ATL: DEBBY - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs.

[SFLcane]

Bams also show quick turn NE south of fort Myers

[cycloneye]

[SFLcane]

[DunedinDave]

This reminds me a lot of Idalia last year in that I think it’s going to have a very short window to ramp up but even more disorganized. I don’t think this is anything until it gets north of Cuba. 06z Euro seems to turn this into nothing now.

I think we get a storm out of it but not sure anything more.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, some of these model runs, assuming they were to verify, seem to want to pound Ian-affected areas with flooding.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1819023769777918430

[chaser1]

Just another unknown caveat to throw into the mix of things. It might be interesting to see which (if any) models suggest faster development or RI in terms of how it might relate to the eventual storm track. Meaning, if there are already indications of a COL or short-term breakdown of steering in the S.E. GOM and any particular model suggest significant deepening to occur around that same time, such a quick fall in surface pressures could somewhat mitigate or at least further delay any onset of forward motion towards the projected weakness in the ridge. Such temporary stalls within quickly organizing systems can be apt to impact forecast point verification by hours. That might not seem like much, but it might just impact the timing 2-3 days later whether slipping through a weakness or just missing a retreating trough and getting blocked by the rebuilding ridge. Timing is everything but right now land will play the biggest factor there.

[chaser1]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1819023769777918430

I HATE spiders

[BobHarlem]

12z Icon again ignores the blocking high idea and plows through into the Atlantic... or so it seems.





well scratch that, it slows down here in this run and ultimately out to sea (safely away from Bermuda also). I don't think the icon does well with these type of scenarios and just may be playing slow catchup to other models here:

[Hurricaneman]

12z Icon again ignores the blocking high idea and plows through into the Atlantic... or so it seems.

https://i.imgur.com/PoayxmG.png

https://i.imgur.com/MNcuvAk.png

well scratch that, it stalls it out here:

https://i.imgur.com/LX3RX9n.png

Looks like the 6zGFS

[chaser1]

12Z GFS rolling...... Though subtle, I noticed that the 12Z Icon was a bit south and west of where the GFS (6Z) 12Z 8/5 forecast point was. I then took a quick look at the 12Z NAM to compare the short-wave position over Virginia compared to its earlier run. Seems to me that the trough is filling and pulling out a bit quicker. If that trend also applies to the GFS modeling than I'd anticipate GFS to have the storm a little south and/or west of its previous 6Z forecast for that (0Z 8/5) time. That would further make the argument for being trapped like a rat. Who knows, 12Z GFS might look similar to the BAM's with a Ft. Myers stall, or crossing the state further south and stalling south of Melbourne?

[toad strangler]

12z GFS passes very close to Tampa heading N and strengthening @70 hours and LANDFALL at the Suwanne River area at 85 hours CRAWLING NNE

[MetroMike]

CMC is not running yet for some reason on my 2 sites.

[BobHarlem]

12z gfs landfall Cedar key late Sunday night.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS @101 hours is nearly stalled in extreme SE GA

[Michele B]

Wow, some of these model runs, assuming they were to verify, seem to want to pound Ian-affected areas with flooding.

So much riding on the steering currents.

Even if it doens't intensify much beyond a TS or Cat 1 (or 2), if it lingers over SW FL, or loops back toward us, yeah, those of us who were under Ian will see LOTS and LOTS of rain. I'm not personally in a flood prone area, but closer to the coast, folks are. That won't be fun. They'll have to evacuate, even if it isn't a full-blown hurricane.

That tends to create problems, but cause people hesitate to evacuate. They forget "hide from wind, run from water."

[mpic]

Any time the models show that it will enter the GOM this time of year, I get nervous in the Houston area. My damage from Beryl should be completed this weekend, but I had to spend the money that I had saved up for a generator on my deductible. Strong -removed- going on at my house lol.

[BobHarlem]

Over water again, moving very slowly off Brunswick, GA/St. Simons Island

[chaser1]

So far, the 12Z GFS is pretty much smack on top of its 6Z position forecast times