WPAC: WUKONG - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

96W INVEST 240812 0000 24.7N 148.4E WPAC 15 0

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 24N 147E EAST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.0N 150.6E TO 32.5N 148.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 122000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.4N 149.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) REMAINS LOCATED NEAR
26.4N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 121804Z
MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE LLCC. A 121147Z
ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETRY PARTIAL PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF 96W WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VWS,
DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST, AND WARM (29-30C) SST. OVERALL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS AGREEMENT ON INVEST 96W CONSOLIDATING SLIGHTLY WHILE
TRACKING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72HRS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
132200Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TD a
Issued at 2024/08/13 01:25 UTC
Analysis at 08/13 00 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°05′ (26.1°)
E149°50′ (149.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 08/14 00 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°30′ (30.5°)
E149°40′ (149.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 08/15 00 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N37°05′ (37.1°)
E147°10′ (147.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Wukong

T2408(Wukong)
Issued at 2024/08/13 07:30 UTC
Analysis at 08/13 06 UTC
Grade TS
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°20′ (26.3°)
E150°30′ (150.5°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E165 km (90 NM)
W110 km (60 NM)
Forecast for 08/14 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N31°40′ (31.7°)
E148°05′ (148.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 65 km (35 NM)
Forecast for 08/15 06 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N38°30′ (38.5°)
E148°30′ (148.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 100 km (55 NM)