WPAC: PRAPIROON - Remnants

[Hayabusa]

91W.INVEST

91W INVEST 240715 0000 8.2N 128.8E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZJUL2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150151ZJUL2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 15JUL24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.1N 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY 87 NM EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3N
129.4E, APPROXIMATELY 623 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A 150426Z ATMS 88.2 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LLC. A PARTIAL 150111Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS 10-15 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20) VWS,
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 190100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190100Z-190600ZJUL2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.8N 125.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 759 NM
EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOSED CIRCULATION (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW (05-15KTS) VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) IS LOCATED NEAR
11.8N 133.6E, APPROXIMATELY 277 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF TURNING
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. FORMATIVE CLOUD
BANDS WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MADE EVIDENT BY THE CIRRUS
FILAMENTS FLOWING IN EITHER DIRECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
92W IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15KT), POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
WITH ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM
AND PARA 1.B.(2) TO LOW.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 190000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 118E NW 15 KT.

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ50 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 14.3N 116.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 17.0N 114.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 210600UTC 17.9N 111.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220600UTC 20.4N 111.0E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 190930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190922Z JUL 24//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW
190930)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 118.3E TO 17.7N 112.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 118.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7N
118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF
MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 190124Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH A WEAKLY
DEFINED LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-15KTS) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL STEER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.4E.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WP, 04, 2024071918, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1157E, 30, 1000, TD,

[cycloneye]

Up to TS Prapiroon.

WP, 04, 2024072018, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1115E, 35, 997, TS

[Hurricane2022]

Up to TS Prapiroon.

WP, 04, 2024072018, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1115E, 35, 997, TS

JMA named it?

[cycloneye]

Up to TS Prapiroon.

WP, 04, 2024072018, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1115E, 35, 997, TS

JMA named it?

Not yet. Fixed the title.

[Hayabusa]

JMA upgrades at 0300z

T2404(Prapiroon)
Issued at 2024/07/21 04:15 UTC
Analysis at 07/21 03 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°25′ (16.4°)
E111°20′ (111.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 165 km (90 NM)
Forecast for 07/22 03 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°40′ (19.7°)
E109°50′ (109.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 95 km (50 NM)
Forecast for 07/23 00 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°20′ (21.3°)
E108°10′ (108.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1815071504872116735

[Hayabusa]

Up to STS

T2404(Prapiroon)
Issued at 2024/07/22 07:10 UTC
Analysis at 07/22 06 UTC
Grade STS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°10′ (20.2°)
E108°35′ (108.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area 280 km (150 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Prapiroon most likely peaked at Typhoon strength

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1815358894660616270

[Hurricane2022]

NOW IT'S PRAPIROOVER...