EPAC: ALETTA - Remnants

[Subtrop]

EP, 91, 2024070300, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1020W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, SPAWNINVEST, ep772024 to ep912024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep912024.dat

[TallyTracker]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development of this system, and a short-lived tropical
depression could form within the next day or so while it moves
northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is forecast to move
over cooler waters on Friday, and thereafter further development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Even if this manages to develop, I doubt more than a minimal TS is likely before hitting cooler waters. I think only about a 30% it gets named before that happens. Crazy how quiet the EPAC continues to be!

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some further development of this
system during the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical
depression could form during that time. On Friday, the system is
forecast to move over cooler waters and development after that time
is not expected. The disturbance is forecast to move northward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

[Teban54]

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1808841256006480005

[Subtrop]

EP, 01, 2024070412, , BEST, 0, 168N, 1053W, 30, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 007, TRANSITIONED, epA12024 to ep012024,

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 105.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized over the past
12-18 hours in association with the small area of low pressure that
NHC has been monitoring for the past several days. There have been
no recent scatterometer or passive microwave passes to assess the
low-level circulation of the system. However, the persistence of the
convection and the current satellite structure suggest a
well-defined surface circulation has likely formed underneath the
colder cloud tops. It is determined that the first tropical
depression of the eastern Pacific season has formed. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on a T2.0 subjective Dvorak
classification from TAFB.

The center position of the depression is uncertain based on the lack
of data, but the initial estimated motion is northwest (325/8 kt).
The models agree that this motion will continue into tonight,
followed by a westward turn on Friday within the low-level flow.
With warm SSTs and relatively low shear today, it is possible that
the system could briefly strengthen into a tropical storm, though
not explicitly forecast. The tropical cyclone will move across the
26C isotherm during the next 24-36 h, and the cooler waters and
drier mid-level environment thereafter should induce a weakening
trend. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery
suggest convection is likely to collapse on Friday, and the system
is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate
later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 17.0N 105.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 17.8N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 17.5N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[TallyTracker]

Looks like about a 50/50 chance of an upgrade to TS if Dvorak can hit 2.5. We’ll see. Either way still an anemic start to the EPAC season.

[aspen]

First EPac TC, and it only took until July 4th lol

[Kingarabian]

Pretty brutal if this manages to not get named.

[Category5Kaiju]

First EPac TC, and it only took until July 4th lol

Happy Independence Day!

[cycloneye]

Say hello to the first named storm Aletta. Finnally EPAC has the first one.

EP, 01, 2024070418, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1065W, 35, 1005, TS

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

July 4 is not actually a slow start (historical average is 2 by now), just in comparison...

[cycloneye]

Even if best track has upgraded TD-ONE-E to TS Aletta, the title of thread will not change until is oficial on the next advisory, because you never know if at the last minute, they dont upgrade for some reason.

[Hurricane2022]

Hello, Slopetta!!

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1808944603145351617

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024
200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024

The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon
consists of a small area of deep convection over the center, with a
curved band over the western portion of the circulation. Various
satellite estimates today indicate the compact system could be
stronger than previously estimated. Recent UW-CIMSS objective
satellite intensity estimates (including ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, and
SATCON) range from 31-35 kt. SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T
numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. Also, there
was an earlier RCM-1 SAR overpass that showed tropical-storm-force
winds within the compact circulation. Given the small size of the
system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial
intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the depression
has strengthened to Tropical Storm Aletta.

Aletta is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at around 9 kt. A turn
toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday as
the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level
flow. Aletta is likely at or near its peak intensity. The bulk of
the intensity guidance shows weakening over the next day or two
while the storm moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs.
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show convection
could collapse overnight or early Friday, and the low is forecast to
spin down and dissipate later this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 17.9N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[Yellow Evan]

Might be a bit stronger estimated given its size and rather impressive convective organization.

[Kingarabian]

Convection has warmed. Earlier it looked like it was building an eyewall.