SPAC: RAE - Post-Tropical

[Subtrop]

94P INVEST 250221 0000 13.9S 178.8E SHEM 15 1009

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD09F CENTER [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.3S
177.8W AT 220600UTC. POSITION FAIR. TD09F MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT
05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 VIS/IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

CONVECTIONS ARE TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. THE
SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE MID LEVEL SHEAR AND GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
DRY MID LEVEL TO THE SOUTH OF TD09F [OVER FIJI & TONGA] IS GRADUALLY
MOISTENING AND THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TD09F WHEN
MOVING SOUTH.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 178.4W
AT 221800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD09F SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR AND
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. TD09F IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTH
BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH BUT RESISTED
ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON BANDING PATTERN WITH 0.4 WRAP, YIELDING
DT=2.5, MET=2.5 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HRS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

[cycloneye]

Special Weather Bulletin Number 03 for Fiji ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
09F
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:18am on Sunday the 23rd of February 2025

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

Location: 14.1S 178.6W, 230km Northeast of Cikobia or 270km Northeast
of Udu Point.
Status: Tropical Depression, expected to intensify into a tropical
cyclone in the next 12 to 18 hours.
Maximum Winds: 30 knots [55km/hr], gusting to 45 knots [80km/hr],
increasing to 35 knots [65km/hr], gusting to 50 knots [90km/hr] in
the next 12 to 18 hours.
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa.
Movement: Slow moving, expected to move south towards Fiji.

Time of observation or analysis: 9am Fiji Standard Time [FST].

FORECAST POSITION:

* 12hr or 9pm on Sunday : 15.4S 179.1W or 90km East-Northeast of
Cikobia or 120km Northeast of Udu Point. [Confidence: High]
* 24hr or 3am on Monday : 17.3S 179.6W or 65km Southeast of
Taveuni or 140km South-Southeast of Udu Point. [Confidence: High]

LIST OF ALL ACTIVE ALERTS OR WARNINGS

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF VANUA LEVU
[EASTERN MACUATA AND EASTERN CAKAUDROVE], CIKOBIA, NAQELE LEVU,
TAVEUNI, LAU GROUP AND LOMAIVITI GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU,
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU [FROM TAILEVU NORTH THROUGH
RA-RAKIRAKI UP TO TAVUA], YASAWA, MAMANUCA, KADAVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE NORTHERN DIVISION , LAU
AND LOMAIVITI GROUPS.
A HEAVY RAIN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.

SITUATION: A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F LIES TO THE NORTHEAST OF FIJI.
IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING SOUTH TOWARDS
FIJI. IT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER FIJI WATERS BY EVENING TODAY.

FORECAST:
For land areas of the Eastern parts of Vanua Levu [eastern Macuata
and eastern Cakaudrove], Cikobia, Naqele Levu, Taveuni, Lau and
Lomaiviti group:
Expect strong southeasterly winds with wind speeds up to 50km/hr and
gusts up to 65km/hr. Winds possibly increasing up to 65km/hr and
gusts up to 90km/hr from later tonight.
Occasional to periods of rain, heavy at times and squally
thunderstorms. Rain becoming frequent from tonight.
Rough to very rough seas. High seas from later tonight.

For the eastern and northern Viti Levu [from Tailevu North through
Ra-Rakiraki up to Tavua], Yasawa, Mamanuca, Kadavu and nearby smaller
islands:
Strong southeasterly with wind speeds up to 50km/hr and gusts up to
65km/hr.
Occasional showers, increasing to rain and becoming heavy and
frequent from later tonight.


FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP
Cloudy periods with some showers. Showers increasing to rain and
becoming frequent and heavy with squally thunderstorms from tomorrow.
Moderate to fresh southeast winds . Rough seas


POSSIBLE IMPACTS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN:
- Localised flooding of susceptible communities, business and low
lying areas.
- Localised flooding of minor roads, iris crossing and bridges with
some disruption to traffic flow.
- Severe flooding of major rivers which could flood towns and
properties.
- Poor visibility for motorists and mariners.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION:
- Isolated to significant damage to houses of very light materials
and old galvanized iron roofs blown off.
- Possible disruption in communication network and power supply due
to damaged power lines.
- Trees/plants and crops damaged and downed.
- Few small trees can be broken and blocking roads with possible
disruption to traffic flow.
- Localised disruption of essential services.
- High risk of sea travel for all types of sea crafts.
- Coastal flooding of debris along low lying coastal areas possible
especially during high tides.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR KORO SEA, VANUA LEVU AND LAU
WATERS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS.

EXPECT STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS, 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS.
WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS FROM LATER
TONIGHT OVER KORO SEA, VANUA LEVU AND LAU WATERS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH
SEAS. HIGH SEAS FROM LATER TONIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ROUGH SEAS.

POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF HEAVY FALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI FOR TD09F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 02:30PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

[Subtrop]

HURRICANE WARNING 078 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 230710 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [RAY] CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1 SOUTH
178.6 WEST AT 230600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.1S 178.6W at 230600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 8 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
240600 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 16.9S 179.2W AT 231800 UTC
AND NEAR 19.0S 179.7W AT 240600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES GALE WARNING 076.

[Subtrop]

TPPS10 PGTW 231222
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (RAE)
B. 23/1130Z
C. 15.74S
D. 179.07W
E. THREE/HMWRI9
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.15 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 2.5. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO
PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/0631Z 14.98S 178.90W SSMS

RAE

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1893718165437214759

[cycloneye]

Affecting Fiji.

pecial Weather Bulletin Number 11 for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:44am on Monday the 24th of February 2025

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

Location: 17.1S 179.4W or about 50km West-northwest of Vanua Balavu
or about 60km East-Southeast of Taveuni.
Status: Tropical Cyclone [CAT 2].
Maximum Winds: 50 knots [95km/hr], gusting to 70 knots [130km/hr],
increasing to 60 knots [110km/hr], gusting to 85 knots [155km/hr]
from tomorrow morning.
Central Pressure: 982 hPa.
Movement: South-southwest at about 15km/hr towards the Lau group.

Time of observation or analysis: 0800am Fiji Standard Time [FST].

FORECAST POSITION:

* 12hr or 0800pm on Monday : 19.2S 179.6W or 65km East of Matuku
or 75km West-southwest of Kabara. [Confidence: High]
* 24hr or 0800am on Tuesday : 21.5S 179.3W or 110km Southwest of
Ono-I-Lau or about 275km South-southeast of Kabara. [Confidence:
High]

LIST OF ALL ACTIVE ALERTS OR WARNINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR MOALA GROUP.

A STORM WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR VANUA BALAVU, TUVUCA, LAKEBA, MOCE,
CICIA, NAYAU, MAGO, YACATA, KATAFAGA, ONEATA, VATOA, FULAGA, NAIRAI,
GAU, MOALA GROUP.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF VANUA LEVU
[CAKAUDROVE PROVINCE, EASTERN MACUATA AND SOUTHERN BUA], CIKOBIA,
NAQELE LEVU, TAVEUNI, KORO, OVALAU AND ONO I LAU.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU,
NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU [FROM TAILEVU NORTH THROUGH
RA-RAKIRAKI UP TO TAVUA], YASAWA, MAMANUCA, KADAVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.

A HEAVY RAIN WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE FIJI GROUP.

SITUATION: TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [CATEGORY 2] LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF
VANUA LEVU. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAU GROUP.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [RAY] CENTRE 980HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1S
179.3W AT 240600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI VIS AND EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND TRYING TO WRAP INTO
THE SUPPOSED LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE
PAST 3 HOURS. LLCC SEEMS TO BE ELONGATED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM LIES ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTH. GOOD OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTH AND EAST BUT RESISTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE SOUTH WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [RAY] CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6S
178.1W AT 250600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-9 VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE
MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION NOW SHEARED TO THE EAST AND THE LLCC IS NOW PARTIALLY
EXPOSED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE CYCLONE LIES TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTRIPOCAL RIDGE AND IS BEING STEERED
SOUTHEASTWARDS. GOOD OUTFLOW REMAINS PERSITENT TO THE EAST BUT
RESISTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 26 TO 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.