NATL: IMELDA - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

925 vorticity

850

Eastern side of Hispaniola is the lowest terrain

[blp]

Its on the coast.

[TomballEd]

Looks like Euro ensembles like a US landfall, most from 94L but a few Humberto's as well.

[kevin]

Looks like ICON is playing catch up. 12z is now running and already shows a closed 1010 mb system at +21hr whereas this wasn't the case until +57hr in the 06z run.

[tolakram]

The Euro AI model still shows the older solution, I would have thought it would have changed first. Of course the AI model might still be correct and this goes out to sea.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS forecasting about 20 knots of shear with a 90-degree twist when this crosses the Gulfstream.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS forecasting about 20 knots of shear with a 90-degree twist when this crosses the Gulfstream.

983mb
12Z 9/30/25

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eus_21.png

[TampaWxLurker]

12z Icon stronger and closer to South Florida at 96 hours. 991mb Cat 1 headed NNW, just west of Great Abaco.

[BobHarlem]

12z icon stalls in the Bahamas then gets pulled out and crosses Bermuda, no US landfall on this one.

[TampaWxLurker]

That is a downright ugly solution for Bermuda.

[Kazmit]

12z ICON is sticking with its guns - very similar solution to 12z yesterday. The storm gets plenty strong but still gets slingshotted by Humberto.

[Teban54]

A bit late, but 6z model intensities of 94L:

HAFS-A Parent (initialized on Humberto):

• Peak: 982 mb / 111 hrs
• Stalls offshore GA/SC, Fujiwhara with Humberto

HAFS-A (initialized on 94L):

• Peak: 982 mb / 75 kt (Cat 1) / 108 hrs
• Landfall near GA/SC border (very slightly weakened)

HAFS-B Parent (initialized on Humberto):

• Peak: 975 mb / 102 hrs
• Stalls north of the Bahamas, Fujiwhara with Humberto

HAFS-B (initialized on 94L):

• Peak: 978 mb / 67 kt (Cat 1) / 111 hrs
• Landfall near GA/SC border (very slightly weakened)

HWRF Parent (initialized on Humberto):

• Peak: Unclear, likely Cat 1/2 around 980 mb
• Landfall near SC/NC border

HWRF (initialized on 94L):

• Peak: 964 mb / 103 kt (Cat 3) / 108 hrs
• Landfall in Wilmington, NC at peak intensity

HMON:

• Peak: 981 mb / 80 kt (Cat 1) / 108 hrs -- this frame is already inland, so peak wind could be higher
• Landfall in Georgetown, SC at peak intensity

GFS:

• Peak: 980s / 126 hrs
• Landfall in Charleston, SC at peak intensity

ECMWF:

• Peak: 980s / 120 hrs
• Landfall just west of Charleston, SC at peak intensity

Assuming that hurricane models initialized on storm X has a better handle of X itself than the other storm Y, some observations (especially viewed together with the Humberto runs):

• A Cat 1 landfall somewhere in GA/SC/NC, especially SC, seems very likely
• The models that go higher (HWRF-94L) are likely underestimating Humberto. A stronger Humberto may limit 94L's potential to become a MH.
• 94L may stall either just before or after landfall -- flooding may be a bigger threat than wind speed alone

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Kazmit]

That is a downright ugly solution for Bermuda.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a model run with a cat 5 landfall on Bermuda. A cat 5 has never even come within 400 miles of the island. Although of course, it’s possible.

[Teban54]

And then there's 12z ICON... Still avoiding a US landfall, but with a 920 mb 94L right through Bermuda (even stronger than Humberto), after a Dorian-esque stall on Grand Bahama.

There are certainly times when ICON was the only one that got it right... Erin comes to mind. Will it happen again this time?

[Teban54]

12z GFS is much stronger (and faster) with 94L in the short term: already down to 982 mb at 78 hrs, when previously it only had a TS at this time. Humberto's intensity remains relatively unchanged from previous runs.

Trend:

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS Georgetown, SC landfall in 4 1/2 days. May wind up in western NC too (same area Helene went)

[TampaWxLurker]

12z GFS has zero stall and slams a Cat 2 into SC between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, between +102 & +108 hrs.

Edit: Heads northwest thru upstate SC and northern GA and loops into northeastern AL. Would be a major flooding issue.

[Teban54]

12z GFS Georgetown, SC landfall in 4 1/2 days
https://i.imgur.com/hZVaaVA.png

Stronger than last run (where it only peaked in the 980s). The previous frame on this run was actually slightly more intense at 975 mb.

[tolakram]

GFS develops this fast, if it's slower than perhaps the Euro solution and if even slower then the ICON??? The ICON seems to be the most timing oriented as it needs to be in almost that exact spot to move out to sea.

[tolakram]

The Canadian wants yet another unique solution.