ARB: INVEST 95A

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Subtrop
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ARB: INVEST 95A

#1 Postby Subtrop » Thu Oct 10, 2024 8:00 am

95A INVEST 241010 1200 16.0N 71.0E IO 15 1009
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Pasmorade
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Re: ARB: INVEST 95A

#2 Postby Pasmorade » Thu Oct 10, 2024 8:06 am

Subtrop wrote:
95A INVEST 241010 1200 16.0N 71.0E IO 15 1009

95A? The only system I know of is 90A, which became Asna. When did the other four invests form?
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Pasmorade
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Re: ARB: INVEST 95A

#3 Postby Pasmorade » Fri Oct 11, 2024 3:09 am

Huh. Neat...
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7N
69.0E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI. ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101848Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE. A PARTIAL 101730Z ASCAT-C PASS
REVEALS WINDS UP TO 20 KTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 95A IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR (10-15KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
95A WILL GENERALLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
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Pasmorade
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Re: ARB: INVEST 95A

#4 Postby Pasmorade » Fri Oct 11, 2024 12:41 pm

Update
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.7N 69.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 66.4E, APPROXIMATELY 543 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH, OMAN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
INVEST 95A IS IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
(15-20KTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE HOWEVER (28-30C).
GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE A RELATIVELY SLUGGISH DEVELOPMENT WITH
A WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. SEE REF A () FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
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