ATL: DEBBY - Advisories

[cycloneye]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
1500 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 76.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 76.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z



BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the southwest coast
of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys south
of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, the southern
coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card
Sound bridge, and for the west coast of the Florida peninsula north
of Bonita Beach to Aripeka.





Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days
is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to
the north and south of a broad vorticity center. The maximum winds
are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface
observations is near 1012 mb. Given the potential for development
once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are
initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

The initial motion is 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and
north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves
into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude
trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature
into the westerlies after about 60 h. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near
the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that
time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and
move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
the United States. The track guidance is in good agreement with
this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel
to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast
of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large
changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest
impacts.

Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the
system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it
moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite
favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm
sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is
expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast
are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how
long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken
as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the
Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday
morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the
warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita
Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along
the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday
night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of
Florida over the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 20.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
96H 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CROSSING EASTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 77.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE NOW PASSING OVER CENTRAL CUBA...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 78.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula from Bonita Beach to Boca
Grande.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward along the west
coast of the Florida peninsula from Aripeka to the mouth of the
Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the west coast of the
Florida peninsula from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.




Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Convection and vorticity associated with the tropical wave, now over
central Cuba, have both increased a little this afternoon. However,
the circulation is still not well-defined, and the convection is
not yet well enough organized to consider the system to be a
tropical depression. So, the system remains a potential tropical
cyclone at this time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is currently
investigating the northern side of the wave, and a combination of
its dropsondes and earlier scatterometer data suggest that the
maximum winds remain near 25 kt.

The poorly-defined center has moved more westward since the previous
advisory. However the overall motion remains about 290/14 kt. A
turn toward the northwest and north is expected during the next
couple of days as the system moves into a break in the subtropical
ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the Ohio Valley. This
should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies after 48-60 h.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to move into the
Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday,
followed by a motion near the west coast of Florida Saturday night
and Sunday. After that time, the system should cross the northern
Florida peninsula and move over the Atlantic near or offshore of
the southeastern coast of the United States. While the track
guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are a couple of
issues. First, the GFS moves the system much faster northeastward,
and by 72 h it is forecasting the center to be off of the South
Carolina coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET still have the
center over the Gulf of Mexico. Second, due to the track being
almost parallel to both the west coast of the Florida peninsula and
the southeastern U. S. coast, small changes in the track could
cause large differences in potential landfalls and which land areas
receive the strongest impacts.

There is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the
previous advisory. Slow development is possible while the system is
over Cuba, and the system is likely to become a tropical depression
soon after it moves offshore on Saturday. The environment over the
Gulf of Mexico is quite favorable for strengthening with light shear
and very warm sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady
strengthening is expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the
intensity forecast are how long the system will remain offshore of
Florida and how long it will take to consolidate. The system is
likely to weaken as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification
likely over the Atlantic after 72 h.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this
weekend through Wednesday morning. Isolated river flooding will also
be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the
Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape
Sable to Boca Grande. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Florida Keys on Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of
Boca Grande to Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach
to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later tonight and on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0600Z 22.4N 80.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 03/1800Z 24.2N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 04/0600Z 26.1N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 28.1N 83.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 29.7N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 30.9N 81.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 32.6N 80.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H 07/1800Z 34.5N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING
ACROSS CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 78.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 79.7W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca
Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape
Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to
the mouth of the Suwannee River





Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Shortwave infrared satellite imagery, Cuban radar data, and surface
observations from Cuba and the Cayman Islands suggest that the
disturbance has developed a closed circulation, and the center is
located just off the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is still
a bit fragmented, but there has been a persistent burst near the
estimated center since earlier this afternoon. The wind and
pressure field could still be a little elongated within the
southern semicircle, but overall the system appears to have enough
organization to now be designated as a tropical depression. The
initial intensity remains 25 kt based on earlier observations.

The depression has not begun to turn yet, and the initial motion is
west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. A turn toward the northwest and
then north is expected over the weekend due to a break in the
subtropical ridge caused by a trough over the eastern United
States. Since the system has not started to turn yet, this has
caused all of the track guidance to shift west, and the updated NHC
forecast is a bit west of the previous forecast along the eastern
edge of the main cluster of models. It is important to note that
because of the forecast track being parallel to the west coast of
Florida, the location and timing of a potential landfall cannot be
pinned down at this time. One additional significant change to the
forecast is that the models seem to be showing the aforementioned
trough leaving the cyclone behind early next week, which causes a
much slower motion while the system is near the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina. As a result, the new NHC forecast is notably
slower than the previous forecast, particularly on days 4 and 5.

The westward shift to the track forecast now also keeps the system
over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico longer, giving the
system additional time to potentially strengthen. In fact, the
SHIPS guidance and all of the regional hurricane models show the
cyclone reaching hurricane strength before reaching land in the Big
Bend region of Florida in 2 to 3 days. As a result, the new NHC
forecast brings the intensity to 60 kt at 60 hours as the system is
reaching land, but if model trends continue, it's possible that
future forecasts could explicit show the system becoming a
hurricane before it reaches land. The intensity forecast is more
uncertain on days 3 through 5 due depending on if the center moves
back offshore or stays inland over the southeastern United States.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river
flooding will also be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the
Tropical Storm Warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape
Sable to Boca Grande and on the Dry Tortugas. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the remainder of the Florida Keys on
Saturday and along the Florida west coast north of Boca Grande to
Suwannee River Saturday night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect.

3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach
to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 21.4N 79.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 22.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER CUBA
24H 04/0000Z 24.6N 83.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 04/1200Z 26.6N 84.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 28.4N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 29.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 30.8N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0000Z 31.8N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0000Z 32.8N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 80.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM SSE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Aucilla River to Yankeetown,
Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the mouth of the Suwannee
River to Aucilla River, Florida.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward along the
west coast of the Florida peninsula from Boca Grande to south of
Yankeetown, including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Aucilla River to
the Ochlockonee River.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Channel 5
Bridge has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the Florida
peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge has been
discontinued.


Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Small bursts of deep convection have continued near the estimated
center of the depression, with some skeletal convective bands over
the outer portions of the circulation. Earlier scatterometer data
revealed the strongest winds were occurring to the south and east of
the center, offshore of the southern coast of Cuba. The overall
organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little overnight,
and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the earlier
scatterometer winds and recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The estimated motion of the depression is still west-northwestward
at about 14 kt. The influence of an upper-level trough over the
eastern United States should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward
and then northward this weekend as it moves toward a break in the
subtropical ridge. This motion will bring the system across western
Cuba this morning, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico later today, and
toward the Florida Big Bend region on Sunday and Sunday night. There
is reasonably good confidence in this portion of the track forecast,
and only slight westward adjustments were made to the NHC prediction
based on the latest track consensus aids. After landfall, weakening
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it
moves northeastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia.
Thereafter, the track forecast becomes highly uncertain as it is
unclear whether the system will accelerate northeastward ahead
of an upper trough (GFS) or get left behind and meander over
the southeastern U.S. or near the coast (ECMWF).

After the system crosses Cuba and emerges over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable
for intensification. The latest NHC forecast shows the cyclone
becoming a tropical storm by tonight, with additional strengthening
expected while it moves across deep warm waters in a weak shear
environment. The regional hurricane models and statistical guidance
continue to indicate some potential for the system to reach
hurricane strength before it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend
region. Although the latest NHC forecast does not explicitly show
the cyclone becoming a hurricane, note that additional strengthening
could occur between 48-60 h. Weakening is forecast after landfall
while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond
day 3, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain and highly
dependent on whether the center stays inland or emerges off the
Atlantic coast.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river
flooding will also be possible.

2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of west-central
Florida and the Big Bend region, where hurricane conditions are
possible late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
farther south along Florida’s west coast, including the Tampa Bay
area, and across the Dry Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are
in effect.

3. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm
surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach
to Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a
Storm Surge Watch is in effect.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 22.0N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.4N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 25.3N 83.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 27.5N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 29.1N 83.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 30.4N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z 31.2N 82.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0600Z 33.0N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION PASSING OVER WESTERN CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 81.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM S OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 82.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Florida coast west of
the Aucilla River to Indian Pass.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the coast of Florida
from Aripeka to the mouth of the Aucilla River.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the coast of Florida west
of the mouth of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Dry Tortugas
* West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown
to East Cape Sable

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Aripeka northward to the Aucilla River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Aripeka, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor
* West of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass






Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

Tropical Depression Four has become somewhat better organized this
morning, with the circulation becoming better defined over western
Cuba and curved convective bands forming close to the center in the
southern semicircle. However, the circulation is still somewhat
elongated with multiple low-level vorticity centers rotating around
the mean center. The initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt
based on surface observations in the Florida Keys and a satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The depression appears to be starting its northwestward turn with
the initial motion now 300/13 kt. A large mid- to upper-level
trough over the central United States is creating a break in the
subtropical ridge, and the cyclone is expected to turn northward
into this break by 24-36 h. This should be followed by a gradual
turn toward the northeast through 60 h. This motion should bring
the center near or over the northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h.
After landfall, weakening steering currents should cause the cyclone
to slow down while it moves northeastward over parts of northern
Florida and Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases
significantly after 72 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of
the U.S. trough. The current GFS and ECMWF forecast the system to
move into the Atlantic, and then turn back toward the southeastern
U.S. coast by 120 h. On the other hand, the Canadian model moves
the cyclone slowly northeastward across the southeastern states and
does not bring it over the Atlantic. This portion of the new
forecast track shows a slower forward motion than the previous track
due to changes in the GFS forecast since the previous advisory.

After the system crosses Cuba and emerges over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable
for intensification. Due to the lack of internal organization, the
initial intensification is likely to be slow. However, a faster
rate of development is likely once the system gets better
organized, and the cyclone is likely to be near or at hurricane
strength when it reaches to the northern Gulf coast. Weakening is
forecast after landfall while the system moves over the
southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast
remains quite uncertain due to uncertainty of whether the center
will reach the Atlantic and how much interaction will occur with
the aforementioned mid-latitude trough interaction.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash
and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas
of the Southeast this weekend through Thursday morning. River
flooding is also expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday in portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast and Big Bend region where a Hurricane Watch is in
effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected farther south along
Florida’s west coast, including the Tampa Bay area, and in the Dry
Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the west coast of Florida from Aripeka to the
Aucilla River. Life-threatening storm surge is possible west of
Aucilla River to Indian Pass and south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 22.8N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 24.3N 83.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 26.3N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 28.2N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 30.7N 83.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1200Z 31.4N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1200Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1200Z 32.5N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 82.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida Keys from
the Seven Mile Bridge westward.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DEBBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 83.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Florida Gulf coast
from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River.





Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last
advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective
banding to the north and south of the central region. A
combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in
the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows
an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in
the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical
Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby.

The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a
break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn
northward into this break in about 24 h. This should be followed
by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed
through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the
northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening
steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it
moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and
Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly
after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S.
trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward
motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or
northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand,
the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly
northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it
over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track
continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF
solutions.

Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico
with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear.
Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then
proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized
inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity
of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement
with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the
system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the
intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility
of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the
aforementioned mid-latitude trough.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding
is also expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required tonight or on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 23.9N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE DEBBY...
...SQUALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 83.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG BEND
REGION OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 83.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Debby during the past few hours and have found that
the winds have increased slightly and the central pressure has
fallen. The NOAA P-3 plane reported SFMR measurements of 35-40 kt
east of the center over the Straits of Florida, and dropsonde data
indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1003 mb. The
initial intensity is therefore raised to 40 kt.

Debby is gradually turning toward the right and slowing down, and
the initial motion is northwestward, or 320/12 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the eastern United States has created a
break in the subtropical ridge, which will cause Debby to move
northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the
Florida Big Bend region over the next day or two. The track
guidance is in good agreement during this period, and the NHC track
has only been shifted slightly east to account for a slight
relocation of the initial position based on the aircraft data.
After 2-3 days, the steering currents around Debby collapse, and
the cyclone is expected to creep northeastward at less than 5 kt
across northern Florida to near the coasts of Georgia and South
Carolina by day 5. While there is model disagreement on exactly
where Debby will end up on day 5, there is high confidence that the
storm will not be moving very fast, and this slow motion will have
major implications for the associated hazards, particularly heavy
rainfall and flooding.

Low vertical shear and very warm waters (as warm as 32 degrees
Celsius within Apalachee Bay) are likely to support additional
strengthening while Debby approaches the Florida Big Bend. The
intensity guidance has increased a bit on this cycle. Most of the
regional hurricane models are showing Debby reaching hurricane
strength before it reaches the coast, while the
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models have increased to the
75-80-kt range. In addition, the Rapid Intensification indices are
showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 45-kt increase in intensity over the
next 36 hours. Based on these model data, the NHC intensity
forecast has been increased to 75 kt in 36 hours, just before the
center of Debby is expected to reach the coast. Weakening is
anticipated after landfall, but Debby's intensity on days 3 through
5 is highly uncertain and is dependent on whether the center moves
over the Atlantic waters and for how long.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the
Southeast through Thursday. Significant river flooding is also
expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are
possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the
United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.4N 83.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 25.9N 84.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 27.8N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 29.3N 84.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 30.3N 83.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1200Z 31.0N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0000Z 31.2N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0000Z 31.6N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 09/0000Z 33.0N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 84.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Debby continues to slowly strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center and
in fragmented bands on the system's east side. Some of the outer
bands are moving through portions of the Lower Florida Keys and
southwestern Florida, producing tropical-storm-force gusts. The
initial wind speed is nudged upward to 45 kt, in agreement with the
Dvorak classification from TAFB. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm
today, and that data will provide very helpful information to
evaluate Debby's strength and structure.

Debby continues to gradually turn to the right, with the initial
motion now estimated to be north-northwestward at 11 kt. The storm
is currently located on the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic
mid-level ridge, and it is headed toward a weakness caused by a mid-
to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. This steering pattern
should cause Debby to turn northward and then north-northeastward
during the next day or so, taking the core of the cyclone to the Big
Bend region of Florida early Monday. There is high confidence on
this scenario, and little change has been made to that portion of
the track forecast. While Debby moves across the very warm waters
of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and remains in a relatively low wind
shear environment, the storm will have an opportunity to strengthen
rapidly before reaching the coast. The reliable intensity models
all suggest significant strengthening, and the degree of
intensification will be most related to how quickly Debby develops
an inner core. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end
of the intensity guidance through landfall, and shows Debby becoming
a hurricane by tonight prior to landfall.

After Debby makes landfall in Florida, the system is expected to
slow down and turn northeastward across northern Florida and
southeastern Georgia on Monday and Tuesday as the steering currents
weaken significantly. There is a lot of model disagreement in
whether or not the center of Debby stays inland or moves off the
coast of the southeast U.S. by the middle of the week. But, a
building ridge should cause it to turn northward or northwestward
and likely back inland during the middle and latter portions of the
week. Although confidence is low in the details of this portion of
the track forecast, the complex and weak steering pattern suggests
that Debby will be moving quite slowly and likely erratically while
near or over the southeastern U.S., resulting in a potentially
significant flooding event. Since it is not clear if the center
will remain inland or move offshore for a period of time, the
intensity forecast is also of low confidence. For now, little
overall change to the intensity forecast was made, and it shows
Debby remaining a tropical storm while meandering near the southeast
U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban
flooding across portions of northern Florida through Friday morning.
Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of
severe and widespread flash and urban flooding. Significant river
flooding is also expected.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of
the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect,
with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within
the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian
Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to
Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible elsewhere
in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from
Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and
interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of
this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required
later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 25.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 30.9N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0600Z 32.4N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 09/0600Z 34.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 84.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES




Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby
continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite
imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed
with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and
WSR-88D radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form.
The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 kt based on a
significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft.

The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial
motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or
so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the
northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on
Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are
likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves
eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward
speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in
the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center
over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge
builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP corrected
consensus prediction. This keeps the slow-moving center near the
Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame.

Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical
shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant
strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone
forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the
high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to
become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after
it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the
coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below
tropical storm strength through 72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding
impacts from the Florida Big Bend region through southeast GA and
the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. Potentially
historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina
through Friday morning may result in areas of catastrophic
flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and
Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area.

4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible along the
southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
the week, and storm surge watches and tropical storm watches have
been issued for portions of these areas. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY INTO A HURRICANE
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 84.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON MONDAY...
...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch from the mouth of the Saint Mary's River to
South Santee River South Carolina has been changed to a Storm Surge
Warning.

The Hurricane Warning is extended west of the Ochlockonee River to
Indian Pass.

The Tropical Storm Watch from west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Florida and Georgia
coast from Ponte Vedre Beach to the Savannah River.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Bonita Beach Florida is
discontinued.



Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Debby's cloud pattern continues to show increasing organization on
satellite images although there is limited deep convection over the
southwest quadrant of the circulation. The upper-level
anticyclonic outflow pattern is well-defined. The latest Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicated that the central
pressure hadn't changed much and the wind data from the aircraft
continued to support an intensity of near 55 kt. WSR-88D radar
imagery shows that an eyewall may be trying to close off, and
another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Debby in a
few hours to assess the strength of the cyclone.

The cyclone has turned toward the north and is now moving at around
360/10 kt. Debby should continue to move through a break in the
subtropical ridge due to a trough over the eastern United States
for the next day or so, and this motion should bring the center of
the system to the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast around midday
tomorrow. Thereafter, the trough moves eastward, leaving Debby in
weak steering currents for a few days. The track guidance shows
decreasing forward speed and a turn to the east in 24-48 hours.
Some of the track models show the cyclone moving temporarily over
the Atlantic in the 72-hour time frame, and so does the official
forecast.

Debby will continue to move over waters of high heat content
and remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear into Monday
morning. Some dry air intrusion over the southwestern portion of
the circulation may have temporarily interrupted the intensification
process. However, given the favorable oceanic and shear
conditions, significant strengthening is expected before landfall.
Rapid intensification is especially likely if Debby acquires a
well-defined inner core. The official intensity forecast is at the
high end of the model guidance. Although weakening will occur
after landfall, the longer-term strength of the system is
largely dependent on how long it remains over land. Currently the
official forecast shows some re-intensification with Debby moving
into the Atlantic, but how much the system will restrengthen is
highly uncertain.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of
catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in
considerable flooding impacts from the Florida Big Bend region
through southeast GA and the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through
Friday.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and
Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along
portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to
North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge
warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued
for portions of these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 27.7N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 29.1N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 30.5N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 31.3N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/1800Z 31.7N 82.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 07/0600Z 31.7N 81.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/1800Z 31.9N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/1800Z 32.6N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY STRENGTHENING AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AREA...
...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 84.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Debby Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

...DEBBY BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...
...WILL BRING A MAJOR FLOOD THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 84.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from
Suwannee River to Yankeetown.





Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

NWS Doppler Radar imagery from both Tampa and Tallahassee along with
reports from both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Debby's structure has continued to improve this
evening with a ragged eye becoming apparent. Both NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft have found strong flight-level winds
in the convective band located well to the east-northeast of the
center, with the Air Force plane measuring 700-mb flight-level
winds in the 75-77 kt range. Recent dropsonde data has shown that
the pressure has fallen to around 985 mb. Based on these data,
Debby is being upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane at this time.

Although the inner core is still somewhat ragged, the storm's
structure has improved and additional strengthening appears likely
overnight and early Monday while Debby moves over waters of high
heat content in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a favorable
upper-level wind environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again
at the high end of the intensity guidance. Weakening is expected
while Debby moves inland over the southeastern United States. Some
restrengthening is forecast when Debby moves over the western
Atlantic, but there is still higher-than-normal uncertainty in this
portion of the forecast.

There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Debby
should continue to move generally northward overnight and early
Monday through a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a
mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center onshore along the coast of the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. After that time, the trough
is forecast to move eastward causing the steering currents to
weaken over the southeastern United States. This will result in a
significant slowdown of Debby's forward motion, and the model
spread increases significantly in the 72-120 h time period.
Regardless of Debby's exact forecast track during that time, the
slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall
across southeast Georgia and South Carolina, with an increasing
likelihood of catastrophic flooding.


Key Messages:

1. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and
South Carolina through Friday morning will likely result in areas of
catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely result in
considerable flooding impacts from portions of central and northern
Florida through the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown late tonight and Monday morning. Residents in the Storm
Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local
officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning area along Florida's west coast, including
the Tampa Bay area.

4. Dangerous storm surge and wind impacts are expected along
portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeastern Florida to
North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge
warnings and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued
for portions of these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 28.6N 84.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 29.8N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 30.8N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 06/1200Z 31.5N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0000Z 31.6N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 07/1200Z 31.7N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 32.1N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 33.0N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/0000Z 34.7N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown


The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of South Carolina from the
Savannah River to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical
Storm Warning.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
400 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY NEARING LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...400 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that Debby is
nearing landfall and the eastern portion of the eyewall is moving
onshore in the Florida Big Bend. An observation in Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h)
with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Updates will continue through landfall.


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 83.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi