EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

EP, 93, 2024072312, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1056W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010, SPAWNINVEST, ep712024 to ep932024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep932024.dat

[Hurricane2022]

Another day, another bust. Period!

[HurricaneRyan]

I'm sorry, the old EPAC can't come to the phone right now. Why, OH? CUZ IT'S DEAD!

[zzzh]

Looks like a TD/TS right now.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like a TD/TS right now.

Agreed. Look at those low cloud lines. 30%?

[cycloneye]

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become better organized today. This system could become a
short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two before
it reaches an environment that is less favorable for development.
The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
around 15 mph, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

Well folks, we're not going to see 1914 II again.

[Teban54]

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located several hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico,
have become better organized today. This system could become a
short-lived tropical depression during the next day or two before
it reaches an environment that is less favorable for development.
The disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
around 15 mph, remaining offshore of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

"This system could become a short-lived tropical depression"

Looks like even the NHC is mocking the EPAC for not getting another named storm

[Sciencerocks]

https://imgur.com/a/4ft43zo

[zzzh]

EP, 93, 2024072418, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1117W, 35, 1007, LO,

NHC saw the ASCAT and will upgrade it to TS Bud shortly.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/AlanSevere/status/1816189428727177366

[cycloneye]

Offshore Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located several hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing winds to tropical storm force
south and east of its center. The associated showers and
thunderstorms have also increased in organization during the day,
and if this activity continues, then advisories would likely be
initiated on a tropical storm later this afternoon. The low is
forecast to move westward around 15 mph, away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

Hello, Bud.

[Sciencerocks]

[Xpost] https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1816193174727188504


[/Xpost]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 112.2W
ABOUT 425 MI...690 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES





Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024
200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024

Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located several
hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become much better organized over the past
12 hours or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate
from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and a pair of recent ASCAT passes shows
a well-defined cyclone with 35-kt winds. Based on the ASCAT data
and the improvement in convective organization observed on GOES-18
satellite images, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm
Bud.

Bud is currently moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. A mid-level
ridge to the north of Bud will cause a gradual turn to the west over
the next day. On Friday, with Bud likely weakening, the cyclone
should turn to the southwest and decelerate, following the low-level
flow.

Bud is currently in an environment that appears favorable in terms
of warm SSTs and a moderately moist environment, but there appears
to be some easterly shear affecting the cyclone. Therefore, no
change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
although some slight intensification cannot be ruled out. Beyond
36 h, the cyclone should begin traversing decreasing sea surface
temperatures, and move into an environment of drier air and
increasing vertical wind shear. Therefore, gradual weakening is
forecast during that time. The intensity forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope and calls for the cyclone to
become a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.6N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 17.3N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Berg

[Kingarabian]

Looks like we'll have to wait for the EPACs first hurricane.

[IcyTundra]

Going to be short lived like Aletta but at least 2024 won't break 1972's record of the latest 2nd named storm on record. Still has a lot of work to do to catch up to 2007 in ACE.

[Teban54]

[Hurricane2022]

Another day, another bust. Period!
https://imageshack.com/i/pmhhEum9p

Oh God...

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Another day, another bust. Period!
https://imageshack.com/i/pmhhEum9p