SIO: ANCHA - Remnants

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Subtrop
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SIO: ANCHA - Remnants

#1 Postby Subtrop » Mon Sep 30, 2024 4:24 pm

91S INVEST 240930 1800 9.0S 78.5E SHEM 15 0
Last edited by Subtrop on Tue Oct 01, 2024 8:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Pasmorade
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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S

#2 Postby Pasmorade » Mon Sep 30, 2024 6:43 pm

I was just asking about it a few days ago. What are the chances that it could develop? :D
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Subtrop
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Re: SIO: INVEST 91S

#3 Postby Subtrop » Tue Oct 01, 2024 4:34 pm

WTXS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 76.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 76.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 10.5S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 11.5S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 12.6S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.3S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.9S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 10.1S 75.8E.
01OCT24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 272 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 011800Z IS
998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
NNNN

WTIO30 FMEE 011832
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/2/20242025
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2024/10/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9 S / 76.1 E
(NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/10/02 06 UTC: 10.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 285 SW: 250 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 55

24H: 2024/10/02 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2024/10/03 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 0

48H: 2024/10/03 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 0

60H: 2024/10/04 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2024/10/04 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5-

THE 2ND SYSTEM OF THE SEASON BEGAN TO BE TRACKED BY RSMC THIS
AFTERNOON. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF SYSTEM NO. 2
HAS CHANGED LITTLE, RETAINING ITS CURVED BAND STRUCTURE WITH
CONVECTION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THE
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 1615Z SHOWS WINDS AT 30KT IN THE SOUTH-WEST
QUADRANT, WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS LIMITED TO 35KT UNDER THE
CONVECTION. IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER SIGNIFICANT DATA (NOTABLY
MICROWAVE IMAGES), THE SYSTEM WAS MAINTAINED AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS AT 18Z.
HOWEVER, ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES, BETWEEN 1730Z AND 1830Z, A
SHARPER CURVED BAND APPEARS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND THE ASCAT
PASS AT 17Z (ARRIVING AFTER 18Z) SHOWS A MORE EXTENDED AREA OF 35KT
WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE
CHRISTENED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE BEST-TRACK MODIFIED FOR THE
NEXT BULLETIN, UPGRADING IT TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AT 18Z.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE WEST-SOUTH-WEST THEN SOUTH-WEST
ALONG THE EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTH-EAST. THE PASSAGE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH
COULD MORE OR LESS PULL THE SYSTEM'S TRACK SOUTHWARDS, LEADING TO A
SCATTERING OF NUMERICAL FORECASTS FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST GFS RUN (12Z) HAS REVISED ITS TRACK FURTHER SOUTH, BRINGING IT
CLOSER TO THE IFS SCENARIO. THE RSMC TRACK IS THEREFORE A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TRACK BECOMES
SIGNIFICANT FROM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS ON THE RISE THIS TUESDAY EVENING IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT UNTIL TOMORROW WEDNESDAY: WEAK DEEP
SHEAR, REDUCED MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR, VERY GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE BELOW THE RIDGE, HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL FOR THE SEASON AND
FAIRLY GOOD LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STATUS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WITH AN ESTIMATED PEAK IN
INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING (SLIGHTLY DELAYED
COMPARED WITH THE 12Z NETWORK). FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE
INTENSIFICATION WINDOW SHOULD GRADUALLY CLOSE, AS SOUTH TO
SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE, BRINGING DRY
AIR TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AND REDUCING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE RESISTANCE OF THE VORTEX TO THESE INTRUSIONS OF DRY
AIR REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT MOST MODELS AGREE ON A
LASTING WEAKENING FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO EVOLVE
TO THE STAGE OF A RESIDUAL DEPRESSION GRADUALLY FILLING IN, BUT WITH
WINDS AT 30 KT THEN 25 KT FOR QUITE A LONG TIME DUE TO THE GRADIENT
EFFECT IN ITS SOUTHERN PART.

NO IMPACT EXPECTED ON INHABITED LANDS.=
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Re: SIO: Tropical Depression 01S

#4 Postby Subtrop » Tue Oct 01, 2024 8:24 pm

FKIO20 FMEE 020017
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20241002/0017Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: ANCHA
ADVISORY NR: 2024/01
OBS PSN: 02/0000Z S1001 E07524
CB: WI 300NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL510
MOV: W 05KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 02/0600Z S1032 E07457
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 02/1200Z S1106 E07424
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 02/1800Z S1139 E07339
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 03/0000Z S1212 E07251
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 40KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20241002/0600Z=
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