ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

2nd Air Force pass VDM reports the eyewall has closed after that burst of convection north of the core.

URNT12 KNHC 070103
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 07/00:44:20Z
B. 22.53 deg N 093.32 deg W
C. 700 mb 2931 m
D. 980 mb
E. 085 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 66 kt
I. 025 deg 9 nm 00:42:00Z
J. 136 deg 70 kt
K. 036 deg 14 nm 00:40:30Z
L. 71 kt
M. 224 deg 12 nm 00:48:00Z
N. 314 deg 81 kt
O. 224 deg 12 nm 00:48:00Z
P. 10 C / 3047 m
Q. 15 C / 3048 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF302 0514A MILTON OB 14
MAX FL WIND 81 KT 224 / 12 NM 00:48:00Z
;

The VDM from 0123z shows

F. OPEN SE
G. C18

[eastcoastFL]

The chart for the recon flight looks like it measured mslp sub 980 but the last center fix is 982mb with 9kts of wind. Has there been a recent reading I missed?

Extrapolated pressure isn’t perfect and usually reads a couple mb too low. Pressure is officially confirmed via dropsonde

I see there was a 977 in a VDM.

[Travorum]

We're getting mixed returns on the status of the eyewall from both planes in Milton right now, as NOAA just reported the eyewall at 18nm and open to the SE. Given the small size of the core and rapid development this wouldn't be surprising, with convection blowing up around different quadrants it might take a bit for Milton to build a robust and stable eyewall.

[Michele B]

Contrary to present motion, the NE/ SW orientation of the overall envelope suggests to me that it's forward track should begin to start gaining a little latitude quite soon.

An often overlooked and very simple way to determine short-term storm direction. Follow the higher clouds in front of it. I wish I could find the clip of John Hope saying that.

Gosh, we miss his sage wisdom!

[WaveBreaking]

[JaxGator]

5pm they actually didn't move the track much, if anything a little more south slightly

And I'm listening to Dr. Knabb on TWC right now, and he's saying they are now thinking the cold front that's digging in now and keeping Milton southerly will move out and he'll take a pretty sharp "left turn" and may end up much further north as it hits FL. Possibly near Cedar Key. They don't need that!

Ugh. That would be terrible for Cedar Key and points inland. One of my friends has been helping first responders and the National Guard with the clean up there (from Helene) and they have made good progress so far. They don’t need another repeat again. Glad Recon is currently in Milton now as he looks to having another episode of intensification. Watching closely.

[gatorcane]

Mandatory evacuations for Pasco County zones A and B:
https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2024 ... acuations/

[Fancy1002]

I expect to wake up tomorrow and either see a monstrous eye staring at me, or one well on its way to opening.

[Ptarmigan]

First Helene and now Milton. I would not be surprised if Milton becomes a Category 5 hurricane.

[eastcoastFL]

The chart for the recon flight looks like it measured mslp sub 980 but the last center fix is 982mb with 9kts of wind. Has there been a recent reading I missed?

There's two planes in there right now and the more recent of the two drops has 980mb

That was it. I was looking at two planes and didn't know.

[Travorum]

SAR pass from about an hour ago, supports 80kts.

Platform: RCM-2
Acquisition Date: 2024-10-07 00:22:41 UTC
Storm Name: AL142024 / MILTON
Storm ID: AL14
Storm Center Longitude: -93.366
Storm Center Latitude: 22.489
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 46.126
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 73.35
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 67.10
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 79.30
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 79.27
RMax (nmi): 10.00 - 13.00

[eastcoastFL]

SAR pass from about an hour ago, supports 80kts.

https://i.imgur.com/fpxyMGo.png

Platform: RCM-2
Acquisition Date: 2024-10-07 00:22:41 UTC
Storm Name: AL142024 / MILTON
Storm ID: AL14
Storm Center Longitude: -93.366
Storm Center Latitude: 22.489
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 46.126
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 73.35
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 67.10
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 79.30
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 79.27
RMax (nmi): 10.00 - 13.00

They'll probably bump it up to 90mph at 11pm.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1843108472357028295

[ElectricStorm]

975.5mb extrap from NOAA plane

[ElectricStorm]

NOAA drop supports 978mb, down 2 mb from last drop a little over an hour ago

[zzzh]

F. OPEN NW
G. C17

Eye continues to contract. Pinhole eye is very likely.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

[StPeteMike]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Strong Cat 2 in the morning and Cat 3 by 2 pm, if it keeps this good structure going.

[eastcoastFL]

Fully expect this to be a Cat 2 by tomorrow AM.

https://i.imgur.com/1TsuVJA.jpeg

Same here, probably keep it a cat 1 at 11pm with 90mph but we will wake up to a CAT 2. These tiny storms can ramp up fast. They can also fall apart fast (fingers crossed).

[REDHurricane]

Eyewall about to close off soon: