WPAC: KAJIKI - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: 19W - Tropical Depression

#21 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Aug 22, 2025 11:37 pm

StormWeather wrote:Mods please update this to Kajiki

WTPQ51 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2513 KAJIKI (2513) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 17.6N 116.4E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
12HF 231200UTC 18.3N 114.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 240000UTC 18.3N 111.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 250000UTC 18.4N 107.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 260000UTC 19.1N 103.6E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Also JTWC went with 40kts for 00z according to the ATCF.

Updated the title
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 23, 2025 9:05 am

This thing is trying to form an eye based on Xisha's radar

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 23, 2025 11:30 am

Xisha @ 1500z

AAXX 23151 59981 04910 /2714 10266 20263 39953 49960 57047 61152 764// 333 10294 20256 3/025 5000/ 54415 59137 61041 71148 90720 91126

MSLP - 996 hPa
MSW - 50 kph
104mm over the past 6 hrs
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sat Aug 23, 2025 5:27 pm

Holy cow!
 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1959379765833720128



JMA says this is already a Typhoon. With this structure, I wouldn't rule out a HE C3/LE C4 peak before landfall in Vietnam.
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#25 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 23, 2025 6:12 pm

Last frame before Xisha radar stopped sending data
Image

Here are the latest radar frames from
Sanya
Image

Wanning
Image


Zhaoshu is a little bit more north of the radar site

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#26 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Aug 23, 2025 6:50 pm

Eye is starting to appear on visible light.
VHT are still rotating around it. RI is underway



Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2025 9:32 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#28 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 24, 2025 4:28 am

It's moving NW over the last couple of frames - eyewall might clip Sanya
Image
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#29 Postby StormWeather » Sun Aug 24, 2025 4:37 am

I had a feeling this would get much stronger than expected.
Last edited by StormWeather on Sun Aug 24, 2025 5:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#30 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 24, 2025 4:55 am

Image

Sanya now reporting typhoon strength gust
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#31 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 24, 2025 5:47 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#32 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Aug 24, 2025 5:57 am

mrbagyo wrote:It's moving NW over the last couple of frames - eyewall might clip Sanya
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bNBlp.gif


I wonder what the current intensity is. It looks a lot more organized in every frame
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#33 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 24, 2025 6:01 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#34 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 24, 2025 6:34 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#35 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Aug 24, 2025 7:37 am

Image

:uarrow: From TYboard forum
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#36 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Aug 24, 2025 11:25 am

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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#37 Postby Ulf » Sun Aug 24, 2025 4:16 pm

Structural deterioration from land interaction with Hainan might mean this will miss its chance at major and first very strong typhoon status of the season.

JTWC no longer forecasts any more strengthening due to less ocean heat content in the Gulf of Tonkin.
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Re: WPAC: KAJIKI - Typhoon

#38 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2025 8:28 pm

Image
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