WPAC: 03W - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

96W INVEST 250623 0000 14.0N 119.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 231200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231200Z-240600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 23JUN25 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR
25.9N 143.9E, APPROXIMATELY 604 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 230900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3N
118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 122 NM WEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231023Z SSMIS F17 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING AND FLARING CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
WITH MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG ITS TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

06Z EPS

[mrbagyo]

It has really good rotation on it with lots of moisture to work with.
I'd say this has a strong chance of reaching named storm status.

[cycloneye]

[Hayabusa]

Up to medium

ABPW10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231800Z-240600ZJUN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 23JUN25 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 02W (SEPAT) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 27.0N 143.0E, APPROXIMATELY 526 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA,
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 231500) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.3N 118.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 118.7E, APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
WEST OF MANILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT A BROAD ELONGATED AREA OF ROTATION WITH SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING,
DEEP FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 231430Z ASCAT-
C ALSO REVEALS 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LLCC, HOWEVER THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT THESE WINDS ARE WRAPPING
INTO THE CIRCULATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS REVEAL STEADY DEVELOPMENT WITH A
WEST-NORTHWESTERN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

12Z

[Hayabusa]

JMA TD since 00z

WWJP27 RJTD 240000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240000.
WARNING VALID 250000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 16N 116E WNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

06Z EPS

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PGTW 250200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6N 114.4E TO 21.4N 110.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.7N 114.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.8N 116.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PERSISTING NEAR THE LLCC. THE LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA PRECLUDE A HIGH CONFIDENCE
ASSESSMENT OF THE PRECISE POSITION OF THE LLCC, OTHER THAN TO SAY IT IS
TUCKED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT INVEST 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONTINUED, BUT
SLOW, DEVELOPMENT OF 96W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BOTH THE GEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK TOWARDS THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260200Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[cycloneye]

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD, TD 03W WILL MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 12 AND
TAU 24 ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND, AND WEAKEN BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD DUE TO TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION BY TAU 36.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TD 03W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36 IS 60NM. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WIL MAINTAIN 25-30KTS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER
LANDFALL.

[cycloneye]

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 110.1E.
26JUN25. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
231 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
03W WITH A COMPACT, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE SYSTEM IN ANALYZED TO HAVE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA AT AROUND 0200Z. 03W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE REMNANT VORTEX MAKES ITS WAY FURTHER INLAND. TERRAIN
INTERACTION AND MODERATE (20 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
CAUSE 03W TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF 03W, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 260600Z IS
1003 MB. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (SEPAT) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN