line.

[TraumaCane]

If this turns out to be completely different than projected as in weakening significantly, people will stop getting ready at least here in fl. here we are planning for cat 3 gonna be bad and maybe won't be that bad at all. while that is a relief for sure, it is exhausting thinking something bad is going to happen and stressful to say the least. It's no one's fault per se but this year is anything but climatology as we know it. Nothing has happened the way climatology says it should.

I work for one of State of Florida Agencies and we just had a meeting about it but we still haven't heard if we are getting time off, I know the local schools are doing half days on Wed and closing for the rest of the week. This was all just announced with the last few hours. Being born in Miami and raised in South Florida my entire life this isn't anything new to me always keeping an eye on the tropics. People here in Tallahassee say some really really dumb things about being so far inland, it will turn, the MagLab will move the storm all sorts of dumb stuff.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Maybe this is just my untrained eye, but it sure looks like that naked swirl is "rapidly" being surrounded by convection.

It's bizarre how so many people can see so many different things, many polar opposites, when looking at the same thing.

It seems to me that its structure is coming together nicely and once that NW quadrant finishes closing off, I think it's primed and ready.

[StPeteMike]

It’s definitely filling in. And I don’t see much shear to hold it steady once the convection fills in. If she can wrap the convection around the llc by evening, that’s 2 full days of strengthening.

The llc also has been stationary for a while and think it’s about to start moving north/NNW with this stall.

[Jr0d]

Maybe this is just my untrained eye, but it sure looks like that naked swirl is "rapidly" being surrounded by convection.

It's bizarre how so many people can see so many different things, many polar opposites, when looking at the same thing.

It seems to me that its structure is coming together nicely and once that NW quadrant finishes closing off, I think it's primed and ready.

It looks like it. I find the 'Sandwich' good for picking up on this.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

Tough to tell overall motion, not even going to speculate cause I am blinded by my location bias.(Hopefully it's that is because turning north now would be really really bad)

[jdjaguar]

It’s definitely filling in. And I don’t see much shear to hold it steady once the convection fills in. If she can wrap the convection around the llc by evening, that’s 2 full days of strengthening.

The llc also has been stationary for a while and think it’s about to start moving north/NNW with this stall.

Looking at the visible...Helene is starting to get that "look"

[ronjon]

Overall system becoming more circular and convection filling in around COC. Once some hot towers pop near center, Helene should start to steadily strengthen. This discussion of weakening storm is premature to say the least. Based on Satellite though this is gonna be a large storm.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Crucially, I think, it looks like that convection firing on the S/SW side, especially the stuff right over Roatan, is going to shut off any dry air from the Yucatan. Whatever "dry" air is currently in there I would think would get mixed out pretty quickly once the circulation ramps up.

[Frank P]

Maybe this is just my untrained eye, but it sure looks like that naked swirl is "rapidly" being surrounded by convection.

It's bizarre how so many people can see so many different things, many polar opposites, when looking at the same thing.

It seems to me that its structure is coming together nicely and once that NW quadrant finishes closing off, I think it's primed and ready.

That is the LLC that was identified in the 2pm NHC update, their location matched that naked LLC in the sat images... so why are people still doubting it, and it has been pulling convections towards it for the past hour or so.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 09, 2024092418, , BEST, 0, 194N, 846W, 40, 998, TS

[Frank P]

Appears to be moving more NW at the moment or wobbling between WNW and NW.

[Jr0d]

Overall system becoming more circular and convection filling in around COC. Once some hot towers pop near center, Helene should start to steadily strengthen. This discussion of weakening storm is premature to say the least. Based on Satellite though this is gonna be a large storm.

It is certainly getting that look now, the amount of improvement of the structure in just 6 hours is a bit alarming.

It's about time for me to go to work...it will give me a break from swirl watching and my location bias telling me it making a premature turn toward me.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Appears to be moving more NW at the moment or wobbling between WNW and NW.

This is what I see, too. Over the last 2 hours, it's gone from "establishing" the COC which gave it that appearance of a SW motion, then drifted almost due westward, perhaps just slightly north of due west, and now appears to be wobbling essentially due north. That translates to an overall NW motion.