WPAC: KRATHON - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 240926 0000 25.2N 126.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Low

ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251451ZSEP2024//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 26SEP24 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (CIMARON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 132.3E, APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 260300) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.5N 149.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 148.3E, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A
251044Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING, WITH
WEAK LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES A SWATH
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT CONVERGENT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLES, WHICH IS FUELING THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSIVE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF
A (WTPN21 PGTW 251500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.5N 126.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA, AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 260100Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS 20-25 KNOTS OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. A 260100Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 20-25
KNOTS OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM MIYAKOJIMA SHOWS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 10-17KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING THE POSITION AND
INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE
SEA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
29-30 DEGREES C.FROM MIYAKOJIMA SHOWS WINDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
BETWEEN 10-17KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUPPORTING THE POSITION AND
INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD, EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHERE IT WILL FIND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KNOTS, GOOD
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
29-30 DEGREES C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12
TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
35.5N 145.6E HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS NO LONGER
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00z, pretty interesting scenario, the meandering will cause to significantly intensify

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 260600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 22N 128E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Hayabusa]

06Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/261800Z-270600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261351ZSEP2024//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/261352ZSEP2024//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 26SEP24 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (CIMARON) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 261500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) AT 26SEP24 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 146.8E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 261500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.5N 126.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 127.4E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 261252Z METOP-B AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE
NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 97W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

JMA TC warning

TD a
Issued at 2024/09/26 19:10 UTC
Analysis at 09/26 18 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N21°20′ (21.3°)
E127°00′ (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement SSW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 09/27 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°05′ (20.1°)
E125°55′ (125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement SSW Slow
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 09/28 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00′ (19.0°)
E125°20′ (125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement SSW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 09/29 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°00′ (20.0°)
E124°35′ (124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Forecast for 09/30 18 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°20′ (22.3°)
E125°00′ (125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Forecast for 10/01 18 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°40′ (24.7°)
E124°55′ (124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 980 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 520 km (280 NM)

[Hayabusa]

12z

[Hayabusa]

JTWC TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 270130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.7N 127.0E TO 17.7N 124.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 126.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
24.5N 126.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MORE DEFINED AND CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 97W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE SOUTHWARD, NORTHEAST OF LUZON, AND DEEPEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280130Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

18Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

1st warning cat 4 peak

WDPN33 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 20.3N 126.3E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 381 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W (TWENTY) HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED AND
STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), ASSUMED TO BE IN THE CENTER OF ROTATING BANDS OF
CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO VORTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHTS) OVER LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THE LLCC
WAS HIDDEN UNDER THE NASCENT CONVECTION AT THAT TIME AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE DATA POINT PROVIDED ADDITIONAL CLARITY TO THE
INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE. THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY ORGANIZING AND
BECOMING SYMMETRIZED, BUT THE 270416Z TROPICS-5 91GHZ PASS
DEPICTING A NASCENT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE MIGHT BE A BIT TOO MUCH.
REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM HAS THE LOOK. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AND ANALYSIS OF THE VISIBLE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD LINES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD T1.5 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH SHOWED 25 KNOT
WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IN PATCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC, A SMALL POINT SOURCE
ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL TUTT-CELL TO THE EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF HONG KONG.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM FOR TD 20W WILL REMAIN THE STR TO THE WEST, CENTERED
SOUTH OF HONG KONG. THE RIDGE HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY BUT RATHER WILL QUICKLY EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND MOVE INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM, ALLOWING TD 20W TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A WEAK STEERING
PATTERN, CAUGHT BETWEEN A LARGE STR COMPLEX OVER SOUTHERN CHINA, AN
EXTENSION OF THE STR EXTENDING ALONG A LINE FROM MINDANAO THROUGH
GUAM AND TROUGHING TO NORTH OVER KOREA. SO FOR THE 24 HOURS FROM
TAU 24 TO TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL VERY SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD AS THE
VARIOUS RIDGES JOSTLE FOR DOMINANCE. BY TAU 48, THE STR EXTENSION
TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF INTO A DISCRETE
ANTICYCLONE, AND START MOVING NORTHWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO BUILD.
AFTER TAU 48, THIS NEW RIDGE CENTER WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE, PUSHING TD 20W ONTO A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THE EXACT POSITION OF THE RIDGE CENTER RELATIVE TO TD 20W
WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 96. THE
FURTHER EAST THE CENTER, THE FURTHER EAST THE TRACK AND VICE VERSA.
THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF TAIWAN BUT SKIRTS THE
EASTERN COAST AT A RELATIVELY CLOSE RANGE. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY,
THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO ENJOY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEAR-TERM, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
RELATIVELY SLOW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND THE WIND
FIELD SYMMETRIZES. THE PACE OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO PICK
UP IN EARNEST AFTER TAU 36, AS BY THIS POINT THE CIRCULATION IS
FULLY FORMED, IT IS MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE HIGHEST OHC ALONG THE
TRACK AND THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT BECOMES INTENSE, WITH THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 48, IF NOT SOONER. BUT
THIS IS JUST SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE REAL FIREWORKS, WHICH
COMMENCE AT TAU 48. RAPID INTENSIFICATION (IR) IS FORECAST BETWEEN
TAU 48 AND TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY NEAR-RI UP TO TAU 96, WHEN THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT OR NEAR 115 KNOTS. INTERACTION WITH
TAIWAN, AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL RESULT IN MODEST WEAKENING BY TAU
120. ONE FACTOR THAT MAY INFLUENCE THE PEAK INTENSITY IS MODERATE
TO HIGH MID-LEVEL SHEAR, WHICH THE GFS IN PARTICULAR IS PREDICTING
TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 72. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON THIS AND PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
A SOUTHWEST TRACK, THEN SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT, FOLLOWED BY AN
EJECTION TO THE NORTH BY TAU 48. THERE IS HOWEVER A MODEST AMOUNT
OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 72, WITH THE GALWEM SPLITTING OFF FROM
THE PACK AND DRIVING THE SYSTEM OVER THE BABUYAN ISLANDS, WHILE THE
GFS, GEFS AND ECMWF TURN THE SYSTEM MORE SHARPLY NORTHWARD, LEADING
TO A 195NM SPREAD AT TAU 72. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD CONTINUES TO
INCREASE SUCH THAT BY TAU 120, IT REACHES 330NM BETWEEN GALWEM NEAR
KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, AND THE GEFS WEST OF KADENA. THE JTWC FORECAST
LIES JUST INSIDE THE CONSENSUS MEAN TO TAU 72, THEN ALIGNS WELL
WITH THE INTERPOLATED GFS AND ECWMF TO TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSIFICATION TREND TO TAU 72,
BEFORE THE MODELS SPLIT WITH THE AHNI PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS, WHILE
THE HAFS-A PEAKS AT 125 KNOTS. THE JTWC FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS
THE CONSENSUS MEAN BUT PEAKS ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE MEAN.
THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLE HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW,
WITH BOTH MEANS KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF TAIWAN, THOUGH THERE
REMAINS A RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD COVERING ROUGHLY THE TAIWAN
STRAIT TO ISHIKAGIJIMA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

00z

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF and GFS agree with the intensity pretty well. But we're seeing yet another episode of the track bifurcation. GFS calls for a Taiwan landfall, ECMWF confident on recurve --- and holding onto typhoon strength for much longer.

[Hayabusa]

06Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

Jma named

[Hurricane2022]

Maybe a bit off topic here but for me, Krathon is a really cool name to put on a Tropical Cyclone. It certainly seems like a more intimidating name than John, Debby, Helene, etc. If that name was put on a possible cyclone that significantly threatens the US, people would start evacuating before the cyclone even became a real threat to the country lol.

-------Nvm it's just for fun -------

...EYEWALL OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 4 MAJOR HURRICANE KRATHON BEGINNING TO
MOVE ASHORE ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST...

[Hayabusa]

18Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

00z

Nice spread

[Hayabusa]

12z eps some very intense members there...

[Iceresistance]

Raw T6 on the ADT


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