WPAC: INVEST 97W

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 241218 1200 5.8N 150.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Now low but the future isn't looking bright...

ABPW10 PGTW 182000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/182000Z-190600ZDEC2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181921ZDEC2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.8N 128.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
NORTHEAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING REDEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LAST GOOD SCATTEROMETER PASS WAS
NEARLY 24 HOURS AGO, AND THE ONLY DATA AVAILABLE WAS A PARTIAL 181330Z
ASCAT-C PASS WHICH SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION EXTENDING WESTWARD
FROM THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. WINDS WERE LIGHT IN THE
SCATTEROMETER PASS, BUT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE
AND NOT CAPTURED BY THE SCATTEROMETER PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS NOW IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS, GOING FROM STRAIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO A MORE
RELAXED FLOW PATTERN, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO ESTABLISH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE VORTEX REMAINS TILTED HOWEVER, AT LEAST AT THE MOMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
COAST OF MINDANAO. THE LIMITED TIME OVER WATER AND VORTEX MISALIGNMENT
WILL RESULT IN SLOW CONSOLIDATION, AS DEPICTED IN BOTH THE ECEPS AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH ALSO INDICATE SLOW CONSOLIDATION OF 96W AND
THE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 181930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N
148.9E, APPROXIMATELY 502 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE ASSESSED CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH THE LATEST FRAMES
INDICATING THE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AFTER REACHING A PEAK WITHIN THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN 181045Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS REVEALS A SHARP
CUSP FEATURE, VERY NEARLY COMPLETELY CLOSED-OFF INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE LIGHT, WITH 15-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
FURTHERMORE, ASYMMETRIC GRADIENT INDUCED GALE (34-38 KNOT) FORCE WINDS
ARE EVIDENT ABOUT 100NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, THOUGH
THESE WIND ARE NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 97W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACES TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POTENTIALLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE FEATURE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO HIGH,
AND UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) TO LOW.//
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