ATL: OSCAR - Models

[Teban54]

These are probably overcooked, but just putting it out here.

[cycloneye]

00z European moves it all the way to north of Dominican Republic.

[kevin]

00z Euro, we could be tracking this one for a while. Most members eventually do develop this and make it a decent TS or at most a low-end hurricane. And of course there is one Euro member that decides we need an Irma-repeat, in October.

[Teban54]

00z Euro, we could be tracking this one for a while. Most members eventually do develop this and make it a decent TS or at most a low-end hurricane. And of course there is one Euro member that decides we need an Irma-repeat, in October.

https://i.imgur.com/ICg0Kvm.png

Considering that the time frame in which EPS shows this is quite similar to when GFS and its ensembles show the Caribbean-Gulf system, would it be an either-or situation where significant development of one system would preclude the other or keep it weak? Or could this end up being another Irma-Jose scenario (with hopefully lower intensities)?

[kevin]

Still very preliminary since we don't have a TC yet, but the 06z GEFS shows a more pronounced SW dip over the coming days than the previous GEFS ensembles. Reminiscent of Irma's SW dip (not implying that this system will be close in intensity to that monster), which would increase the risk for land impacts somewhere down the line.

[USTropics]

Ya know, just your standard African Easterly Wave traversing the entire Atlantic into the Caribbean during the middle of October ( ):

[jjoslin]

Just really took notice of this fella (or lassie if I'm presumptive this is future Nadine) for the first time since the Milton commotion. Mostly I noticed how far west it is going and that in this run of the Euro it is going wsw albeit weakening.

In the setup above why would it not follow the stream of low pressure to its NE? Is that not a trough? I'm new to the forum is there a thread dedicated to meteorological theory questions? I had some notions about steering patterns that have been proven strikingly wrong. I'm a novice, meteorology fan and would love to know more from this great community.

[cycloneye]

Ya know, just your standard African Easterly Wave traversing the entire Atlantic into the Caribbean during the middle of October ( ):
https://i.imgur.com/zIQBwAf.gif

Almost same track as Euro.

[zzzh]

GFS,EC, CMC, ICON all agree on some development as it crosses 60W. Will it enter the Caribbean and will the west Caribbean system develop and induce shear over it?

[WaveBreaking]

Just really took notice of this fella (or lassie if I'm presumptive this is future Nadine) for the first time since the Milton commotion. Mostly I noticed how far west it is going and that in this run of the Euro it is going wsw albeit weakening.
https://imgur.com/dSRtkCN
In the setup above why would it not follow the stream of low pressure to its NE? Is that not a trough? I'm new to the forum is there a thread dedicated to meteorological theory questions? I had some notions about steering patterns that have been proven strikingly wrong. I'm a novice, meteorology fan and would love to know more from this great community.

That large area of high pressure to the north is the main reason why. It’s imparting northeasterly flow on the storm which limits its ability to move to the east. However the storm does start to slow down and change direction at the end of the run, so you are right in that the front would influence the storm to track to the northeast. Also 500 mbar plots from that model run show a trough exiting the US at 240 hours, which would definitely guide the system to the northeast.

[BobHarlem]

[gatorcane]

Latest EC-AIFS bring this all the way into the NW Caribbean with development as does the GFS and CMC, hard to believe but here is the loop:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Latest EC-AIFS bring this all the way into the NW Caribbean with development as does the GFS and CMC, hard to believe but here is the loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/LswVXNc9/ec-aifs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-240.gif

Yeah, a lot of the models have actually been hinting at this. The Canadian had it too, briefly.

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC:

[Kazmit]

https://i.imgur.com/e1qj66R.png
https://i.imgur.com/FeKRGEN.png

Not the Irma WSW bend...

[Hurricane2022]

00z Euro, we could be tracking this one for a while. Most members eventually do develop this and make it a decent TS or at most a low-end hurricane. And of course there is one Euro member that decides we need an Irma-repeat, in October.

https://i.imgur.com/ICg0Kvm.png

Any news about the 00z Euro today?

[cycloneye]

Can't post graphic as is for subscribers but 12z Euro has a cat 2 from 94L in NW Caribbean.

[ColdMiser123]

12z Euro has a hurricane in the NW Caribbean at the end of its run. Worth watching.

[AnnularCane]

12Z CMC:
https://i.postimg.cc/7hkYPgTZ/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh144-240.gif

Well hello there...

Sneaky little thing.

[SFLcane]

lol...ok.