WPAC: INVEST 96W

[Hayabusa]

96W INVEST 240925 0600 33.1N 141.7E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 251530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/251530Z-260600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251451ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 25SEP24 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (CIMARON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 133.3E, APPROXIMATELY 556 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.5N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 251044Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING, WITH WEAK
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES A SWATH OF 20
TO 25 KNOT CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES,
WHICH IS FUELING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B
(WTPN21 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 33.7N
142.9E, APPROXIMATELY 186 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE
FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD, RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 251050Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL IMAGE
REVEALS A PATCH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY
HIGH (40-50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIVERGENCE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM HONSHU, WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL
WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND ADDED A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS A LOW IN PARA. 1.C.(1).//
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