EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

EP, 96, 2024080212, , BEST, 0, 104N, 959W, 25, 1011, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bep962024.dat

[Hurricane2022]

Hello future Daniel. Maybe you will not be able to reach MH status like GFS showed some runs ago

[cycloneye]

Organizing.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

It has been behaving less than expected in terms of being very strong as GFS had a few days ago.

[Yellow Evan]

Guidance now favors 97E.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a broad area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southwestern
Mexico. Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. For
more information of this system, including Gale Warnings, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

Hello future Daniel. Maybe you will not be able to reach MH status like GFS showed some runs ago

Nvm this... Hello future Fabio!!

[cycloneye]

TD as soon as this afternoon.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as soon as this afternoon while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico. For more information of this
system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Obvious TC with nice curved band signature. Dvorak hasn’t started being classified on the system though so NHC will hold off until then most likely.

[cycloneye]

Looks like a TD and it may be oficial in the next few hours. It will be interesting to see the interaction between this and TD Five-E.

[Teban54]

Looks like a TD and it may be oficial in the next few hours. It will be interesting to see the interaction between this and TD Five-E.

https://i.imgur.com/Vv5sPFY.gif

Looks like we may see two pairs of Fujiwhara (Carlotta and Daniel, 5E and 96E) at the same time. How rare is that?

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form tonight or on Monday while the system
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico. For more information on this
system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico continue to
show signs of organization. Overnight satellite-derived wind data
indicated that the system did not yet have a well-defined
circulation. However, satellite imagery since that time suggests
that the system may have become better organized since that time. A
tropical depression is likely to form today or tonight while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico. For more information on this
system, including Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Subtrop]

EP, 06, 2024080512, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1062W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 60, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 45, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, TRANSITIONED, epA62024 to ep062024,

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/A ... 062024.dat

[cycloneye]

TS Emilia will east Fabio.

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that the disturbance
located well southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico has
continued to become better organized, and that it now has sufficient
convection and a well-enough defined circulation to be considered a
tropical cyclone. With an initial intensity of 35 kt based on
earlier scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Storm Fabio.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 310/10. Fabio's motion
should be dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to
the west, with Fabio expected to move northwestward and westward at
an increased forward speed around the north side of Emilia through
the next 48 h.

The intensity forecast is based on the global model forecasts
that Fabio will wind up being absorbed into Emilia in the not
too distant future. Some strengthening is expected during the next
12-24 h. After that, the global models are forecasting that Fabio
will dissipate as it is absorbed into Emilia by the 60 h point.
The intensity forecast and dissipation time lean toward the GFS and
Canadian model solutions, which keep Fabio separate from Emilia
through about 48 h. This forecast is low confidence due to the
possibility that Fabio could try to absorb Emilia.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 14.8N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.3N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.6N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 18.2N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[lilbump3000]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
200 PM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that the low-level center of Fabio is on
the north side of an area of strong, but loosely curved, convective
bands. Scatterometer and synthetic aperture radar data received
since the last advisory indicate that the circulation is closed and
that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in the eastern semicircle.
This is in good agreement with satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB, and it is the initial intensity for this advisory.

The initial motion is now 310/13 kt. Fabio's motion should be
dominated by interaction with Tropical Storm Emilia to the
west-southwest, with Fabio expected to move northwestward and
westward at an increased forward speed around the north side of
Emilia for the next 36-48 h. The new forecast track has only
minor changes from the previous track.

Some strengthening should occur in the next 12 h or so. After
that, the intensity forecast is mainly based on the global model
forecasts that Fabio will wind up being absorbed into Emilia, with
the various model times of this absorption being between 12-36 h.
The official forecast shows Fabio dissipating between 36-48 h in
best agreement with the GFS model. However, the cyclone could
dissipate at any time before then. Confidence in this forecast is
increasing due to the more consistent global model solutions that
Emilia will absorb Fabio.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.6N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 18.2N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven